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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 3, NUMBER 6, JUNE 1990

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
TREND ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION

Item #d90jun23

Correspondence: "Greenland Ice Sheet: Is It Growing or Shrinking?" Science, 248(4953), 288, Apr. 20, 1990.

Item #d90jun24

"Indication of Increasing Solar Ultraviolet-B Radiation Flux in Alpine Regions," M. Blumthaler (Inst. Med. Phys., Univ. Innsbruck, Muellerstrasse 44, A-6020 Innsbruck, Austria), W. Ambach, ibid., 248(4952), 206-208, Apr. 13, 1990.

Measurements in the Swiss Alps indicate that there has been a slight increase of about 1% per year in the flux of solar ultraviolet-B radiation since 1981. The increase can be related to a long-term ozone depletion.

Item #d90jun25

"Atmospheric Methane: Recent Global Trends," M.A.K. Khalil (Inst. Atmos. Sci., Oregon Grad. Ctr., Beaverton OR 97006), R.A. Rasmussen, Environ. Sci. Technol., 24(4), 549-553, Apr. 1990.

Reports the average concentrations and trends from global measurements taken every week at six locations ranging in latitude from the Arctic to the Antarctic. This trend has not been constant but has varied between 12 + or - 2 and 23 + or - 2 ppbv/yr over 2-year periods, after seasonal variations are removed. This variation in trend at different times during the past decade accounts for the differences of trends reported in various studies.

Item #d90jun26

"Our Changing Climate," B. Eriksson (Swedish Meteor. Hydrolog. Inst. (SMHI), S 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden), H. Alexandersson, Agric. For. Meteor., 50(1/2), 55-64, Apr. 2, 1990.

Analyzes temperature, precipitation and air pressure observations from 1860-1987 for Sweden. During 1940-1988, areas of net cooling and warming in the Northern Hemisphere were of about equal size and magnitude. Although greenhouse gases have increased by >>15%, the temperature is still at the same level as during the 1940s.

Item #d90jun27

Comments and reply on "Urban Bias in Area-Averaged Surface Air-Temperature Trends," Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 71(4), 571-574, Apr. 1990.

Item #d90jun28

"Natural Variability of the Climate System and Detection of the Greenhouse Effect," T.M.L. Wigley (Clim. Res. Unit, Univ. East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK), S.C.B. Raper, Nature, 344(6264), 324-327, Mar. 22, 1990.

Shows how the ocean may produce low-frequency climate variability through passive modulation of natural forcing to produce substantial trends in global mean temperature on the century timescale. Simulations with a simple climate model are used to determine the main controls on internally generated low-frequency variability, and show that natural trends of up to 0.3° C may occur over intervals of up to 100 years. Concludes that this type of trend is insufficient to explain observed global warming during the twentieth century.

Item #d90jun29

"The Global Cycle of Carbon Monoxide: Trends and Mass Balance," M.A.K. Khalil (Inst. Atmos. Sci., Oregon Grad. Ctr., Beaverton OR 97006), R.A. Rasmussen, Chemosphere, 20(1/2), 227-242, 1990.

Almost all the CO emitted into the atmosphere each year is removed by reactions with OH radicals (85%), by soils (10%) and by diffusion into the stratosphere. The small imbalance between emissions and removal causes an increase of about 1% per year, probably from anthropogenic sources. Increasing CO may indirectly affect the global climate and contribute to widespread changes in atmospheric chemistry.

Item #d90jun30

"Trends of Tropospheric CO, N₂O and CH₄ as Observed at Cape Point, South Africa," E.-G. Brunke (Atmos. Sci., CSIR, Faure 7131, South Africa), H.E. Scheel, W. Seiler, Atmos. Environ., 24A(3), 585-595, 1990.

Presents the longest record (9 years) of CO mixing ratios in the Southern Hemisphere, indicating seasonal variations of CO and CH₄ mixing ratios with maximum values around October and minimum values in February/March. Mean annual CO mixing ratios show no significant trend, while N₂O increases at a rate of 0.2% per year for the period 1983 to 1987. Data for CH₄ show a reduction in the rate of increase to 0.7% per year during recent years.

Item #d90jun31

"Effects of Lateral Viscosity Variations on Postglacial Rebound: Implications for Recent Sea-Level Trends," P. Gasperini (Inst. Naz. Geofisica, 00161 Roma, Italy), D.A. Yuen, R. Sabadini, Geophys. Res. Lett., 17(1), 5-8, Jan. 1990.

Focuses on the current vertical and horizontal rates of postglacial rebound at the edge of the ice load and continental margins to assess the amount of sea level rise due to recent climatic changes. Modeled horizontal deformation rates along continental margins are much more affected by the lateral variations in viscosity and can be used in the future as constraints on mantle rheology.

Item #d90jun32

"Upper Ocean Temperature Variability in the Northeast Pacific Ocean: Is It an Indicator of Global Warming?" T.C. Royer (Inst. Marine Sci., Univ. Alaska, Fairbanks AK 99775), J. Geophys. Res., 94(C12), 18,175-18,183, Dec. 15, 1989.

Hydrographic measurements at 60° N and 149° W and sea surface temperatures on a 5° grid over the Northeast Pacific are used to examine low-frequency temperature variations. Concludes that coupling of temperature fluctuations with solar activity and lunar tides is possible, especially at high altitudes. The very low-frequency temperature fluctuations must be understood before we will be able to measure the effects of high-latitude climate changes.

Item #d90jun33

"On the Detection of Greenhouse Warming," A.R. Solow (Woods Hole Oceanog. Inst., Woods Hole MA 02543), J.M. Broadus, Clim. Change, 15(3), 449-453, Dec. 1989.

Examines two facts which have been cited as evidence of the onset of the greenhouse warming: the most recent value in a global temperature series is unusually warm, and the four warmest years on record occurred in the 1980s. Concludes that these facts do not support detection of greenhouse warming unless we are prepared to attribute all warming in the data to the greenhouse effect.

Item #d90jun34

"Trends of Atmospheric Methane During the 1960s and 1970s," M.A.K. Khalil (Inst. Atmos. Sci., Oregon Grad. Ctr., Beaverton OR 97006), R.A. Rasmussen, M.J. Shearer, J. Geophys. Res., 94(D15), 18,279-18,288, Dec. 20, 1989.

Measurements of atmospheric methane reported in the literature between 1962 and 1979 were analyzed to estimate the trends of methane from 1960 to 1980. The best estimate of the increasing trend during this period is 13 + or - 3 ppbv/yr, which is slightly less than the trend of 17 ppbv/yr for the past decade.

Item #d90jun35

"Surface Ozone: Trend Details, Seasonal Variations, and Interpretation," W.E. Janach (Zentralschweizerisches Technikum Luzern, CH-6048 Horw, Switz.), ibid., 18,289-18,295.

Historical data from rural and Alpine sites in Europe and selected recent measurements show how ozone concentrations increased and how the seasonal distribution varies at different locations. The observed trends and differences between seasonal distributions can be explained with the help of results from recent chemical modeling calculations.