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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 3, NUMBER 1, JANUARY 1990

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
TREND ANALYSIS

Item #d90jan19

"On the Relation between Atmospheric Ozone and Sunspot Number," J.K. Angell (Air Resour. Lab., ERL, NOAA, Silver Spring MD 20910), J. Clim., 2(11), 1404-1416, Nov. 1989.

Between 1966 and 1985, there has been very good agreement between observed global total ozone and global total ozone calculated from three 2-D stratospheric models that take into account the solar cycle, the time variation in trace gases, and nuclear tests. Both observed and calculated variations are closely related to variation in sunspot number. The observed variation in global total ozone, compared with the predicted variation from one of the models using the sunspot maximum in 1990, is in good agreement through the northern summer of 1988, if the impact of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) on global total ozone is taken into account.

Item #d90jan20

"Annual Cycle and Long-Term Trends of Circulation and Climate Variability over the Tropical Oceans," K. Wolter, S. Hastenrath (Dept. Meteor., Univ. Wisconsin, 1225 W. Dayton St., Madison WI 53706), ibid., 1329-1351.

Investigated trends in data obtained from ship observations and land station records for the period 1948-1983. Cluster analysis was used to reduce data volume, while preserving the large-scale signal from the most coherent regions. The following were among the trends observed: (1) increased prevalence of the negative Southern Oscillation phase accompanied the increase of El Niño occurrences, (2) a modulation of the annual cycle of circulation and rainfall regime over the western equatorial Atlantic, (3) warming in the Indian Ocean, and (4) seasonal influences in the Atlantic that aggravated the drought in sub-Saharan Africa.

Item #d90jan21

Correspondence on satellite data contamination related to sea surface temperature trend analysis, Nature, 341(6244), 695, Oct. 26, 1989. (See also the following entry.)

Item #d90jan22

"Biases in Satellite-Derived Sea-Surface-Temperature Data," R.W. Reynolds (Clim. Anal. Ctr., NMC/NWS/NOAA, Washington DC 20233), C.K. Folland, D.E. Parker, ibid., 728-731.

Shows that no significant trend can be seen in three analyses of global sea surface temperatures that are based on in situ data over the 6.5-year period between January 1982 and June 1988, nor in an independent analysis of sea-surface-temperature and land-air-temperature.

Item #d90jan23

"Trend Analysis of Aerosol-Corrected Umkehr Ozone Profile Data Through 1987," G.C. Reinsel (Dept. Stat., Univ. Wisconsin, Madison WI 53706), G.C. Tiao et al., J. Geophys. Res., 94(D13), 16,373-16,386, Nov. 20, 1989.

Considers trend analysis of stratospheric ozone profile data obtained from 10 stations. Results indicate an overall negative trend in Umkehr layers 7-9 for the period 1977-1987 and a positive solar cycle association in layers 4-9. Shows a substantial overall negative linear drift in solar backscattering ultraviolet data relative to corrected Umkehr data in layers 7-9, with estimated values of the drift of the order of -1.0% per year for layers 8 and 9.

Item #d90jan24

"Temperature Trends at the South Pole and McMurdo Sound," K.E. Trenberth (NCAR, POB 3000, Boulder CO 80307), J.G. Olson, J. Clim., 2(10), 1196-1206, Oct. 1989.

The persistence of temperature anomalies within each month shows that regular observations, about every three days, are required to produce a reliable climate record throughout the troposphere and lower stratosphere. Noticeable downward trends in temperature were found near the time of greatest variability, in late spring. This appears to be due to a delay in the spring warming apparently brought about by the diminished solar heating due to low ozone amounts associated with the ozone hole.

Item #d90jan25

"Arctic Sea Ice 1973-1987: Seasonal, Regional, and Interannual Variability," C.L. Parkinson (NASA, GSFC, Code 671, Greenbelt MD 20771), D.J. Cavalieri, J. Geophys. Res., 94(C10), 14,499-14,523, Oct. 15, 1989.

Analyzes sea ice extents using data derived from the Nimbus 5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer and the Nimbus 7 scanning multichannel microwave radiometer. The record as a whole gives no definitive indication from the varying sea ice extents of any consistent warming or cooling of the north polar region. The results are consistent with Hansen and Lebedeff's lack of a strong temperature trend in that period as well.