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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 1, NUMBER 5, NOVEMBER 1988

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
GLOBAL MODELING

Item #d88nov37

"Recurrence Analysis of Climate Sensitivity Experiments," H. Von Storch, F.W. Zwiers (Can. Clim. Ctr., 4905 Dufferin St., Downsview, Ontario M3H 5T4, Can.), J. Clim., 1(2), 157-171, Feb. 1988.

Proposes a new concept called recurrence in statistical analysis of climate sensitivity experiments, that can identify the parts of the response which are likely to recur with an a priori likelihood each time a new experimental realization is obtained. Suggests a variety of statistical tests to assess recurrence by means of limited samples. A recurrence analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) with several El Niño SST anomalies indicate that equatorial Pacific SST anomalies are of rather limited predictive value even if the anomalies are very strong.

Item #d88nov38

"Infrared Radiation Models for Atmospheric Ozone," D.P. Kratz (NASA Goddard Space Flight Ctr., Greenbelt MD 20771), R.D. Cess, J. Geophys. Res., 93(D6), 7047-7054, June 20, 1988.

Discusses a hierarchy of line-by-line, narrow-band and broadband infrared radiation models for ozone. Measurement of atmospheric ozone fluxes by the narrow-band (Malkmus) model is in near-precise agreement with the line-by-line model. This provides a test for the narrow-band Curtis-Godson scaling which leads to errors in fluxes of up to 10%, due to the altitude dependence of the ozone mixing ratio. Slightly greater error arises with the broadband model.

Item #d88nov39

"Effect of Computed Horizontal Diffusion Coefficients on Two-Dimensional N₂O Model Distributions," C.H. Jackman (Atmos. Chem., NASA Goddard Space Flight Ctr., Greenbelt MD 20771), P.A. Newman et al., ibid., 93(5), 5213-5219, May 20, 1988.

Two sets of horizontal diffusion coefficients Kyy and Kyz were computed: from National Meteorological Center temperature data using quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity, and self-consistent Kyy values from computed residual circulation. The use of either set of these diffusion coefficients produced substantial changes in the N₂O distribution, especially in the middle to upper stratosphere and at high latitudes in the winter. The changes lead to enhanced transport of N₂O to higher latitudes, with the set of self-consistent Kyy values transporting the greatest amount of N₂O. The enhanced transport increases the lifetime of N₂O because the photochemical lifetime is longer at high altitudes.

Item #d88nov40

"Sensitivity of Soil Moisture to Doubling of Carbon Dioxide in Climate Model Experiments. Part I. North America," W.W. Kellogg (NCAR, POB 3000, Boulder CO 80307), Z-C. Zhao, J. Clim., 348-366, Apr. 1988.

Results from five current models show considerable difference between the soil moisture formulations and the resulting outputs of these five models. General conclusions drawn are 1) agreement between models is considerably better in the wintertime than in the summertime; 2) in winter there may be an increase in soil moisture in North America at high latitudes and an onset of drier conditions in the southern states and Mexico; 3) in summer there may be a tendency toward drier conditions in the midwest with wetter conditions along the Gulf Coast and West Coast of the U.S. and Canada. Most of these results are consistent with past warmer periods.

Item #d88nov41

"Modelling Tropical Deforestation: A Study of GCM Land-Surface Parameterizations," R.E. Dickinson (NCAR, Boulder CO 80307), A. Henderson-Sellers, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 114B(480), 439-462, Jan. 1988.

In a 13-month integration that assumes that all of the Amazon tropical forest in South America is replaced by impoverished grassland, surface hydrological and temperature effects dominate the response. Reduced mixing and less interception and evaporation from the canopy cause runoff to increase and surface temperature to rise by 3-5 ° K. The land-surface model, driven in a stand-alone mode by prescribed atmospheric conditions and with an imposed seasonal cycle of rainfall, mimics the seasonal cycle of soil moisture and runoff found in the Community Climate Model (CCM).