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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 1, NUMBER 5, NOVEMBER 1988

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
IMPACTS

Item #d88nov30

"Climatic Change and Great Lakes Levels--The Impact On Shipping," D. Marchand (Great Lakes Inst., Univ. Windsor, Windsor, Ontario N9B 3P4, Can.), Climatic Change, 12(2), 107-133, Apr. 1988.

Five scenarios were evaluated for a doubled CO₂ climate, using the combined output of several climatic, hydrologic and economic models. The hydrologic model indicated that future mean lake levels could be reduced by one-half meter and extreme low levels could occur 77% of the time. This would lead to a 30% increase in mean annual shipping costs, and the frequency of years with costs exceeding those of the low lake level period (1963-1965) could rise to 97%. Possible future policy options would be to keep levels artificially high by diversions into the system or increased dredging.

Item #d88nov31

"Climatic Warming and Increased Summer Aridity in Florida, U.S.A.," J.M. Coleman (Environ. Mgmt. Inc., 5003 Riveredge Drive, Titusville FL 32780), ibid., 165-178.

Climatic warming could result in decreased summertime convective activity and reduced thunderstorm precipitation. This could arise from strengthening of the North Atlantic subtropical anticyclone, through increased differential ocean-continent heating. Depending upon the rapidity of the warming, precipitation shortfalls of 10-20% could become common. Tropical precipitation from cyclones would not help in the near term.

Item #d88nov32

"Human Solar Ultraviolet Radiant Exposure in High Mountains," M. Blumthaler (Inst. Medical Phys., Univ. Innsbruck, Muellerstr. 44, A-6200 Innsbruck, Austria), W. Ambach, Atmos. Environ., 22(4), 749-753, Apr. 1988.

Mountain measurements of the solar u.v. B erythema dose, the u.v. A radiation flux and global radiation have been made since 1980. A cloudiness of 10/10 reduces the daily totals for the individual radiation fluxes to 55-65% of the values at 0/10. The minimum value of the diffuse/global radiation ratio is 35% in the summer but increases up to 80% in winter. Along with cloudiness and atmospheric scattering, O3 content and albedo of the ground are important for judging human exposure to erythema dose in the high mountains.

Item #d88nov33

"Carbon Dioxide Enrichment Increases Yield of Valencia Orange," W.J.S. Downton (Div. Horticultural Res., CSIRO, GPO Box 350, Adelaide, S.A. 5001, Australia), W.J.R. Grant, B.R. Loveys, Aust. J. Plant Physiol., 14(5), 493-501, May 1987.

Trees enriched to 800 microbar CO₂ retained 70% more fruit and the fruit did not differ from the controls in soluble solids content, dry weight, seed number or rind thickness. For the CO₂ enriched trees, the progression of fruit coloration was more rapid, the specific leaf dry weight was up 25% and the greater fruit yield resulted in a 58% increase in dry weight. Results indicate that crop yield by fruit trees that experience source limitation during fruit development will increase as global levels of CO₂ continue to rise.

Item #d88nov34

"Simulated Climate and CO₂--Induced Climate Change Over Western Europe," C.A. Wilson (U.K. Meteorol. Off., Bracknell, Berks RG 12 2SZ, UK), J.F.B. Mitchell, Climatic Change, 10(1), 11-42, Feb. 1987.

Assesses the simulation of present-day climate by a general circulation model. Compares different seasons, the mean annual cycle and the frequency of extreme events with climatological data. Broad features of the simulation are satisfactory but there are too many cold episodes in the spring and excessive wet days over Northern Europe. When atmospheric CO₂ concentrations were quadrupled, sea surface temperature and sea ice extents changed appropriately; there were fewer cold episodes and less precipitation. Discusses the relevance of both the model data and statistical tests to climate impact studies.

Item #d88nov35

"Climatic Variation and Surface Water Resources in the Great Basin Region," I. Flaschka (1235 Whipple Ave., Redwood CA 94062), C.W. Stockton, W.R. Boggs, Water Resour. Bull., 23(1), 47-57, 1987.

Investigates the possible effects of global warming to surface runoff by applying water balance models to four watersheds in Nevada and Utah. The most probable change, a 2 ° C increase in average annual temperature coupled with a 10% decrease in precipitation, would reduce runoff by 17-28% of the present mean, with drier basins showing the greatest change. Based on projected water requirements for the year 2000, a change to a warmer and drier climate would cause severe water shortages in many parts of the Great Basin.

Item #d88nov36

"Analysis of the Longest Ice Observation Series Made on Finnish Lakes," E. Kuuisisto (Nat. Board Waters & Environ., Helsinki, Finland) Aqua Fenn., 17(2), 123-145, 1987.

Analyzes records of the dates of freezing and breakup on three lakes from the 1830s onwards. The 21-year moving average of the duration of ice cover roughly follows the changes in the corresponding moving average of the mean annual air temperature in Helsinki. Discusses effects of a 6 ° C increase in winter temperature on the ice conditions. At increased temperatures the large lakes would remain open once in 3-20 years.