Department of Commerce/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and National Institute of Standards and Technology

Areas of Global Change Research. NOAA's global change efforts are designed to provide a predictive understanding of the climate system and its modes of variability, and to advance the application of this information in climate-sensitive sectors through a suite of process research, observations and modeling, and application and assessment activities. Specifically, NOAA's research program includes ongoing efforts in operational in situ and satellite observations with an emphasis on oceanic and atmospheric dynamics, circulation, and chemistry; understanding and predicting ocean-land-atmosphere interactions, the global hydrological cycle, the role of ocean circulation, and biogeochemical dynamics in climate change; improvements in climate modeling, prediction, and information management capabilities; the projection and assessment of seasonal to interannual and decadal to centennial climate changes; the study of the relationship between the natural climate system and society; and archiving, management, and dissemination of data and information useful for global change research. NIST research is developing the science base to predict the fate and disposition of chemicals in the environment, environmentally benign alternatives, and measurement techniques for key environmental species in the atmosphere.

DOC Program Title FY97 FY98 FY99
NIST Global Change 1.4 2.4 9.4
NOAA Aerosols Project 1.2 1.1 1.1
NOAA Atmospheric Chemistry Project 6.8 6.8 7.0
NOAA Climate Change Data and Detection 4.2 4.0 4.1
NOAA Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction 13.3 15.6 16.1
NOAA Climate Observations 10.0 6.1 6.4
NOAA Climate Variability (CLIVAR-GOALS, ACCP/WOCE) 10.7 10.6 11.0
NOAA Economics and Human Dimensions of Climate Fluctuations 1.4 1.8 1.9
NOAA Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) 5.0 5.2 5.4
NOAA Health of the Atmosphere * 0.7 0.7 0.7
NOAA Ocean-Atmosphere Carbon Exchange Study (OACES/JGOFS) 2.7 4.1 4.2
NOAA Paleoclimatology (PAGES) 4.0 4.0 4.1
NOAA Subtotal  60.0 60.0 62.0
Total  61.5 62.4
President's Request  70.9 62.3 71.4
* Not formally part of the NOAA Climate and Global Change Program; funding is transferred to the NOAA Health and the Atmosphere Program
NIST National Institute of Standards and Technology
NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

FY99 Program Highlights. In FY99, NOAA will continue to advance understanding of 1) the study of the dynamic climate system and its modes of variability, for example the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); and 2) the application of information generated by this research to decisionmaking processes in climate-sensitive regions and sectors, such as agriculture, water management, hydropower, human health, and transportation infrastructure.

The influence of the Atlantic Ocean on climate is thought to be as important as the ENSO, yet the understanding of Atlantic modes of variability is not nearly as advanced. NOAA, together with international partners, is expanding ocean-atmosphere observations into the Atlantic in a pilot mode. The Atlantic Observing System is built from the same proven technologies used in the Pacific ENSO Observing System.

In FY99, the Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (GOALS) research project will continue its priority research to improve the understanding, modeling, and prediction of ENSO, its teleconnections globally beyond the tropics to the extratropics, and its variability from decade to decade. A significant new research thrust is being mounted to improve regional-scale modeling and prediction of seasonal to interannual variability over North America.

During FY99, the current phase of the GEWEX Continental-scale International Project (GCIP) will begin moving to its fourth and final area, the Missouri River Basin. The work will complement other ongoing studies in the eastern Mississippi River Basin aimed at developing ways of using climate forecasts in water management at both the local and state levels and in a major national water management agency such as U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

The Ocean/Atmosphere Carbon Exchange Study (OACES) focuses on measuring the transfer of CO2 between the atmosphere and the ocean, to reduce the uncertainty in ocean uptake and air-sea exchange, both seasonally and spatially. These oceanographic and atmospheric data are then used to constrain models of the global carbon cycle. FY99 plans include completion of the global ocean CO2 survey, with a focus on the influence of the North Atlantic on the global carbon, freshwater, nutrient, and heat budgets.

The overarching goal of the Atlantic Climate Change Program (ACCP) is to understand and model the long-term variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and tropical Atlantic variability, and offer ways to monitor and forecast the evolving state of these two phenomena, including their influence on the neighboring continental regions.

Applied Research Centers are implemented as part of the Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction (CDEP) program element. Prediction research is developing both a suite of state-of-the-art climate models and mechanisms for integrating the output of multiple models into a single prediction system for the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Prediction and the National Weather Service.

The Climate Change Data and Detection (CCDD) program element supports data assembly, processing, inventory, distribution, and archiving for a variety of national and international programs. Planned activities include the development of data sets tailored to the study of natural hazards and extremes in weather events, the enhancement of the Nation's ability to monitor critical aspects of climate change by ensuring the integrity of the long-term climate record, and support for producing new and/or improved data sets for the next major scientific assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

To enhance the use of paleoclimatic data in making improved climate predictions, NOAA's Paleoclimatology efforts are particularly being directed toward a detailed study of the climatic variability of the last 400 years (globally) and the last 1,000 years (where possible), and a comprehensive study of climate variability given climatic states and forcing that are significantly different from today.

The Aerosols Program seeks to provide improved information about the radiative forcing of human-influenced particles on the climate system in order to aid the detection and attribution of climate change, in particular, the estimation of the offset that anthropogenic aerosols may be providing to the greenhouse-gas-induced warming, and the prediction of future climate changes for various radiative- forcing scenarios, all in collaboration with other organizations and agencies. FY99 activities will continue to focus on reducing the uncertainties in the direct radiative forcing by tropospheric aerosols through an integrated program of monitoring, process, and closure studies, and modeling.

The Atmospheric Chemistry Program seeks to improve the predictive understanding of ozone-depletion and greenhouse-warming issues via integrated global measurements, laboratory studies, and theoretical modeling, and to help lead in the assessment of the research information. FY99 activities will focus on scientific issues associated with the "rehabilitation" of the stratospheric ozone layer anticipated by the Montreal Protocol, and improving the quantification of the radiative forcing associated with greenhouse gases in view of the information needs of the Climate Convention.

In FY99, the Economics and Human Dimensions of Climate Fluctuations program will support research focused on how human systems currently cope with climate variability and on issues affecting the use of climate information for planning purposes. In addition to agriculture and fisheries, other sectors, such as energy, transportation, insurance, and health, are affected by climate variability (e.g., ENSO events) and could make use of climate forecasts.

Pilot application and assessment activities are designed specifically to translate the results of research into regionally relevant information that can be used by decisionmakers, government officials, and the general public. In FY99, NOAA will continue its efforts in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, continue and expand its International Research Institute-related pilot applications activities, and launch assessment activities in the U.S. Southwest.

Related Research. In addition to focused USGCRP research, NOAA contributing programs include advance short-term weather forecasting and warning services; prediction and observation systems in support of weather and seasonal to interannual climate forecasts; facilitating the dissemination of global change information; and strengthening facets of environmental technology. NIST also has ongoing programs in atmospheric chemistry.

Mapping of Budget Request to Appropriations Legislation. In the Departments of Commerce, Justice, and State, the Judiciary, and Related Agencies Appropriations Bill, NOAA and NIST USGCRP activities are funded under Title II-Department of Commerce and Related Agencies, within the NOAA Operations, Research, and Facilities and NIST Scientific and Technical Research and Services accounts. In Appropriations Committee reports, funding for NOAA's USGCRP activities is included as part of the Climate and Air Quality Research budget within Oceanic and Atmospheric Research.