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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 3, NUMBER 2, FEBRUARY 1990

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
GENERAL INTEREST, POLICY AND LAW

Item #d90feb1

"Climate and Smoke: An Appraisal of Nuclear Winter," R.P. Turco (Univ. Calif., Los Angeles CA 90024), O.B. Toon et al., Science, 247(4939), 166-176, Jan. 12, 1990.

New information on nuclear winter has been obtained from laboratory studies, field experiments and numerical modeling on a variety of scales (plume, mesoscale and global). For the most likely soot injections from a full-scale nuclear exchange, three-dimensional climate simulations yield midsummer land temperature decreases that average 10 to 20° C in northern mid-latitudes, with local cooling as large as 35° C, and subfreezing summer temperatures in some regions. Severe depletion of stratospheric ozone and disruption in monsoon precipitation are new problems associated with soot injections. Reaffirms the basic physics of nuclear winter and discusses remaining areas of uncertainty and research priorities.

Item #d90feb2

"Observational Determination of the Greenhouse Effect," A. Raval (Dept. Geophys. Sci., Univ. Chicago, Chicago IL 60637), V. Ramanathan, Nature, 342(6251), 758-762, Dec. 14, 1989.

Analysis of satellite measurements indicates the atmospheric greenhouse effect increases significantly with sea surface temperature, providing strong evidence of positive feedback between the greenhouse effect and both surface temperature and water vapor. The magnitude of the effect is consistent with climate model predictions. Demonstrates an effective method for directly monitoring, from space, future changes in the greenhouse effect. (R.D. Cess discusses this research on p. 736 of the same issue.)

Item #d90feb3

"Climate Change and International Politics: Problems Facing Developing Countries," P.H. Gleick (Pacific Inst., 1681 Shattuck Ave., S. H, Berkeley CA 94709), Ambio, XVIII(6), 333-339, 1989.

Discusses severe risks facing developing nations from rapid climatic changes. Suggests actions that both the industrialized and developing world can take to prevent or mitigate the worst effects. Slowing the rate of future change can increase the time available to understand and prevent the worst impacts as well as reduce the risks of international disputes and conflicts.

Item #d90feb4

"Potential Health Effects of Global Climatic and Environmental Changes," A. Leaf (Mass. General Hospital, Boston MA 02114), New England J. Medicine, 321(23), 1577-1583, Dec. 7, 1989.

The health consequences of global warming are potentially great but currently speculative. These include: (1) increased mortality from heat stress if the number of days ambient temperatures exceed 32° C increases, (2) increased respiratory irritants causing more lung diseases, and (3) increased incidence of skin cancer due to the thinning of the stratospheric ozone shield. Physicians should familiarize themselves with the changes occurring in the global environment, understand potential health consequences, and assist in educating the public and government policy makers about these threats and how to prevent them.

Item #d90feb5

"Global Change--Defining the Ill-Defined," M.F. Price (Environ. Societal Impacts Gr., NCAR, POB 3000, Boulder CO 80307), Environ., 31(8), 18-20, 42-44, Oct. 1989.

Global change should be operationally defined for practical research and decision making. Global change has progressed through three approaches: (1) the anthropogenic approach considers the interactions between people and their institutions; (2) the holistic approach extends the consideration to include the natural processes of the earth's system; and (3) the geocentric approach emphasizes these natural processes, with humankind just one of many factors. An integrated approach involving both science and society will be most beneficial.

Item #d90feb6

"Looking to Tomorrow: Technologies and Lifestyles," JAPCA, 39(11), 1427-1435, Nov. 1989. This opening plenary session of the Air and Waste Management Association's 82nd Annual Meeting overviewed ways air quality management technology can significantly reduce pollutants and improve energy efficiency, and highlighted the relationship between urban/regional air pollution and global pollution.

"Perspectives in Transportation," P.B. MacCready (AeroVironment Inc., Monrovia, Calif.), 1428. Regulations and incentives for new cars and trucks to decrease local pollutants should focus directly on decreasing pollutants and not dictate how the decrease is to be accomplished. Credits should be given for reducing pollutants far below permitted maxima.

"Global Projections of Energy and Electricity," C. Starr, M.F. Searl (Elec. Power Res. Inst., Palo Alto, Calif.), 1429-1432. Projects energy demand to the year 2060 by considering three cases: a continuation of present trends, the effect of substantial conservation by efficiency improvements, and the limiting case of zero per capita energy growth.

