PROGRAM TITLE: Ecological Rates of Change (EROC) ACTIVITY STREAM: Process, Observe, Model SCIENCE ELEMENT:Ecological Systems NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION SCIENTIFIC MERIT: The purpose of EROC is to support research on how global change, especially climate change, affects ecological processes. Both natural and human-induced changes are included. This program underpins predictions of biotic responses to change, through quantifying changes in ecosystem functions, and in plant and animal frequency and abundance in time and space. Research concentrates on processes affecting ecological rates of change in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, habitats, and ecotones, and in species interactions, abundance and distributional limits, biological diversity, and gene pools. Results from EROC supported research will lead to predictions of rates of adaptation, habitat modification and biome shifts. EROC also contributes to understanding the ecological processes that influence the Earth, including effects of the biota on climate, the geosphere and atmosphere. Large-scale experiments include soil warming, carbon dioxide augmentation, and landscape manipulations. In the network, ecological variables, including trace gas fluxes and biological diversity, are monitored across a range of ecosystem types. Models incorporating climate change and based on comparative data sets are being developed. STAKEHOLDERS: The program supports multi-disciplinary research projects. EROC complements other NSF programs such as ARCSS and GLOBEC, which also focus on understanding the interplay between biological systems and global change processes. It contributes to research conducted by oceanographic and atmospheric scientists through NSF programs as well as at mission agencies, and provides critical information for Global Circulation Models. It adds to programs in the U.S. Forest Service (Forest Health Monitoring Program), to DOE's Research Parks Network of ecological sites, and to the EMAP program at the EPA. It links to interagency interactions through the SBI and TRIG projects and to international efforts such as the IGBP and the Diversitas program (IUBS, SCOPE, UNESCO). POLICY RELEVANCE: Field experiments, observations and modeling will identify the ecological processes, essential for ecosystem health, which affect and are most affected by global change. EROC research provides the knowledge for predicting ecological change; knowledge needed to inform policy formulation related to biodiversity, desertification and all aspects of biological resource management. PROGRAM CONTACT:Scott Collins, Ecological Studies Program Director