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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 4, NUMBER 1, JANUARY 1991

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
TREND ANALYSIS

Item #d91jan52

"Global Increase of Atmospheric Molecular Hydrogen," M.A.K. Khalil (Ctr. Atmos. Studies, Oregon Grad. Inst., 19600 NW Von Neuman Dr., Beaverton OR 97006), R.A. Rasmussen, Nature, 347(6295), 743-745, Oct. 25, 1990.

From 1985 to 1989, the concentration of this trace gas, measured as H2, increased at an annual average rate of 3.2 + or - 0.5 parts per 109 by volume. Originating from anthropogenic sources, these higher levels will add more water vapor to the stratosphere where it can affect stratospheric O3.

Item #d91jan53

"Parallel Long-Term Trends across Four Marine Trophic Levels and Weather," N.J. Aebischer (The Game Conservancy, Fordingbridge, Hampshire SP6 1EF, UK), J.C. Coulson, J.M. Colebrook, ibid., 753-755.

Observed remarkable similarities in trends of abundances of phytoplankton, zooplankton and herring, in the breeding performance of the kittiwake gull, and in variations in weather pattern; these overlap over 33 years and over a portion of the North Sea. Construction of food-web models capable of reproducing the pattern could be used in interpreting and detecting global climate change.

Item #d91jan54

"Warming Trend in the Western Mediterranean Deep Water," J.P. Bethoux (Lab. Phys. Chim. Marines, Univ. Paris 6, UA CNRS, BP 8, F-06230 Villefranche sur Mer, France), B. Gentili et al., ibid., 437(6294), 660-662, Oct. 18, 1990.

The deep water mass (below 400 m) has remained at roughly a constant temperature and salinity from the turn of the century until recently. Measurements made in Dec. 1988 and Aug. 1989 show a trend of continuously increasing temperatures over the past 30 years which, after considering the Mediterranean heat budget and water flux, may be the result of greenhouse-gas-induced local warming. Salinity has also increased.

Item #d91jan55

"Atmospheric Emissions and Trends of Nitrous Oxide Deduced from 10 Years of ALE-GAGE Data," R. Prinn (Dept. Earth Sci., MIT, Cambridge MA 02139), D. Cunnold et al., J. Geophys. Res., 95(D11), 18,369-18,385, Oct. 20, 1990.

Average N₂O concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere are persistently higher than in the Southern Hemisphere; the global average linear trend lies in the range of 0.25 to 0.31% yr-1. Stratospheric dissociation is thought to be the major atmospheric sink for N₂O, but its sources, in addition to fossil fuel use, are thought to be land disturbance in the tropics, and fertilizer use in the midlatitudes.

Item #d91jan56

"Are Droughts Becoming More Frequent or Severe in the United States?" T.R. Karl (Nat. Clim. Data Ctr., NOAA, Asheville NC 28801), R.R. Heim Jr., Geophys. Res. Lett., 17(11), 1921-1924, Oct. 1990.

Found no evidence to support a drying trend in U.S. precipitation and/or drought climatology. However, considerable decadal variability in droughts, their areal extent, and the quality of precipitation suggests that major biophysical and socio-economic impacts are likely to accompany convincing evidence of a drought climatology.

Item #d91jan57

"Increased Cloudiness in the United States during the First Half of the Twentieth Century," T.R. Karl (addr. immed. above), P.M. Steurer, ibid., 1925-1928.

Changes in observing practices are primarily responsible for the reported increase in cloudiness during the first half of this century. Since the late 1940s, increasing cloud cover is confirmed by an inspection of sunshine data, daily temperature range, changes in instruments and instructions to observers.

Item #d91jan58

"Recent Observed Interdecadal Climate Changes in the Northern Hemisphere," K.E. Trenberth (NCAR, POB 3000, Boulder CO 80307), Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 71(7), 988-993, July 1990.

The major change that occurred in March-April 1988, with a transition from El Niño to a strong La Niña, may have ended the climate regime but still leaves open the question of long-term variability of El Niño events and any relationship with the greenhouse effect. It is vital to establish the linkages between changes in circulation, temperatures and precipitation to build an understanding of the climate changes.

Item #d91jan59

"Long-Term Trends in Ice Nucleus Concentrations," E.K. Bigg (12 Wills Ave., Castle Hill, 2154 N.S.W., Aust.), Atmos. Res., 25(5), 409-415, June 1990.

Ice nucleus concentrations, for Sydney (Australia), Ant-arctica, Tasmania and Hawaii, areas with records of longer than 25 years, have showed an apparent general decrease sufficiently large enough to have climatic implications. However, distinguishing between dynamic and microphysical causes of any such change in precipitation would be difficult. Recommends quantitatively establishing the relation between ice nucleus concentrations and cloud-radiative climate forcing.

Item #d91jan60

"Empirical Data on Contemporary Global Climate Changes (Temperature and Precipitation)," K. Ya. Vinnikov (State Hydrol. Inst., Leningrad, USSR), P. Ya. Groisman, K.M. Lugina, J. Clim., 3(6), 662-667, June 1990.

Found that global warming occurred during the last century with a mean trend of 0.5° C per century; annual precipitation over land in the 35° -70° N zone increased by 6%. Precipitation increases coincide with the results of general circulation modeling of doubled CO₂ equilibrium climate change by sign, but contradict by scale.

Item #d91jan61

"One Hundred Years of Global Warming," R.C. Balling (Dept. Geog., Arizona State Univ., Tempe AZ 85287), S.B. Idso, Environ. Conserv., 17(2), 165, Summer 1990. Presents land and ocean surface air temperature data to demonstrate there is no basis for global warming "hysteria."