"Abating Air Pollution at Negative Cost via Energy Efficiency," A.B. Lovins (Rocky Mountain Inst., Snowmass, Colo.), 1432-1435. Advanced techniques for energy end-use efficiency can pay for very large direct and indirect reductions in emissions. Environmental priority can also be an economic priority.

Item #d90feb7

"Stratospheric Ozone Change," C. Jackman (Atmos. Chem. Dynamics Branch, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, Md.), Environ. Sci. Technol., 23(11), 1329-1332, 1989.

This constitutes a plenary lecture by the author at the Jekyll Island (Georgia) International Symposium on Environmental Analytical Chemistry. Suggests that all scenarios of attempting to control ozone depletion show that any effects of controls taken now will not become evident for at least 30 years. More must be learned about ozone and its variability before we can definitely establish a global trend, but it is apparent that ozone depletion in the Antarctic polar stratosphere is due to human activity.

Item #d90feb8

"The Recent Climate Record: What It Can and Cannot Tell Us," T.R. Karl, J.D. Tarpley et al., Rev. Geophys., 27(3), 405-430, Aug. 1989.

Considers our ability to quantify climate change with respect to near-surface air temperature, sea-surface temperature, precipitation, snow cover, sea ice, and vegetation measured from space and the earth's surface. Discusses calibration, observing practices, urbanization, station changes, data representativeness, data access and areal coverage. To better quantify future climate change, many data types and observing systems will have to be blended. Large data sets will have to be made accessible to scientists to check and verify climate change hypotheses.

Item #d90feb9

"Climate Change, Hydrology, and Water Resources," P.H. Gleick (Pacific Inst., 1681 Shattuck Ave., S. H, Berkeley CA 94709), ibid., 329-344.

Recent hydrological research strongly suggests that the greenhouse effect will alter timing and magnitude of runoff and soil moisture, change lake levels and affect water quality. Such changes raise the possibility of environmental and socioeconomic dislocations, and have important implications for future water resources planning and management.

Item #d90feb10

"Underestimating Ozone Depletion: The Meandering Road to the Montreal Protocol and Beyond," D.M. Doolittle (Sch. Law, Univ. Calif., Berkeley, Calif.), Ecol. Law Quart., 16(2), 407-441, 1989.

Reviews the history of ozone depletion. Explains the important provisions of the Montreal Protocol and attempts to determine if the Protocol has met its goal. The Montreal Protocol is based on optimistic underestimates that have marred the discussion of ozone depletion for over twenty years. Questions concerning the extent and rate of depletion and the possibilities for implementing environmentally safe CFC substitutes largely remain unanswered.

Item #d90feb11

"A Video Atlas of TOMS Ozone Data, 1978-88," D. Chesters (NASA/Goddard Lab. Atmos., Greenbelt MD 20771), A.J. Krueger, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 70(12), 1564-1569, Dec. 1989.

A time-lapse atlas of 3440 color-coded images, available on standard VHS videotape from NASA, presents a vivid picture of the earth's atmospheric dynamics and chemistry for scientists, educators, policy makers and citizens concerned about the global environment.

Item #d90feb12

"CO₂ and the Greenhouse Effect: Measures and Strategies of the German Coal Industry," G. Zimmermeyer, Glueckauf, 125(15/16), 956-963, Aug. 17, 1989. In German.

A high technical level of energy efficiency and energy saving would have to be introduced world-wide to maintain current levels of CO₂ emissions and delay doubling of atmospheric CO₂ by a few hundred years. Technologies and policies must be developed for further stages and measures. An international convention, which must be ratified at least by the most important CO₂ emitting countries, is desirable for joint action coordinated on a global scale.

Item #d90feb13

"Major Themes in Energy to 2010," special issue of Energy in Europe, Sep. 1989. Annual subscription price ECU 35; available in English, French, German and Spanish from Off. Official Publ. European Communities, Sales Dept., Section: Energy (WEC), L-2985 Luxembourg.

Discusses in five chapters the challenge of energy planning and policy, using three scenarios: (1) a conventional view with no fundamental changes in people's thinking about energy; (2) a conventional view revisited, where increased economic growth and emissions grow too quickly; and (3) sustained high economic growth in a clean environment. Four annexes provide an overview of energy demand and supply and emission balances.

Item #d90feb14

Call for Social Science Paper Proposals: A conference intended as a forum for social science theory and research presentations on causes, impacts and management of global change is planned for August or September 1990. Short proposals for papers should be sent to: William Riebsame, Natural Hazards Ctr., Campus Box 482, Univ. Colo., Boulder CO 80309.