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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 2, NUMBER 1, JANUARY 1989

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
TREND ANALYSIS

Item #d89jan29

"Ozone Reduction in the 1980's: A Model Simulation of Anthropogenic and Solar Perturbations," G. Brasseur (NCAR, POB 3000 Boulder CO 80307), M.H. Hitchman et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., 15(12), 1361-1364, Nov. 1988.

Shows that a depletion in total ozone of the order of 2% and a reduction in ozone density near 40 km of 7-12% from 1979 to 1986 are consistent with the observed increase in trace gas densities and the simultaneous decrease in solar activity. The ozone response to trace gas emissions increases substantially with latitude, while the solar signal in ozone is present lower in the atmosphere and is nearly independent of latitude.

Item #d89jan30

"Dynamic Variability of Column Ozone," K.K. Tung (Dept. Appl. Math., Univ. Wash., Seattle WA 98195), H. Yang, ibid., 93(D9), 11,123-11,128, Sep. 20, 1988.

Presents an analytic estimate of the dynamical change in column ozone density as a function of temperature change in the lower stratosphere. If it can be assumed that the temperature change is induced by changes in wave transports, for each 1% (about 2 ° C) cooling averaged over the lower stratosphere, the column ozone density can decrease 7%. Also attempts to derive the amount of observed temperature change that would be produced by the radiative effects of observed ozone change.

Item #d89jan31

"Intercomparison of Total Ozone Measured by the Brewer and Dobson Spectrophotometers at Toronto," J.B. Kerr (Atmos. Environ. Svc., 4905 Dufferin St., Downsview, Ontario M3H 5T4, Can.), I.A. Asbridge, W.F.J. Evans, ibid., 11,129-11,140.

Presents the results and discusses the causes for minor differences. Develops a suitable transfer function to calculate simulated Dobson ozone data from Brewer data. With appropriate corrections applied, the Dobson ozone values are 3.8% greater than those of Brewer and the standard deviation between the daily mean values is 0.5%. The relative drift between the two instruments over the 5-year period was 0.05% per year.

Item #d89jan32

"Comparison of Ground-Based and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer Measurements Used in Assessing the Performance of the Global Ozone Observing System," R.D. Bojkov (address immed. above), C.L. Mateer, A.L. Hansson, ibid., 93(D8), 9525-9533, Aug. 20, 1988.

Identifies a drift of about 0.4% per year between the two systems. After the individual monthly biases are removed and using the satellite as a transfer standard, the difference between 92 currently operating stations of the Global Ozone Observing System (GO3OS) are analyzed. Close to 20% of the Dobson stations and nearly 30% of the filter stations show differences greater than 3%. Several examples of individual station discrepancies are discussed to encourage the complete reevaluation of the ground-based ozone record.

Item #d89jan33

"A Comparison of Ozone Trends From SME and SBUV Satellite Observations and Model Calculations," D.W. Rusch (Lab. Atmos. Space Phys., Boulder CO 80309), R.T. Clancy, ibid., 15(8), 776-779, Aug. 1988.

The SBUV and UVS data exhibit remarkably similar seasonal and latitudinal variations in ozone trends from 1982 to 1986. The detailed variations of ozone trends from both data sets are reproduced by photochemical model calculations which include latitude-dependent NMC temperature trends.

Item #d89jan34

Comment on "Southern Hemisphere Temperature Trends: A Possible Greenhouse Effect?" K.P. Shine (Dept. Atmos. Phys., Univ. Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PU, UK), ibid., 843-844. Suggests, if there is indeed a trend in the southern hemisphere temperatures consistent with increased concentrations of greenhouse gases, there also exists a possible coupling between increased greenhouse gases and the springtime Antarctic ozone depletion.

Item #d89jan35

"Multi-year Fluctuations of Temperature and Precipitation: The Gray Area of Climate Change," T.R. Karl (NOAA-NESDIS, Fed. Bldg., Asheville NC 28801), Climatic Change, 12(2), 179-197, Apr. 1988.

The twentieth century climate record of the United States reveals a substantial number of decadal fluctuations which occur in all seasons for both temperature and precipitation. Statistical evidence suggests that a substantial portion of these fluctuations are merely manifestations of a stochastic process which possesses weak year-to-year persistence as viewed a posteriori. The results emphasize the desirability of clearly stated a priori theories of climate change in formulating physical theories, as well as the limited usefulness of widely used climate normals.

