PROGRAM TITLE: Regional Climate Change Impact Assessment ACTIVITY STREAM: Assessment and Process Studies SCIENCE ELEMENT:
Climatic and Hydrologic Systems TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY (TVA)SCIENTIFIC MERIT: TVA is conducting assessments of how climate changes and variations may affect its various programs and the resources of the TVA region. The reservoir system, power system, natural resources, agriculture, silviculture, and economic development are all subject to this concern. Improvements in understanding the natural processes in the TVA region and the effects of human activities on them will also be gained from this assessment program. An integrating theme is to improve the capacity to assess the effects of global change at regional scales on intensively managed natural terrestrial ecosystems. The approach involves development of regional climate scenarios to assess, analysis of regional-global climate pattern relationships, assessment of potential impacts in each program area and on an integrated basis, and strategic planning to develop options or contingency plans. Initial screening has been conducted and climate scenario impact assessments have been started. An initial regional climatic data base is being expanded. Three climate scenarios for the next 30-50 years and a "no change" climate have been defined. Scenario methods of others and output from regional climate models initialized by output from global climate models will be evaluated to improve TVA region scenarios. STAKEHOLDERS: Cooperative efforts and coordination with other federal water resource and land management agencies such as USDA (USFS, SCS, etc.), DOI (USGS, NPS, etc.), and USACE; EPA, DOE (including Oak Ridge National Laboratory), NASA, NOAA (NWS climate organizations and three regional climate centers), and the Southern Appalachian Man and the Biosphere consortium; and interactions with Electric Power Research Institute, NCAR, and university researchers. State governments, utilities, environmental organizations, and industry and commerce in the region should all benefit, and results and methods may transfer to other parts of the nation and the world. POLICY RELEVANCE: Sensitivities to climate changes/variations will be identified and strategic planning will be initiated. Assessment methodologies and improved knowledge of terrestrial-atmospheric processes on this regional scale will provide information for improving resource management, adaptation and mitigation strategies, and education of policymakers and the public in this country and other parts of the world. Regional-scale considerations are a critical part of the national and international concerns regarding the issue of global change. PROGRAM CONTACTS: James F. Meagher, TVA, P.O. Box 1010, Muscle Shoals, AL 35660, (205) 386-2342 (Programmatic); Norris A. Nielsen, same address, (205) 386-3036 (Scientific).