February 28, 2007
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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999
FROM VOLUME 2, NUMBER 8, AUGUST 1989
CANADIAN CLIMATE SERIES
The following three reports are the latest in a series commissioned since
1984 by the Canadian Climate Program, through government, industry and
universities, on the potential social and economic impacts of greenhouse warming
on Canada. Write to the addresses given with each report about purchasing
complete copies; prices vary but are typically $25-$75. For information on how
to purchase previously issued reports (listed by title only below), contact the
Canadian Climate Centre (Atmos. Environ. Serv., 4905 Dufferin St., Downsview,
Ont. M3H 5T4).
Implications of Climatic Warming for Canada's Comparative Position in
Agricultural Production and Trade (LEG-27), B. Smit (Land Eval. Group, Univ.
Guelph), 1988. Request from Univ. Sch. Rural Planning & Devel., Univ.
Guelph, Guelph, Ont. N1G 2W1, Can.
This preliminary analysis employs previous studies that use several
different approaches for estimating the impact of climatic warming on
agriculture, together with information on current crop production and trade.
Production of wheat and grain corn may be enhanced in Canada and the USSR, and
diminish elsewhere; conditions for barley and oats in Canada, Europe and the
USSR may be less favorable; opportunities for producing soybeans may decrease in
the major producing regions, especially the United States and Central America;
rice production may increase in Asia. The consequent alteration of the world
agricultural trade could have major implications for Canada's competitive
position. New opportunities may open to export wheat to Europe, Africa and Asia,
and grain corn to North and South America, while current imports of grain corn
from the midwestern United States could be reduced. Changes in competitive
position for other crops remains uncertain. Impacts are likely to vary among
regions in Canada, with ramifications for regional development policies. The
study results indicate the need for basic research on the sensitivities of
economies and societies to environmental change.
CO2 Induced Climate Change in Ontario: Interdependencies and Resource
Strategies, The DPA Group Inc. in association with Concord Scientific Corp.,
1988. Contact The DPA Group, 85 Richmond St. W, S. 700, Toronto, Ont. M5H 1H9,
Presents a summary and follow-up analysis of a November 1985 workshop on the
topic which considered climate system components (streamflow, lake hydrology,
water quality, wetlands, snowfall, air quality, solar energy) and resource uses
(municipal water use, hydroelectric power, tourism and recreation, forest
resources, health, residential heating and cooling). Almost all are affected by
greenhouse warming, although the nature and magnitude of impacts vary
considerably across resource sectors, and they are intricately interdependent.
Some indirect impacts reinforce warming effects, while others can mitigate
change. Possible impacts include: lowered lake levels and reduced water supply
and quality; increased crop yields in northern Ontario, but lowered yields in
Southern Ontario; major disruptions in the forest sector and commercial wood
supplies; and reduced hydroelectric power generation and commercial Great Lakes
navigation. A variety of preventive and adjustment strategies based on current
socio-economic and technological conditions are discussed, some of which require
significant advance planning (such as forest genetics). The most likely and
desirable strategies depend on the timing and pattern of CO2-induced changes. A
method for evaluating strategies and research priorities is developed based on
resource costs, changes in unemployment and income, geographic distribution of
impacts, issues of national sovereignty and net economic benefit of CO2 control.
Research priorities are identified in four broad areas: atmospheric circulation
models, effects on the climate system, effects on resource uses, and resource
and socio-economic adjustment strategies (especially in the forest sector).
The Implications of Climate Change for Natural Resources in
Quebec (Prospectives d'un changement climatique dû à
un doublement de CO2 atmosphérique pour les ressources naturelles
du Québec), B. Singh, 1988. Contact Bhawan Singh, Dept. Geog., Univ.
Montreal, Montreal, Que. H3C 3P8, Can. (514-270-3443).
The study examined three main socio-economic sectors: 1) energy
(hydroelectric power generation in the James Bay area, space heating
requirements in the south); 2) forestry (potential for displacement of tree
communities, changes in growth rates); 3) agriculture (changes in overall
resource potential and in productivity of crops important in southern
Quebec--grain and fodder corn, soybeans, potatoes, spring wheat, beans, sorghum,
barley, oats, rape-seed and sunflowers, orchard crops). The net basin supply of
the James Bay area is expected to increase 7% to 20%, leading to an increase in
hydroelectric generating capacity of 9.3 x 1012 W/h. Heating degree days would
decrease 25% for Montreal and 35% for Quebec City. The agricultural sector would
experience a substantial increase in the length of the growing season (estimates
range from 22 to 72 days), potential for agricultural expansion in some regions
(such as Abitibi-Témiscamingue and Lac Saint-Jean), and increased
potential for grape and apple cultivation in all areas. The forestry sector
would be affected by a northward displacement of major forest systems by several
hundred kilometers, a drastic decrease in tundra forest area ranging from 62% to
100%, and about a 200% increase in the acreage of hardwood forests.
Titles of other reports in the series are:
Socio-Economic Assessment of the Physical and Ecological Impacts
of Climate Change on the Marine Environment of the Atlantic Region of
Estimating Effects of Climatic Change on Agriculture in Saskatchewan,
Implications of Climatic Change for Tourism and Recreation in Ontario.
Economic Perspectives on the Impact of Climate Variability and Change: A
Implications of Climate Change for Downhill Skiing in Quebec
Preliminary Study of the Possible Impacts of a One Metre Rise in Sea
Level at Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island.
The Implications of Climate Change for Agriculture in the Prairie
Effects of a One Metre Rise in Mean Sea-Level at Saint John, New
Brunswick and the Lower Reaches of the Saint John River.
Implications of Climatic Change for Navigation and Power Generation in
the Great Lakes.
Implications of Climatic Change for Agriculture in Ontario.
Canadian Climate Impacts Program (identifies the major
socio-economic impact studies undertaken during 1984-1987).
Guide to Publishers
Index of Abbreviations