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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 2, NUMBER 8, AUGUST 1989

REPORTS...
CANADIAN CLIMATE SERIES

Item #d89aug13

The following three reports are the latest in a series commissioned since 1984 by the Canadian Climate Program, through government, industry and universities, on the potential social and economic impacts of greenhouse warming on Canada. Write to the addresses given with each report about purchasing complete copies; prices vary but are typically $25-$75. For information on how to purchase previously issued reports (listed by title only below), contact the Canadian Climate Centre (Atmos. Environ. Serv., 4905 Dufferin St., Downsview, Ont. M3H 5T4).

Item #d89aug14

Implications of Climatic Warming for Canada's Comparative Position in Agricultural Production and Trade (LEG-27), B. Smit (Land Eval. Group, Univ. Guelph), 1988. Request from Univ. Sch. Rural Planning & Devel., Univ. Guelph, Guelph, Ont. N1G 2W1, Can.

This preliminary analysis employs previous studies that use several different approaches for estimating the impact of climatic warming on agriculture, together with information on current crop production and trade. Production of wheat and grain corn may be enhanced in Canada and the USSR, and diminish elsewhere; conditions for barley and oats in Canada, Europe and the USSR may be less favorable; opportunities for producing soybeans may decrease in the major producing regions, especially the United States and Central America; rice production may increase in Asia. The consequent alteration of the world agricultural trade could have major implications for Canada's competitive position. New opportunities may open to export wheat to Europe, Africa and Asia, and grain corn to North and South America, while current imports of grain corn from the midwestern United States could be reduced. Changes in competitive position for other crops remains uncertain. Impacts are likely to vary among regions in Canada, with ramifications for regional development policies. The study results indicate the need for basic research on the sensitivities of economies and societies to environmental change.

Item #d89aug15

CO₂ Induced Climate Change in Ontario: Interdependencies and Resource Strategies, The DPA Group Inc. in association with Concord Scientific Corp., 1988. Contact The DPA Group, 85 Richmond St. W, S. 700, Toronto, Ont. M5H 1H9, Can.

Presents a summary and follow-up analysis of a November 1985 workshop on the topic which considered climate system components (streamflow, lake hydrology, water quality, wetlands, snowfall, air quality, solar energy) and resource uses (municipal water use, hydroelectric power, tourism and recreation, forest resources, health, residential heating and cooling). Almost all are affected by greenhouse warming, although the nature and magnitude of impacts vary considerably across resource sectors, and they are intricately interdependent. Some indirect impacts reinforce warming effects, while others can mitigate change. Possible impacts include: lowered lake levels and reduced water supply and quality; increased crop yields in northern Ontario, but lowered yields in Southern Ontario; major disruptions in the forest sector and commercial wood supplies; and reduced hydroelectric power generation and commercial Great Lakes navigation. A variety of preventive and adjustment strategies based on current socio-economic and technological conditions are discussed, some of which require significant advance planning (such as forest genetics). The most likely and desirable strategies depend on the timing and pattern of CO₂-induced changes. A method for evaluating strategies and research priorities is developed based on resource costs, changes in unemployment and income, geographic distribution of impacts, issues of national sovereignty and net economic benefit of CO₂ control. Research priorities are identified in four broad areas: atmospheric circulation models, effects on the climate system, effects on resource uses, and resource and socio-economic adjustment strategies (especially in the forest sector).

Item #d89aug16

The Implications of Climate Change for Natural Resources in Quebec (Prospectives d'un changement climatique dû à un doublement de CO₂ atmosphérique pour les ressources naturelles du Québec), B. Singh, 1988. Contact Bhawan Singh, Dept. Geog., Univ. Montreal, Montreal, Que. H3C 3P8, Can. (514-270-3443).

The study examined three main socio-economic sectors: 1) energy (hydroelectric power generation in the James Bay area, space heating requirements in the south); 2) forestry (potential for displacement of tree communities, changes in growth rates); 3) agriculture (changes in overall resource potential and in productivity of crops important in southern Quebec--grain and fodder corn, soybeans, potatoes, spring wheat, beans, sorghum, barley, oats, rape-seed and sunflowers, orchard crops). The net basin supply of the James Bay area is expected to increase 7% to 20%, leading to an increase in hydroelectric generating capacity of 9.3 x 1012 W/h. Heating degree days would decrease 25% for Montreal and 35% for Quebec City. The agricultural sector would experience a substantial increase in the length of the growing season (estimates range from 22 to 72 days), potential for agricultural expansion in some regions (such as Abitibi-Témiscamingue and Lac Saint-Jean), and increased potential for grape and apple cultivation in all areas. The forestry sector would be affected by a northward displacement of major forest systems by several hundred kilometers, a drastic decrease in tundra forest area ranging from 62% to 100%, and about a 200% increase in the acreage of hardwood forests.

Item #d89aug17

Titles of other reports in the series are:

Socio-Economic Assessment of the Physical and Ecological Impacts of Climate Change on the Marine Environment of the Atlantic Region of Canada--Phase I.

Estimating Effects of Climatic Change on Agriculture in Saskatchewan, Canada.

Implications of Climatic Change for Tourism and Recreation in Ontario.

Economic Perspectives on the Impact of Climate Variability and Change: A Summary Report.

Implications of Climate Change for Downhill Skiing in Quebec

Preliminary Study of the Possible Impacts of a One Metre Rise in Sea Level at Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island.

The Implications of Climate Change for Agriculture in the Prairie Provinces.

Effects of a One Metre Rise in Mean Sea-Level at Saint John, New Brunswick and the Lower Reaches of the Saint John River.

Implications of Climatic Change for Navigation and Power Generation in the Great Lakes.

Implications of Climatic Change for Agriculture in Ontario.

Canadian Climate Impacts Program (identifies the major socio-economic impact studies undertaken during 1984-1987).