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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 1, NUMBER 4, OCTOBER 1988

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
TREND ANALYSIS

Item #d88oct48

"Measurements of Atmospheric BrOx Radicals in the Tropical and Mid-Latitude Atmosphere," O.N. Singh (Dept. Appl. Phys., Benares Hindu Univ., Varanasi, India), R. Borchers et al., Nature, 334(6183), 593-595, Aug. 18, 1988.

Catalytic decomposition of ozone by bromine radicals (BrOx) is more efficient than by chlorine radicals (ClOx) and could be enhanced by synergistic effects of BrOx and ClOx. First vertical profiles of CBrClF2 and CBrF3, two important source gases of atmospheric BrOx, were measured respectively during 1982-84 and 1980 at 44° N. Comparison with 1987 data shows that the atmospheric abundances of CBrClF2 and CBrF3, at present about 2 pptv and 1.3 pptv, are growing by 12% per year and 5% per year respectively.

Item #d88oct49

"Toward an Improved Global Network for Determination of Tropospheric Ozone Climatology and Trends," R.G. Prinn (Dept. Earth, Atmos., Planetary Sci., Mass. Inst. Tech., Cambridge MA 02139), J. Atmos. Chem., 6, 281-298, 1988.

An examination of typical tropospheric ozone variability on daily, monthly, annual and interannual timescales and of instrumental precision indicates that the current ozonesonde network is insufficient to detect a trend in tropospheric ozone of £ 1% per year at the 2 sigma level, even at stations with records a decade in length. A trend prediction analysis indicates it is possible to achieve this by decreasing the time between observations from 3-7 days to one day or less, doubling the present number of stations, and using differential absorption lidar ozone instruments which can make far more frequent measurements of ozone vertical profiles.

Item #d88oct50

Comment and reply on "Further Interpretation of Satellite Measurements of Antarctic Total Ozone," Geophys. Res. Letters., 15(2), 196-199, Feb. 1988.

Item #d88oct51

"Observational Assessments of the Hemispheric and Global Climate Response to Increasing Greenhouse Gases," C.-D. Schönwiese (Inst. Meteor. Geophys., Univ. Frankfurt/M., FRG), Beitr. Phys. Atmos., 60(1), 48-64, Feb. 1987.

To be able to detect any anthropogenic greenhouse effect as early as possible in the observational data, the air temperature record (near surface, land areas) for both hemispheres and the global average, sea surface temperatures, and globally averaged sea level variations were analysed over the recent 100-130 years. A multivariate regression model was used which accounts for CO₂, volcanic and solar forcing and tropical Pacific temperatures reflecting the El Niño events. Concludes there are some signs of trace gas induced climate change that are consistent with available GCM predictions, but this interpretation is complicated by several factors such as possible nonlinearity and time lags.

Item #d88oct52

"Relative Contributions of Different Trace Gases to the Greenhouse Effect," T.M.L. Wigley (Clim. Res. Unit, Univ. East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK), Clim. Monitor, 16(1), 14-28, Dec. 1986-Feb. 1987.

Updates information on concentrations and radiative effects to quantify the relative contributions of the various greenhouse gases both in the past and, based on recent projections, in the future, to the year 2030.

Item #d88oct53

"Surface Ozone Concentrations and Climate: Preliminary Analysis," T.D. Davies, P.M. Kelley et al., Clim. Monitor, 16(2), 52-61, 1987.

Records of surface ozone concentrations in parts of Europe have increased in recent decades. There is a close association from year to year between ozone values and a measure of the circulation character over the U.K. based on the Lamb weather type classification. Future changes in the circulation, including those which may result from greenhouse gas concentration changes, could have a noticeable effect on local to regional-scale ozone levels.