PROGRAM TITLE: Earth System Modeling and Global Analysis Program ACTIVITY STREAMS: Integrative Modeling & Prediction, Assessment SCIENCE ELEMENT:Climate and Hydrologic Systems Biogeochemical Dynamics Ecological Systems & Dynamics Data & Information Management NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION SCIENTIFIC MERIT: The Earth System Modeling and Global Analysis Program will help Earth system scientists understand and predict global change by promoting, coordinating, and financially supporting the development of global-scale models and numerical tools for diagnosing and predicting natural and man-made global environmental change. Specific responsibilities cover the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, land-surface, and biosphere on spatial scales ranging from supra-regional (e.g. ocean basin, major drainage basin, and/or continental) through global, and include temporal scales from seasons through decades to centuries. This modeling capability along with data from other sources will be used to help understand how the Earth's interactive system functions, and to simulate and reliably predict the consequences of stressing the global environment. The Program is responsible for planning, implementing, and managing a broad based research program which will contribute to an improved understanding of the earth's fully coupled physical, chemical and biological climate system, its interactions, and predictability through the multidisciplinary exploitation of space-based, airborne, and ground-based observations, numerical modeling, and climate impact assessment and sensitivity studies. The Program incorporates the following elements: (1) global model development and integration; (2) global data assimilation and analysis; and (3) climate diagnostics, sensitivity studies, and impact assessment. Each element provides a focus for conducting interdisciplinary research which addresses the overall science objectives of the US Global Change Research Program (GCRP) and, in particular, those which involve the Earth Observing System (EOS). Particular attention is placed on the scientific problems related to global warming and ozone depletion. The Program is organized into five component programs with the following goals: The goals of the Global Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Program are to develop global-scale models of the atmospheric climate, to interactively couple such models with other component models of the Earth system, to develop model-driven data assimilation systems that produce research quality climatic datasets, and to use both models and datasets to assess global climate variability and trends that affect the Earth system. The goals of the Oceans and Ice Modeling and Analysis Program are to promote the development and application of coupled Earth system models which assimilate satellite and other data to produce internally consistent, comprehensive ocean and sea ice data sets on supra-regional to global scales. The end result of this research is the production of geophysical, chemical, and biological data fields for model testing and validation, as well as for generalized analysis of earth system variability and trends. The goals of the Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling and Analysis Program are to promote the development, validation, and application of regional to global scale computational models representing the chemical state of the Earth's troposphere and stratosphere and to study the chemical distribution of the Earth's troposphere and stratosphere using spatially and/or temporally extended data sets in the context of multidimensional numerical models. A particular emphasis of the program is the way in which meteorological processes affect the trace constituent composition of the troposphere and stratosphere. The goals of the Land/Biosphere Modeling and Analysis Program are to promote the development, validation, and application of regional to global scale computational models representing land surface and biospheric processes and their interactions with the dynamic atmosphere, along with the development of parameterized representations of these processes for use in coupled Earth system models. The goals of the Global Change Data Analysis Program are to promote the development and validation of retrospective and current global data sets for use in specifying initial conditions and boundary conditions for global change model experiments, sensitivity studies and climate impact assessments, and to provide information for model validation in the context of specified global change scenarios.This includes the development of software and systems for visualization of global data derived from satellite remote sensing and model output. The program also supports the coordination of national and international inter-sensor and inter-satellite calibration activities to insure the quality of the global data. STAKEHOLDERS: Overall activities are guided by the planning and coordination of the interagency Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences (CEES) and the Working Group on Global Change Research. In addition, the program is coordinated with various other committees which work to define the elements of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (e.g., the National Research Council's Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate and it subordinate panels). On the international level, the program activities are closely coupled with the projects coordinated by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP), such as WOCE, TOGA/COARE, and GEWEX. The Program also sponsors NASA participation in the periodic IPCC climate impact and WMO ozone assessments. POLICY RELEVANCE: Primary -- Climate Change and Global Warming -- Stratospheric Ozone and UV-B Radiation Secondary -- Ecological Change & Biodiversity -- Seasonal and Interannual Prediction PROGRAM CONTACT:Robert A. Schiffer Office of Mission to Planet Earth NASA Headquarters, Code YS Washington, DC 20546 tel: 202-358-0258 fax: 202-358-2770 E-mail: R.SCHIFFER/ omnet