Item #d89jan36

"Greenhouse Warming or Little Ice Age Demise: A Critical Problem for Climatology," S.B. Idso (U.S. Water Conservation Lab., Phoenix, Ariz.), Theor. Appl. Climatol., 39(1), 54-56, 1988.

A comparative analysis of long-term (several hundred year) temperature and CO₂ trends suggests that the global warming of the past century is not due to the widely accepted CO₂ greenhouse effect but rather to the natural recovery of the earth from the global chill of the Little Ice Age. Gaining a better understanding of the Little Ice Age looms as a critical problem in the climatology of the past with important implications for the climatology of the future.

Item #d89jan37

"New Results on the Strato-Mesospheric Cooling of the Northern Hemisphere (1969-78)," C. Varotsos (Hellenic Naval Acad., Piraeus, Greece), Earth, Moon, Planets, 41(2), 191-196, May 1988.

Rocketsonde-derived temperature trends within the Northern Hemisphere are examined. Stratospheric and lower mesospheric temperature fluctuations in some cases are about one order of magnitude larger than previously observed. The main features of the temperature trends throughout the decade 1969-78 are notably: 15 ° C cooling at 60 km; 5.5 ° C at 50 km; 5 ° C at 40 km; 4 ° C at 30 km; and 3.5 ° C at 20 km.

Item #d89jan38

"An Analysis of the 7-Year Record of SBUV Satellite Ozone Data: Global Profile Features and Trends in Total Ozone," G.C. Reinsel (Dept. Statis., Univ. Wisc., Madison WI 53706), G.C. Tiao et al., J. Geophys. Res., 93(D2), 1689-1703, Feb. 20, 1988.

Results show an average negative linear drift in SBUV and Dobson data of about -0.4% per year. Comparisons are also performed which indicate that trends obtained from SBUV data at the Dobson station network of locations over this period are quite similar to trend estimates obtained from the global SBUV series. Comparison of above SBUV data global trend estimate with a linear trend estimate shows it was considerably more negative with a much larger standard error. No firm conclusions can be drawn in terms of trends over such a short period.

Item #d89jan39

"Changes in SBUV Ozone Profiles Near Natal, Brazil, From 1979 to 1985," R.A. Barnes (Chemal Inc., POB 44, Wallops Island VA 23337), ibid., 1704-1717.

SBUV ozone amounts are significantly lower in 1985 than in 1979, with a distinct skew between the ozone profiles from the two data sets. There are corresponding changes in the backscattered radiances from SBUV for these data sets with a distinct wavelength dependence for the changes. There is also a direct relationship between radiance differences and differences in the ozone column amounts. Using SBUV values alone, it is not possible to separate atmospheric and instrumental changes.

Item #d89jan40

"Monitoring of the Integrated Column of Hydrogen Fluoride above the Jungfraujoch Station Since 1977 - the HF/HCl Column Ratio," R. Zander (Inst. Astrophys., Univ. Liège, B-4200 Liège-Ougrée, Belgium), G. Roland et al., J. Atmos. Chem., 5(4), 385-394, Dec. 1987.

Results deduced spectroscopically indicate a cumulative trend equivalent to 8.5 + or - 1% increase per year, as well as short-term variability which appears to be strongly correlated with meridional circulation patterns during the February-April months. Also, found that the integrated content of HF undergoes a seasonal change with an autumn minimum. The HF/HCl ratio derived from simultaneous HF and HCl measurements was 0.15 during 1977-79 and 0.24 for 1983-85.

Item #d89jan41

"Column Abundance and the Long-Term Trend of Hydrogen Chloride (HCl) above the Jungfraujoch Station," R. Zander (address immed. above), G. Roland et al., ibid., 395-404.

Based on an intensified set of measurements carried out over the last three years, a seasonal component in the total content of HCl has been established for the first time, showing a minimum occurring in early winter and a maximum during the spring.

Item #d89jan42

"Rocketsonde Evidence for a Stratospheric Temperature Decrease in the Western Hemisphere during 1973-85," J.K. Angell (NOAA-ERL, Silver Spring MD 20910), Monthly Weath. Rev., Nov. 1987.

Most models indicate that the stratospheric cooling induced by an increase in CO₂ and certain trace gases should increase with height almost up to the stratopause at 50 km. Rocketsondes become natural candidates in the attempt to detect a CO₂ effect through the observation of a decrease in high stratospheric temperature. This paper presents and discusses data from rocketsonde stations presently in operation.