Item #d91jan62

"Spectroscopic Observations of Atmospheric Trace Gases over Kitt Peak. 1. Carbon Dioxide and Methane from 1979 to 1985," L. Wallace (Nat. Optical Astron. Observ., POB 26732, Tucson AZ 85726), W. Livingston, J. Geophys. Res., 95(D7), 9832-9827, June 20, 1990. "...2. Nitrous Oxide and Carbon Monoxide from 1979 to 1985," ibid., 95(D10), 16,383-16,390, Sep. 20, 1990.

Using a Fourier transform spectrometer, found total column CO₂ was increasing by 0.4%/yr and CH₄ by 1.1%/yr, in agreement with air sampling measurements from other sites. N₂O showed no seasonal variation or trend. Found a large seasonal variation in CO, but because of inadequate sampling could detect no trend.

Item #d91jan63

"Perturbations to Tropospheric Oxidants, 1985-2035. 1. Calculations of Ozone and OH in Chemically Coherent Regions," A.M. Thompson (NASA-Goddard, Code 916, Greenbelt MD 20771), A.M. Huntley, R.W. Stewart, ibid., 95(D7), 9829-9844, June 20, 1990.

A one-dimensional photochemical model has been used to calculate future changes in tropospheric O3 and OH due to CO/NOx/CH₄ emissions and to possible changes in stratospheric O3 and tropospheric H2O. Calculations assuming stratospheric O3 depletion and climatic warming during this period show near cancellation of the tropospheric O3 enhancement and OH loss. Increased tropospheric O3 could complicate detection of stratospheric O3 change from measurements of total column O3.

Item #d91jan64

"Analysis of the Eight-Year Trend in Ozone Depletion from Empirical Models of Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet Instrument Degradation," J.R. Herman (NASA-Goddard, Greenbelt MD 20771), R.D. Hudson, G. Serafino, J. Geophys. Res., 95(D6), 7403-7416, May 20, 1990.

Argues that the basic empirical model of the SBUV instrument degradation used earlier in the analysis of the SBUV data is likely to lead to an incorrect estimate of the ozone trend. Currently archived SBUV ozone data should be used with caution for periods of analysis exceeding one year because yearly decreases they contain are too large.

Item #d91jan65

"Spectral Ultraviolet Intensity Measurements at 45° S: 1980 and 1988," A. Bittar (Phys. Eng. Lab., Lauder, Central Otago 9182, New Zealand), R.L. McKenzie, ibid., 95(D5), 5597-5603, Apr. 20, 1990.

Quantifies the spectral distribution and temporal variability of UV radiation in New Zealand. Ozone amounts were similar for the two periods with the measurements agreeing with calculated irradiances and there were no unexplained changes over the intervening period. The sensitivity of UV irradiance to ozone changes was shown in the spectral range 300 to 340 nm.

Item #d91jan66

"Recent Trends in Precipitation in Eastern Canada," M.B. Danard (Atmos. Dynamics Corp., 3052 Woodbridge Pl., R.R. 7, Victoria, B.C. V8X 3X3, Can.), M.I. El-Sabh, T.S. Murty, Atmos. Ocean., 28(1), 140-145, Mar. 1990.

Although precipitation has increased overall especially in winter and summer, considerable variation was observed, with precipitation declining in some regions. General circulation models that simulate the effect of doubling atmospheric CO₂ also show an increase in precipitation.

Item #d91jan67

"Are the Swiss Measurements Evidence of Ozone Depletion?" J. Staehelin (Lab. Atmosphärenphysik, Eidgenössiche Technische Hochschule Zürich ETH-Hönggerberg, CH-8093 Zürich, Switzerland), H.U. Dütsch, Chimia, 43, 338-348, 1990. In German; English abstract.

Information on the ozone trends at different altitudes obtained from long and extensive Swiss measurements strongly supports the theory of the beginning destruction of the ozone shield in the planetary atmosphere by anthropogenic activities. However, there is some indication that changes in the hemispheric stratospheric circulation also contributed to the observed ozone decrease.

Item #d91jan68

"Solar Constant Secular Changes," K.H. Schatten (NASA-Goddard, Greenbelt MD 20771), J.A. Orosz, Solar Phys., 125(1), 179-184, Jan. 1990.

The model for solar constant secular changes suggests that overextended time intervals a positive correlation of the solar constant with solar activity exists. Using this model a proxy solar constant is calculated for the past four centuries based upon the sunspot record; for the past nine centuries, based upon 14C observations; and for the next decade, based upon a dynamo theory model for the solar cycle. Climate modelers must take into account that the sun has been relatively active and thus bright in the latter half of this century, compared with the past few centuries.

Item #d91jan69

"Sea Surface Temperatures along the Coast of British Columbia: Regional Evidence for a Warming Trend," H.J. Freeland (Inst. Ocean Sci., POB 6000, Sidney, B.C. V8L 4B2, Can.), Can. J. Fish Aquat. Sci., 47(2), 346-350, Feb. 1990.

Examines daily sea surface temperature measurements made over a period of almost 80 years at 19 shore stations around the coast, 18 of which show a warming trend. The sea surface temperatures at sites exposed to the Pacific show very high coherence with global air temperature variations, but no relationship to the El Niño Southern Oscillation Signal.

Item #d91jan70

"Recent Studies on Long-Term Changes in the Sea," D.H. Cushing (198 Yarmouth Rd., Lowestoft, Suffolk NR32 4AB, UK), Freshwater Biol., 23, 71-84, 1990.

Three recent papers have established that recruitment of groups of fishes is linked to climatic factors on a spatial scale of hundreds of kilometers and in periods of some decades. Three examples were cited to link the magnitude of recruitment to differences in production.