February 28, 2007
GCRIO Program Overview
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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999
FROM VOLUME 4, NUMBER 12, DECEMBER 1991
GENERAL, POLICY, ECONOMICS
The Forest Sector: A World Bank Policy Paper, 104 pp., July 1991;
$6.95. Order stock #11917 from world-wide distributors or World Bank Pubs., POB
7247-8619, Philadelphia PA 19170 (add $3.50 shipping in U.S., $6 elsewhere).
In this first policy paper on forestry issued since 1978, the Bank describes
its new policy of conducting rigorous environmental assessments of any project
which may lead to the loss of primary forests, and not financing commercial
logging in primary moist tropical forests. Emphasizes the cross-sectoral and
international nature of the problem of global forest loss. The Bank will promote
forest zoning, encourage change in the incentives that lead to excessive
exploitation of forest resources, and insist that thorough environmental
assessments precede public investments. (See News, this Global Climate
Change Digest issue--Dec. 1991.)
Global Environmental Change: The Human Dimensions, Nat. Res.
Council, Dec. 1991. From Nat. Acad. Press, 2101 Constitution Ave. NW, Washington
DC 20418 (800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313); $29.95 + $3 shipping.
After a two-year study, a 15-member committee has concluded that behavioral
analysis is essential to environmental analysis, especially for understanding
the "driving forces" of global change such as deforestation,
population growth, economic growth and technological change. Interdisciplinary
research within the social sciences and close collaboration with the natural
sciences is needed, especially in three areas: human causes of global change,
human responses and consequences, and theories and methods for studying these
phenomena. A reorientation in scientific perspectives may be needed; progress
may be impeded if resources are channeled only into traditional fields that work
in isolation on pieces of a much larger puzzle. Recommends a comprehensive
national research program on the human dimensions of global change.
Limiting Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United States, U.S.
Dept. Energy, Dec. 1991. For executive summary contact Off. Public Affairs, Rm.
1E-206, U.S. DOE, Washington DC 20585 (202-586-5575); full copies available Jan.
The last of four global climate reports requested by Congress in a 1989
appropriations bill, this report analyzes options that would cap national CO2
emissions at 20% below recent levels by the year 2000 and at 50% below by the
year 2010. The former goal would cost $95 billion a year in the year 2000, and
would require a tax of $500 per metric ton of carbon, more than doubling the
price of gasoline. Results of macroeconomic models show that the U.S. economy
would be reduced by 1.4% in that year; the coal industry would be especially
affected. The maximum tax modeled in the analysis, $750 per metric ton, was
unable to achieve a 50% carbon emissions reduction in the year 2010.
Improving Automobile Fuel Economy: New Standards, New Approaches
(OTA-E-504), U.S. Congress, Off. Technol. Assessment, 115 pp., Oct. 1991, $5.50.
Order #052-003-01262-6, U.S. Govt. Printing Off., Washington DC 20402
Requested by Congress during its current debate over raising the efficiency
of the U.S. automobile fleet with fuel efficiency standards, and in part because
of global warming concerns. Examines what levels of fuel economy are technically
and economically feasible by what dates; what form of standard will deliver high
levels of fleet fuel economy with the least market distortion; and the safety
implications of requiring improved fuel economy. On the last issue, finds that
while there is cause for concern about the relationship between fuel economy and
safety, significant improvements in fuel economy should be possible over the
longer term (a decade) without compromising safety.
America's Energy Choices: Investing in a Strong Economy and a Clean
Environment, Oct. 1991. Alliance to Save Energy, 1725 K St. NW, S. 914,
Washington DC 20006 (202-857-0666); $15 (technical appendices $25 additional).
A team from the Alliance as well as from the American Council for an
Energy-Efficient Economy, the Natural Resources Defense Council, the Union of
Concerned Scientists, and the Tellus Institute evaluated three energy futures
representing increasingly aggressive use of new technologies. In the most
aggressive scenario, efficiency technologies could reduce U.S. energy use to
nearly half of its expected level by the year 2030, and renewable energy
resources could be quadrupled, resulting in a 70% decrease in carbon emissions.
In addition, the U.S. could potentially save hundreds of billions of dollars
over the next 40 years.
Pledge and Review Process: Possible Components of a Climate
Convention, Sep. 1991, £5. Royal Inst. Intl. Affairs, 10 St. James's
Square, London SW1 4LE, UK (tel: 071 930 2233).
Summarizes results of a closed meeting held at the Institute that were
submitted to a September negotiating session in Geneva. Concludes that the
pledge-and-review process proposed by Britain and Japan at a June session could
be made to work if pledges are clear and significant, and can be defined in such
a way that undertakings can be verified. (See Chem. & Indus., p.
642, Sep. 16, 1991.)
Reducing US Carbon Dioxide Emissions: The Cost of Different Goals,
D.W. Jorgenson, P.J. Wilcoxen, Nov. 1991, $20. Contact Jo-Ann Mahoney, Kennedy
Sch. Govt., Harvard Univ., 79 JFK St., Cambridge MA 02138 (617-495-1356);
two-page executive summary is also available.
Examines three CO2 reduction scenarios: hold emissions at 1990 levels;
reduce emissions to 20% below 1990 levels; and allow emissions to rise until the
year 2000, then hold them constant. The required levels of tax per ton of carbon
would be respectively $17, $60 and $8.55. The coal mining sector would diminish
substantially; aggregate output would be affected by changing the rates of
capital formation and productivity growth; and the loss of GNP would increase at
an increasing rate as the target becomes stricter.
Forestry and Forest Products as a Carbon Sink in New Zealand (FRI
Bull. No. 162), J.P. Maclaren, S.J. Wakelin, 1991. Forest Res. Inst., Private
Bag 3020, Rotorua, N.Z.
Considers the potential of plantation forestry for offsetting carbon
emissions from fossil fuel combustion in the country, by examining the national
forest estate for various management scenarios from 1990 through 2050. Concludes
that forest and forest products are important carbon sinks in New Zealand but do
not totally offset the country's carbon emissions from fossil fuels. To do so
would require increasing the current area of forests by about a factor of four.
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