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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 1, NUMBER 3, SEPTEMBER 1988

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
GLOBAL MODELING

Item #d88sep45

"Transient Climatic Response to Increasing CO₂ Concentration: Some Dynamical Scenarios," C. Nicolis (Inst. d'Aéronomie Spatiale Belgique, Ave. Circulaire, 1180 Bruxelles, Belgium), Tellus, 40A(1), 50-60, Jan. 1988.

Identifies the prerequisites that must be satisfied by a system in order to produce a response to an increasing control parameter similar to the observed surface temperature trend: a period of systematic increase (on which is superimposed small scale variability) followed by a slowing down or even by a plateau. Suggests that the variance of climatic observables is much more sensitive to the increase of a control parameter than are their means.

Item #d88sep46

"Modelling Sea Surface Temperature Rise Resulting from Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations," D. Henderson-Sellers (Dept. Math., Univ. Salford, Salford, UK), Clim. Change, 11, 349-59, Dec. 1987.

Results from two recent independent studies using a simple box-diffusion model suggest that over the last 130 years a sea surface temperature increment of about 0.3° K occurred, which agrees with observations. If a convective capability was added to the model, the sea surface temperature increase on a timescale of a century would only be about one-third of this.

Item #d88sep47

"Evaluation of Satellite Derived Land Cover Characteristics for Global Climate Modelling," G. Thomas (Inst. Hydrology, Wallingford, U.K.), A. Henderson-Sellers, ibid., 313-347.

A preliminary evaluation of the suitability of NOAA global vegetation index (GVI) satellite data archive for climate modeling has been done through comparison to existing data bases of soil and vegetation cover. Selection of GVI class boundaries is hard and is probably a strong function of the classification technique employed. It was found that GVI values for very similar ecotypes vary widely from region to region, making global classification risky and not useful for global climate modelers in its present form.

Item #d88sep48

Comment on "The Effect of Changing Climate on Australian Biomass Production--A Preliminary Study,", ibid., 391-93.

Item #d88sep49

"A Doubled CO₂ Climate Sensitivity Experiment With a Global Climate Model Including a Simple Ocean," C.A. Wilson (Meteor. Off., Bracknell, Berkshire, England), J.F.B. Mitchell, J. Geophys. Res., 92(D11), 13,315-13,343, Nov. 20, 1987.

The sensitivity of a global climate model is presented, assessed and compared with earlier studies. Many of the discrepancies in the responses of different models can be traced to differences in the simulations of present-day climate. The choice of convective parameterization appears to influence the sensitivity of the simulated response in the tropics.

Item #d88sep50

"Seasonal Variability of Carbon Dioxide, Nutrients and Oxygen in the Northern North Atlantic Surface Water: Observations and a Model," Tsung-Hung Peng (Environ. Sci. Div., Oak Ridge Nat. Lab., Oak Ridge, TN 37831), Taro Takahashi et al., Tellus, 39B, 439-58, Nov. 1987.

The seasonal variation of various surface water properties has been monitored for two years at a station located 120 miles south of the Iceland-Greenland sill. To account for the observed seasonal variation, a vertically one-dimensional, two-box ocean model was constructed. When calibrated using the observed phosphate concentration in surface water, this model yields seasonal variations of carbon and oxygen values consistent with observations, except for spring time values resulting from phytoplankton blooms. Corrections can be made to simulate the spring bloom effect.

Item #d88sep51

"Ice-Albedo Feedback in a CO₂-Doubling Simulation," R.E. Dickinson (Nat. Ctr. Atmos. Res., Boulder CO 80307), G.A. Meehl, W.M. Washington., Clim. Change, 10, 241-248, July 1987.

A global warming of 3.5° C, found by the author's previous simulation of a CO₂-doubling, would have been only 2.2° C according to author's estimate of ice-snow feedback. Further study is needed to verify estimates.

Item #d88sep52

"Asymptotic Analysis of Airborne Fraction Used to Validate Global Carbon Models," R.J. Mulholland (Elec. Eng., Comp. Sci., Univ. Oklahoma, Norman OK 73019), W.R. Emanuel, Ecol. Modelling, 36(1/2), 139-152, Apr. 1987.

Airborne fraction is defined as the ratio of change in atmospheric CO₂ concentration to input of CO₂ over a specified time period. The validation scheme proposed compares a model-computed (asymptotic) airborne fraction with an observed value. This is tested using an independently calibrated ocean/atmosphere sub-model, and is followed by a test of a global carbon cycle model made up of a previously tested ocean/atmosphere sub-model linked with a model for the terrestrial biota. These tests produce a range of valid model parameters similar to those from independent observations.