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Updated 17 November 2004
Consequences (title)
Consequences Vol. 5, No. 2, 1999








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Guest Editorial
by Antonio Divino Moura, Director, Phillip A. Arkin, Deputy Director, IRI


For at least the last 100,000 years El Niños have been a dominant cause of year-to-year climatic variations over much of the world. Although they have been known and studied by generations of scientists, it is only in the last few years that they have at last become predictable.


The El Niño that came to stay in March of 1997 was the greatest of modern times in terms of the amplitude and duration of its impacts on the weather in Asia, Oceania, North and South America, and Africa. It was also the most thoroughly observed and one of the first for which advance warnings were available and acted upon.


Improved seasonal and interannual climate predictions, such as those that have recently become available for El Niños and La Niñas, can benefit nearly every area of modern life. Getting the most from these new-found but necessarily probabilistic projections will require the active involvement of planners and decision makers, repeated practice, and a certain amount of public education.


Notice to Readers and Libraries

This is the final issue of CONSEQUENCES, which since 1995 has been a joint endeavor of Saginaw Valley State University, our Agency sponsors and Scientific Editorial Board, InterNetwork, Inc., and many distinguished authors and scientific reviewers. We are particularly indebted to the Vice President for Academic Affairs at SVSU, Dr. Robert S. P. Yien, and to thousands of our readers, around the world.

Jack and Barbara Eddy, Editors


Articles published in CONSEQUENCES may be freely photocopied for classroom use. No formal permission is required. Requests to republish articles from CONSEQUENCES in other printed or electronic publications may be sought by contacting the U.S. Global Change Research Information Office at the address given at the end of this issue.


CONSEQUENCES was produced and distributed without charge as a public service to provide reliable assessments of practical concerns related to the national and international consequences of changes in the global environment.

Funding was provided by


Opinions that accompany factual information in each article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent an official position of the U.S. government.


A publication of Saginaw Valley State University pursuant to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Award No. NA56GP0028.

ISSN 1080-5702 Volume 5 Number 2 1999



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