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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 1, NUMBER 1, JULY 1988

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
GLOBAL MODELING

Item #d88jul39

"Response of a General Circulation Model to a Prescribed Antarctic Ozone Hole," J.T. Kiehl (NCAR, POB 3000, Boulder CO 80307), B.A. Boville, B.P. Briegleb, Nature, 332(6164), 501-504, Apr. 7, 1988.

The NCAR Community Climate Model was run through the Austral springtime, with and without an Antarctic ozone hole, to evaluate changes in the stratospheric radiation balance and the relative roles of chemical and dynamical mechanisms in the formation of the hole. The presence of the hole suppresses development of upward motion otherwise found in September, indicating a dynamical explanation of the hole is unlikely.

Item #d88jul40

"The Role of Ocean Heat Transport in Climatic Change," C. Covey, E. Barron, Earth-Sci. Rev., 24, 429-445, Feb. 1988.

Reviews modern heat transport determinations, the proposed role of ocean heat transport in paleoclimates, and the results of modeling studies. These are among the conclusions: present-day ocean heat transport is significant but not well known; model experiments show a large degree of compensation between oceanic and atmospheric transport. The possible role of such compensation in future climate changes warrants attention in further research.

Item #d88jul41

"Thermal Expansion of Sea Water Associated with Global Warming," T.M.L. Wigley (Clim. Res. Unit., Univ. E. Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK), S.C.B. Raper, Nature, 330, 127-131, Nov. 12, 1987.

Authors used an upwelling-diffusion and a pure diffusion model to investigate the sensitivities of sea level to short-timescale forcing and deep-water formation rates. Estimates a greenhouse-gas-induced contribution between 1880 and 1985 of 2-5 cm, and a projected rise by 2025 of 4-8 cm with a greenhouse-gas warming of 0.6-1.0° C. Estimates of future changes depend crucially on predicting future melting of ice masses.

Item #d88jul42

"The Potential Impact on Atmospheric Ozone and Temperature of Increasing Trace Gas Concentrations," G. Brasseur (Inst. Space Aeronomy, 3 Ave. Circulaire, 1180 Brussels, Belg.), A. De Rudder, J. Geophys. Res., 92(D9), 10,903-10,920, Sep. 20, 1987.

Uses a coupled chemical-radiative-transport one-dimensional model to study the outcome of several scenarios, assuming differing future changes in the concentrations of radiatively active trace gases. In one scenario that assumes a cap on F-11 and F-12 of 1.5 times world production, the maximum O3 depletion (4-5%) would occur in the year 2070. Increases in greenhouse gases tend to offset O3 depletion.