PROGRAM TITLE: 	Integrated Assessment of Global Change
SCIENCE ELEMENT:	Human Dimensions


DESCRIPTION:  The objective is to improve the ability of decisionmakers to 
evaluate the benefits and costs, including non-monetary values, of actions to 
mitigate or adapt to global climate change.  This research granting program, 
first initiated in 1993, supports the development of integrated (end-to-end) 
assessment of global climate change.  Program priorities were set by an 
advisory committee made up of the major Federal granting agencies, the DOE 
Policy Office, and the community of integrated modelers.  Program direction 
is highly coordinated with the other Federal granting agencies.  The research 
program supports two topics: (1) the conduct of integrated analysis itself, 
which will be phased in through 1996; this research requires a strong 
interdisciplinary environment so that both natural and social science 
communities contribute to integrated assessments, and (2) the support of basic 
research on selected subjects that are common to all integrated assessment 
models.  In 1993, the primary subject is forecasting technology innovation and 
diffusion.  The results of integrated assessments are extremely sensitive to 
assumptions of how to forecast and structure the model to accommodate 
future technology changes, a subject highlighted by the Intergovernmental 
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Energy Modeling Forum, and others.  To 
oversimplify, "top-down" models generally assume that increased energy 
conservation is linked to significantly increased costs, and "bottom-down" 
models generally assume that further energy efficiency can be achieved at 
little or no cost.  Another focused subject area in 1993 is the search for a 
rational way to trade off the impacts of one greenhouse gas with another 
greenhouse gas so that more efficient policy actions (more freedom to 
develop cost-effective solutions) can be implemented.  The research expands 
on the concept of the Global Warming Potential by including the economic 
implications of a changing damage function and indirect economic impacts, 
such as CO2 fertilization effects. 

STAKEHOLDERS:  The primary beneficiaries of the research are the policy 
offices in DOE, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Executive Office of 
the President, the Congress, private sector decisionmakers, and community of 
integrated assessment modelers.  The program contributes to the IPCC, the 
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, the Human Dimensions 
of Global Change Programme of the International Social Science Council, the 
Energy Modeling Forum, and coordinates with the Electric Power Research 
Institute.  The major program direction complements programs of the other 
Federal agencies and is coordinated with the modeling and process task 

SHORT-TERM POLICY PAYOFFS:   The payoffs will appear as better 
integrated models, suited to evaluate the kinds of policy questions asked of 
them, and as credible as possible both because of their economics 
sophistication and their connection to the natural and social sciences.  These 
models will directly support  policy formulation by estimating the benefits 
(including non-market valuation) and costs of a broad range of policy 
alternatives, such as greenhouse gas emission strategies, the value of shifting 
emissions to a later time period (for instance, carbon sequestration), the 
impact of mitigation and adaptation research as a policy alternative, and 
adaptation strategies.  The models may also be used to better highlight high 
priority research areas for the natural and social sciences.

PROGRAM CONTACT:  John C. Houghton, DOE, ER-74, Washington, DC 
20585, 301-903-8288