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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 1, NUMBER 6, DECEMBER 1988

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
RETROSPECTIVE: 1987 PAPERS

Item #d88dec45

"Global Climate Change: Toward a Greenhouse Policy," J.T. Mathews (World Resour. Inst., 1735 New York Ave. NW, Washington DC 20006), Issues Sci. & Technol., 3(3), 57-68, Spr. 1987.

Gives a brief review of scientific evidence of likely greenhouse warming followed by an extensive discussion of policy options. Concludes that the costs of waiting for scientific certainty are too great; instead the U.S. should act now to avert unacceptably large warming. Suggestions include increasing energy efficiency, reducing the use of carbon-rich fuels, phasing out chlorofluorocarbons, beginning international discussions on the greenhouse effect and long-range energy studies.

Item #d88dec46

"An Environmental Agenda for World Business," J.G. Speth (address immed. above), Across the Board, 21(6), 21-26, Mar. 1987.

Discusses the emergence of a new spirit of cooperation that has begun to replace the once acrimonious relations between business and environmental groups. Multinational corporations have excellent economic and political reasons to work with environmental groups; they depend on resources threatened by major problems such as the greenhouse effect, forest depletion, misuse of energy resources. A consensus may be emerging on the most urgent global problems.

Item #d88dec47

"Mankind's Impact on Climate: The Evolution of an Awareness," W.W. Kellogg (NCAR, POB 3000, Boulder CO 80307), Climatic Change, 10(2), 113-136, Apr. 1987.

An extended commentary on the growth of an awareness of the crucial role of infrared-absorbing gases, on the research advances in understanding the various components of the climate system, especially through the use of numerical models, and on the questions posed by the prospect of global warming. There is already a sharp debate between the activists, who would take action worldwide to counter climate change, and those who would simply wait and see what happens and perhaps take what local measures are necessary.

Item #d88dec48

"U.S. Report to the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics," Rev. of Geophys., 25, Mar., Apr., July 1987.

A collection of papers constituting the quadrennial report to the IUGG, which reviews and updates research advances during 1983-1986 in physical and chemical oceanography, atmospheric science, aeronomy (including stratospheric chemistry), and solid earth geophysics. Papers of most direct relevance to global climate change follow; most include extensive reference lists.

"Aeronomy 1983-1987: An Overview," J.E. Frederick (Dept. Geophys. Sci., Univ. Chicago, Chicago, Ill.), 25(3), 417-418, Apr. 1987.

"Overview of the Atmospheric Sciences Report," W.H. Beaseley (Board Atmos. Sci., Nat. Acad. Sci., Washington DC 20418), ibid., 309-311.

"Minor Constituents in the Upper Stratosphere and Mesosphere," D.W. Rush (Lab. Atmos. Phys., Campus Box 392, Univ. Colo., Boulder CO 80309), R.T. Clancy, ibid., 479-486.

"Natural and Anthropogenic Perturbations to the Stratosphere," D.J. Wuebbles (Lawrence Livermore Nat. Lab., Univ. Calif., Livermore CA 94550), ibid., 487-493.

"Trace Gas Measurements in the Stratosphere Using Balloon-Borne Instruments," D.G. Murcray, ibid., 494-496.

"Marine Chemistry and Paleoceanography in the United States--1983-1986," D.R. Schink (Dept. Oceanog., Texas A&M Univ., College Sta. TX 77843), 25(6), 1359-1362, July 1987.

"Cycles, Steps and CO₂: Paleoceanography in the United States from 1983-1986," C. Sancetta (Lamont-Doherty Geolog. Observ., Columbia Univ., Palisades NY 10964), ibid., 1363-1375.

"Ocean Chemical Fluxes 1983-1986," P.G. Brewer (Woods Hole Inst., Woods Hole MA 02543), D.M. Glover, ibid., 1376-1386.

"[ocean] Tracers and Modeling," J.L. Sarmiento (GFDL, Princeton Univ., Princeton NJ 08544), ibid., 1417-1419.

Item #d88dec49

Special issue: Tellus, 39B(1-2), Feb.-Apr., 1987. Most of the 21 papers in this issue were presented at the International Conference on Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Its Sources, Sinks and Global Transport, Sep. 1985, Kandersteg, Switzerland. Those of most direct interest follow.

Item #d88dec50

"The Flux of Carbon from Terrestrial Ecosystems to the Atmosphere in 1980 Due to Changes in Land Use: Geographic Distribution of the Global Flux," R.A. Houghton (Woods Hole Res. Ctr., Woods Hole MA 02543), R.D. Boone et al., ibid., 122-139.

The net release of C to the atmosphere in 1980 from changes in land use is estimated to be 1.0-2.6 x 1015 g, mostly from deforestation in the tropics. The global net release is inconsistent with results of geochemical models of the C cycle; possible explanations include net accumulation of C in undisturbed ecosystems as a result of CO₂ fertilization or climate changes. Even if the C budget were to appear balanced, current knowledge is insufficient to predict whether terrestrial ecosystems will act as a positive or negative feedback on the anticipated global warming.

Item #d88dec51

"Biospheric CO₂ Emissions During the Past 200 Years Reconstructed by Deconvolution of Ice Core Data," U. Siegenthaler (Phys. Inst., Univ. Bern, CH-3012 Bern, Switz.), H. Oeschger, ibid., 140-154.

Measurements using air trapped in old polar ice have revealed that the pre-industrial atmosphere contained 280 ppm of CO₂ and that delta 13C of atmospheric CO₂ decreased by about 1.1% until 1980. These results indicate considerable amounts of non-fossil CO₂ must have already been emitted into the atmosphere in the 19th century. Estimates of emission rates using box models indicate net non-fossil production rate was roughly constant in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Smaller values obtained for the past 30 years may be due to other sinks, such as stimulation of plant activity by enhanced CO₂ concentration.

Item #d88dec52

"Modelling Stimulation of Plants and Ecosystem Response to Present Levels of Excess Atmospheric CO₂," G. H. Kohlmaier (Inst. Phys. Chem., Niederurseler Hang, Univ. Frankfurt, D-6000 Frankfurt am Main 50, FRG), H. Bröhl et al., ibid., 155-170.

Reviews available experimental data and field observations to understand implications of the observed increase in the amplitude of the CO₂ seasonal cycle. Results suggest an experimental stimulation factor for net primary production of between 0.25 and 0.50. Discusses global, 3-compartment models for living biota, litter and humus, and uses them to estimate the amount of C sequestered annually in the biota pool.

Item #d88dec53

"A Look at 1983 CO₂ Emissions from Fossil Fuels (with Preliminary Data for 1984)," R.M. Rotty (Mech. Eng., Univ. New Orleans, New Orleans LA 70148), ibid., 203-208.

Global emissions of CO₂ from fossil fuels continued to decline slightly in 1983 for the fourth consecutive year as a result of reduced use of liquid fuels. But preliminary data for 1984 strongly suggest that the decline is over; emissions were greater than previous years except 1979. Growth in fossil fuel use and resulting emissions have continued in the developing world in contrast to the decline observed in developed countries of the western world; this could have important implications for future global emissions.

Item #d88dec54

"The 1982-1983 El Niño: A 6 Billion Ton CO₂ Release," A. Guadry (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Av. de la Terrasse, BP 1, 91190 Gif/Yvette, France), P. Monfray et al., ibid., 209-213.

The atmospheric CO₂ concentration at Amsterdam Island showed important variations of the increase rate during this event. The curve shifted upward by 1 ppm, corresponding to a supplementary input of about 6 billion tons of CO₂.