PROGRAM TITLE:  	Human Activities and Natural Resource Changes 
(HUMANI)
ACTIVITY STREAMS:  	Process/Model integration; Assessment.
SCIENCE ELEMENT:  	Human Interactions/Economics
 
 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Forest Service

DESCRIPTION:  This program addresses the integration of human 
dimensions into global change: how changes in vegetation will affect human 
activities and how human activities, through resource management, will 
affect global change. 
 
Forest policy and carbon sequestration -- analysis of the potential impacts 
of alternative forestry policies on atmospheric CO2, including carbon 
emissions  and sequestration in vegetation, soils, and wood products.  
Alternative forest  management policies include harvest level and methods 
on public forests, recycling, wood products, tree planting, and urban forestry.  
 
Effects of land use and human disturbance on potential vegetation -- 
models that project changes in vegetation composition and growth as a 
consequence of  climate change are evolving to integrate land use pattern and 
intensity of human disturbance with atmospheric effects.  This effort 
overlays the human dimensions on potential vegetation maps, and 
highlights the feedbacks between social and biological systems.
 
Effects of global change on forest resource outputs and values -- the effects of 
global change on forests, especially the transient effects, are expected to have a 
major impact on forest resource outputs and values to society.  Research is 
underway to evaluate the effects of global change on (1) human uses of forests 
for recreation, water, and timber, (2) jobs and communities, (3) biological 
diversity and other forest amenities, and (4) public opinion and options for 
mitigating and adapting to change.
 
Ecosystem management opportunities for mitigation and adaptation -- 
Appropriate response options for land managers to adapt or help mitigate 
global change effects are being identified, and the effects of such actions on 
the economy and on greenhouse gas concentrations will be quantified.
 
Research is accomplished by developing integrated models of forest 
vegetation, forest products, and the economy.  TERRA, an interagency 
laboratory, facilitates model integration and regional analysis through the 
application of systems analysis techniques.  Research underway includes 
economic analyses of market and non-market effects, sociological case 
studies, and identification of historical relationships between climate change, 
ecosystems, and society.
 
Products and performance measures are peer-reviewed publications, 
substantial contributions to national and international assessments, and 
interactions with regional and local stakeholders to resolve management 
issues.
 
STAKEHOLDERS:  Policy makers, land managers, timber producers and 
users, amenity users, other USDA agencies, other Federal agencies (DOE, 
EPA, NASA).
 
SHORT-TERM POLICY PAYOFFS:  Input to President's greenhouse gas 
emission policy; long-term strategic planning for natural resources.