ENSO Forecasts
The simulation of the evolution of the atmosphere and ocean using
coupled models has yielded a demonstrated ability to predict the
onset of the El Niñ o-Southern Oscillation warming, known to
be central to short-term variability in the Earth's climate system.
Experimental predictions from these models can now be used to
provide advance warning to national and international decision
makers, which allows them to adjust planting schedules and crop
selection in anticipation on anomalous climate patterns associated
with ENSO. Using ENSO-based rainfall forecasts, Peruvians have been
able to sustain the gross value of their agricultural sector, increasing
it 3% in 1987 in spite of the moderate 1986-87 ENSO event (in
contrast to a 14% decrease in 1983, accompanying the devastating
1982-83 ENSO event). In Ceará , Brazil during the drought of
1991-92, a systematic effort to organize the timing of seeding, based
on prediction information, maintained agricultural production close
to the historical annual mean. A multinational capacity is currently
being developed to improve the ability to make accurate regional
climate forecasts, and to distribute this information to affected
nations in a format that most effectively addresses their specific
conditions and needs.
Fisherman image © 1993 Paul Grabhorn