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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 3, NUMBER 3, MARCH 1990

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
GLOBAL MODELING

Item #d90mar27

"Modeling Coastal Landscape Dynamics," R. Costanza (Ctr. Environ. Estuarine Stud., Univ. Maryland, Solomons MD 20688), F.H. Sklar, M.L. White, BioSci., 40(2), 91-107, Feb. 1990.

Analyses two historical scenarios of coastal ecosystems. The CELSS model simulation of long-term ecosystem changes demonstrates that spatially linked ecological and physical processes can be realistically modeled on modern supercomputers. Summarizes general climate impact conclusions that can be drawn from these studies.

Item #d90mar28

"Fifty Million Years Ago," B. McGowran (Dept. Geol., Univ. Adelaide, Adelaide S.A. 5001, Australia), Amer. Sci., 78(1), 30-39, Jan./Feb. 1990.

Parallel patterns of paleobiological and geological data suggest the causes of global change during a critical interval of earth history. Suggests that further study and confirmation of the Eocene patterns will aid extrapolation scenarios for the transition from the greenhouse world of one hundred million years ago to the icecap prone world of today.

Item #d90mar29

"Interhemispheric Asymmetry in Climate Response to a Gradual Increase of Atmospheric CO₂," R.J. Stouffer (GFDL/NOAA, Princeton Univ., Princeton NJ 08542), S. Manabe, K. Bryan, Nature, 342(6250), 660-662, Dec. 7, 1989.

Evaluates the climatic influence of increasing atmospheric CO₂ using a coupled model recently developed by GFDL. The model response shows a marked and unexpected interhemispheric asymmetry. In the circumpolar ocean of the Southern Hemisphere, a region of deep vertical mixing, the increase of surface air temperature is very slow. In the Northern Hemisphere, the model predicts that the warming of surface air is faster and increases with latitude, with the exception of the northern North Atlantic, where it is relatively slow because of the weakening of the thermohaline circulation.

Item #d90mar30

"How Will Changes in Carbon Dioxide and Methane Modify the Mean Structure of the Mesosphere and Thermosphere?" R.G. Roble (High Altitude Observ., NCAR, POB 3000, Boulder CO 80307), R.E. Dickinson, Geophys. Res. Lett., 16(12), 1441-1444, Dec. 1989.

Uses a global average model of the coupled mesosphere, thermosphere and ionosphere to examine the effect of trace gas variations. The mesosphere and thermosphere temperatures are expected to cool by about 10K and 50K, respectively, as the CO₂ and CH₄ mixing ratios are doubled. These regions are heated by similar amounts when the trace gas mixing ratios are halved. Compositional redistributions also occur in association with changes in the temperature profile.

Item #d90mar31

"Differences among Model Simulations of Climate Change on the Scale of Resource Regions," R.M. Cushman (Environ. Sci. Div., Oak Ridge Nat. Lab., Oak Ridge TN 37831), P.N. Spring, Environ. Mgmt., 13(6), 789-795, Nov./Dec. 1989.

Quantifies the differences in temperature and precipitation simulated by three major General Circulation Models (GCMs) for four specific regions: an agricultural region (the North American winter wheat belt), a hydrologic region (the Great Basin), a demographic region (the high-density population corridor of the northeastern United States), and a political region (the state of Texas). Considers the current climate (as a control), and the climatic response to CO₂ doubling. In each region, even when the data are averaged on a seasonal basis, marked differences occur in the areal average climate simulated by the different GCMs for both the current climate and the doubled-CO₂ climate.

Item #d90mar32

"An Energy Balance Climate Model Study of Radiative Forcing and Temperature Response at 18 ka," L.D. Danny Harvey (Dept. Geog., Univ. Toronto, Toronto, Ont. M5S 1A7, Can.), J. Geophys. Res., 94(D10), 12,873-12,884, Sep. 20, 1989.

Evaluates the separate contributions to changes in radiative forcing and in temperature response from hemi-spheric and global changes in land glacier ice, seasonal land snow cover, vegetation and sea ice. Examines the temperature and sea ice response when the model CLIMAP 18-ka land ice alone is applied to a CO₂ doubling with a range of parameter values representing temperature-liquid water content feedback.

Item #d90mar33

"Can Milankovitch Orbital Variations Initiate the Growth of Ice Sheets in a General Circulation Model?" D. Rind (Goddard Space Fl. Ctr., Inst. Space Stud., 2880 Broadway, New York NY 10025), D. Peteet, G. Kukla, ibid., 12,851-12,871.

Uses a climate model to investigate whether the growth of ice sheets could have been initiated by solar insolation variations. The model failed to maintain snow cover through the summer at locations of suspected initiation of the major ice sheets, despite the reduced summer and fall insolation. Experiments indicate a wide discrepancy between the model's response to Milankovitch perturbations and the geophysical evidence of ice sheet initiation. Implies that the model is not sensitive enough to climate forcing to predict future climate change.