Recent Accomplishments in Integrative Modeling
and Prediction of the Earth System
- A pilot project has been completed to train an initial group of
international scientists in seasonal to interannual climate modeling
and forecasting and in interpreting these forecasts for regional
application by decision makers for management of resources affected
by ENSO events.
- Data sets from the period 1985-1989, during which a significant
ENSO event occurred, have been improved and are available for
worldwide use by global change researchers studying climate
variability and atmospheric chemistry. These data sets were
developed using a prototype model for assimilating global
atmospheric data such as temperature, moisture, and wind fields.
- The use of parallel supercomputers and new algorithms to
increase the computing speed of general circulation models has led to
improved resolution of the global ocean circulation and improved
representation of global atmospheric chemistry, providing the basis
for more detailed simulations of potential future changes in the Earth
- Preliminary comparison of results from the international
Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project show close agreement
for prediction of the latitudinal variations of surface pressure and
upper tropospheric wind, reasonable agreement for prediction of the
major latitudinal zones of high and low precipitation, and good
agreement with observations for the simulation period 1979-1988.