PROGRAM TITLE:  	Climate Diagnostics and Experimental Prediction
ACTIVITY STREAM:  	Modeling  
SCIENCE ELEMENT:  	Climate and Hydrologic Systems

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

DESCRIPTION:  Predictive understanding of Earth system behavior on time 
scales of primary human interest (seasons to centuries) is the unifying goal
 of the USGCRP.  NOAA directly addresses this goal with its Climate and 
Global Change Program which focuses on production of quantitative 
predictions and reliable assessments of global change and its regional 
implications on time scales of seasons to a century.  The Climate Dynamics 
and Experimental 
Prediction (CDEP) project provides an important means for supplying these 
predictions and assessments on an organized, routine basis.  CDEP is designed 
to employ integrative models as the central tool for achieving constantly 
improving predictive insight into Earth system behavior and for relating 
individual research projects of the USGCRP meaningfully to one another.

CDEP has four primary areas of interest:  coupled model development, 
climate diagnostics, experimental prediction, and IPCC-related modeling.  
CDEP now supports a number of critical long-term modeling and diagnostic 
efforts including the development of an operational climate data assimilation 
system to supplement the weather-related capabilities of NMC, development, 
testing, and application of an operational ocean model, the derivation of 
useful model-based air-sea fluxes, and the historical reanalysis of observed 
atmospheric fields.

CDEP's primary areas of emphasis in FY 1995 and beyond are (i) to establish a 
broad community-wide coupled model development program in partnership 
with other agencies, (ii) to strengthen the system of routine experimental 
climate prediction activities at major U.S. research institutions; and (iii) to 
serve the assessment needs of the USGCRP through an expanded program of 
climate diagnostics and analytical studies and explicit contributions to a CEES 
interagency effort to apply Earth system modeling in support of assessment 
activities of the IPCC.  CDEP will not only develop improved models which 
effectively represent the interactions of the physical, chemical and biological 
earth system, but will undertake exploratory efforts at coupling physical and 
biogeochemical processes with socio-economic processes to study the societal 
impact of climate change and the effect of human activity on climate.

Current climate modeling is severely limited by computer resources, low 
speed data links, and lack of uniform protocols for model output.  CDEP, 
therefore, includes resources for general improvement in computational 
infrastructure, in particular, easily usable and available supercomputer time 
and improved data highways.

STAKEHOLDERS:  CDEP provides an integrating mechanism for modeling 
activities that are generated in the process research domain from a number of 
USGCRP Programs including TOGA, WOCE, GEWEX, ACCP, Atmospheric 
Chemistry, and Economics.  Internationally, CDEP will make important 
contributions to the Climate System Modeling Program (CSMP)of the WCRP 
and the Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modeling (GAIM) Program of the 
IGBP.

SHORT-TERM POLICY PAYOFFS:  CDEP supports the IPCC process by 
focussing on short-term improvements in earth system models upon which 
IPCC assessments are based.  With its focus on end-to-end modeling of the 
interactions between the earth system and human activity, CDEP provides 
timely predictions as a basis for assessments of natural and forced climate 
change and an ability to evaluate alternative mitigation and adaptation 
strategies.

PROGRAM CONTACT:  Mike Patterson, Office of Global Programs, 1100 
Wayne Avenue, Suite 1225, Silver Spring, MD 20910, (301) 427-2089 X12.