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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 1, NUMBER 1, JULY 1988

REPORTS...
IMPACTS

Item #d88jul63

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Electric Utilities (Report 88-2), ICF Inc. (for NYS Energy R&D Author., Two Rockefeller Plaza, Albany NY 12223; F.V. Strnisa, Proj. Mgr.), 119 pp., Dec. 1987.

Cosponsored by the Edison Electric Institute, the Electric Power Research Institute and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, this study compared estimated impacts over the next 30 years on a southeastern United States utility, with those for the Northeast (upper and lower New York State). "High" and "low" temperature change scenarios are considered, the former representing the highest estimates by current general circulation models. For the high scenario, the change in peak demand is greater for the Southeast, but generating capacity increases required are similar, ranging from 10-21% of base case for the period, or the equivalent of one or two large central power stations in each region. Added annual electricity production costs range from $48-241 million in New York, depending in part on the assumptions concerning climate change impacts on hydroelectric production. The report discusses the extensive uncertainties inherent in the analysis. Although large impacts are not imminent, their importance is likely to increase, and utility planning should take account of climate change impacts immediately. Extensive suggestions are given for further research on predicting likely climate change and modeling impacts on utilities.

Item #d88jul64

Determination of Broad-scale Land Use Changes by Climate and Soils (WP-88-7), F. Brouwer (Inst. Appl. Syst. Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria), 21 pp., 1988, $5.

Addresses some major environmental determinants for broad-scale land use changes under a possible climate change scenario for Europe. Focuses on changes in land degradation mechanisms such as compaction, erosion, toxification, reduction of nutrients and organic matter, and salinization, all of which severely influence land use.

Item #d88jul65

Untersuchungen uber die voraussichtlichen Langzeiteffekte einer CO₂-bedingten Klimaveraenderung auf die einheimische Vegetation. Abschlussbericht (Investigation of the Prospective Long-Term Effects of CO₂-Induced Climatic Alterations on the Native Vegetation. Final Report), D. Overdieck (Fachbereich Biol./Chem., Osnabrueck Univ., FRG), 250 pp., 1987. In German. Available through NTIS, order no. TIB/B88-80653/XAB, $42.00.

Long-term experiments were conducted on herbaceous species at natural conditions on simplified stands of Middle-European grassland vegetation, using atmospheric CO₂ concentrations of 270 to ppm. With elevated CO₂, growth is enhanced and usually more material is shifted to storage organs. The effects are enhanced by increased light intensity and by temperature, but only up to 35° C. CO₂ enrichment alters the competition among mixed species. Two mathematical models were developed for effects of CO₂ enrichment on grassland ecosystems.