PROGRAM TITLE: Climate Research ACTIVITY STREAM: Processes, Modeling, Assessment , Observations/DataManagement SCIENCE ELEMENT:Climate and Hydrological System, Ecological Systems and Dynamics DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY DESCRIPTION: Climate research was initiated more than a decade ago by DOE when it became apparent that the increase of atmospheric CO2 can be attributed to humankind's use of fossil energy. Goals are to understand natural and human influences that affect climate, and to provide predictive models for analyzing climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases and other factors. Specific objectives are to develop data and models of how changes in the Earth's radiative balance may affect climate at global and regional scales and provide predictions of climate change. The model results describe the time rate of change and the magnitude of the change, and climate data provide the basis for determining if climate is changing. Model studies encompass the coupled climate system of the atmosphere, ocean, biosphere and cryosphere, and a key element is the well-renowned Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) which includes international intercomparisons of GCMs such as WCRP/WGNE Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The PCMDI emphasis is on climate feedback processes (e.g., clouds and snow/ice albedo feedbacks) and the regional/interannual climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases and the AMIP research compares model output to reference period 1979-1988. Some 18 AMIP subprojects have been organized to examine the specific physical processes and phenomena including the Southern Oscillation and the monsoon. Each subproject is led by one of the 35 participating modeling centers or by one of the 100 participating scientists. STAKEHOLDERS: The data provide the basic information necessary for demonstrating that climate is changing. Such information is used by scientists to further assess why changes are occurring and how well the models are performing. The policy community requires the data, the model output, and the subsequent analyses to feed into integrated assessments. Virtually all modeling centers in the world are participating in the intercomparison projects. The results establish the basis for model improvement as well as indicate the uncertainty in model output that is used for integrated assessments. SHORT-TERM POLICY PAYOFFS: Results on climate modeling and detection are used worldwide by both science and policy communities to evaluate climate change. Current research is directed at understanding the limits of these predictions for the policy process as well as providing a basis for model improvement. Data and model studies are also used to determine if climate change is occurring and if the cause can be attributed to greenhouse gases and human activities. The research directly supports integrated assessments by providing estimates of the rate and magnitude of global and regional climate change. Such products are essential for national and international understanding of the uncertainties in the evidence for climate change and in the prediction of climate change. Further, the current products provide an assessment of the limits on the predictions for consideration in policy discussions. The information is a centerpiece for integrated assessments (e.g., IPCC, ICCAM), for developing response strategies for the Climate Convention, and supporting the National Energy Policy Act. PROGRAM CONTACT:Michael R. Riches, DOE, ER-74, Washington, DC 20585, 301-903-3264