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FROM VOLUME 4, NUMBER 1, JANUARY 1991

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
GLOBAL MODELING

Item #d91jan82

New Publication: Modelling of Geo-Biosphere Processes, a quarterly journal in English concerned with modeling micro- and macroscale processes, will debut in Sep. 1991, and will cover topics such as interactions of processes, modeling principals, conceptual and other types of models, model implementation and validation. Obtain authors' guidelines from: Catena Verlag, Brockenblick 8, W 3302 Cremlingen-Dested, FRG; tel: 05306/1530; fax: 05306/1560. For the first issue, submit papers by Mar. 1, 1991.

Item #d91jan83

"Development of Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models," G.A. Meehl (NCAR, POB 3000, Boulder CO 80307), Clim. Dynamics, 5(1), 19-33, Nov. 1990.

Coupling of general circulation models for atmosphere, ocean and sea ice dates to the late 1960s. The most recent advances in computing power and climate modeling tech-niques have allowed coarse grid models to be run synchronously. The next generation will run on faster, larger memory computers and will address problems involving atmospheric chemistry processes, detailed interactions with the biosphere, and climate sensitivity that is dependent on a more accurately modeled cryosphere.

Item #d91jan84

"Analysis of Climate Variability in General Circulation Models: Comparison with Observations and Changes in Variability in 2xCO₂ Experiments," L.O. Mearns (NCAR, addr. immed. above), S.H. Schneider et al., J. Geophys. Res., 95(12), 20,469-20,490, Nov. 20, 1990.

The NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM) was examined for several areas of the United States. The Chervin version underestimated interannual variability of temperature, but well reproduced relative variability of precipitation. Two versions overestimated daily temperature variability, while the Dickinson version accurately reproduced or underestimated it. The CO₂-perturbed run of the Washington version produced mixed results for changes in daily temperature variability and tended to produce increased daily variability for precipitation.

Item #d91jan85

"The Regional Hydrologic Impacts of Global Climate Change: The Role of Climate Models," G. Thomas (Dept. Geog., Univ. British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Can.), Global Planet. Change, 2(3-4), 343-368, Aug. 1990. An extensive review which also outlines future research directions.

Item #d91jan86

"Modeling of Trends in Measures of the Thermodynamic Variability of the Terrestrial Climatic System," A.A. Arskiy (Inst. Atmos. Phys., USSR Acad. Sci.), Izvestiya, Atmos. Ocean. Phys., 25(1), 1989. See pp. 1-8, English edition, dated Aug. 1989.

A nonsteady-state energy-balance model, incorporating random forces, was used for a linear-approximation analysis of trends in the variance of several climate-related parameters as a function of trends in the temperature regime of the terrestrial climatic system. Results were compared with empirical data. The variance of the meridional gradient of the near-surface temperature is found to increase in hemispheric warming related to CO₂ increase.

Item #d91jan87

"Bioclimatic Distribution of Vegetation for General Circulation Model Studies," K.C. Prentice (NASA-Goddard, 2880 Broadway, New York NY 10025), J. Geophys. Res., 95(D8), 11,811-11,830, July 20, 1990.

Evaluates four global bioclimatic schemes which use climate to determine the distribution of vegetation. Only about 40% of the observed land surface, mapped as 31 vegetation types, could be replicated by applying these schemes to two global climate data sets. After subdividing and regrouping the climates defined by the schemes, 77% of the predicted vegetative landscape corresponds with the distribution of present vegetation. This simple coupling of vegetation and climate allows the distribution of simulated vegetation to adjust to present or perturbed climate.

Item #d91jan88

"Sensitivity of the Equilibrium Surface Temperature of a GCM to Systematic Changes in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide," R.J. Oglesby (Dept. Geol., Yale Univ., POB 6666, New Haven CT 06511), B. Saltzman, Geophys. Res. Lett., 17(8), 1089-1092, July 1990.

The equilibrium response of surface temperature to atmospheric CO₂ concentration, for six values between 100 and 1000 ppm, is calculated from a series of general circulation model experiments. The response is nonlinear, showing greater sensitivity for the lower CO₂ values.

Item #d91jan89

"Potential Evapotranspiration and the Likelihood of Future Drought," D. Rind (NASA-Goddard, 2880 Broadway, New York NY 10025), R. Goldberg et al., J. Geophys. Res., 95(D7), 9983-10,004, June 20, 1990.

Uses the Palmer drought severity index and a new sup-ply-demand index, calculated from the Goddard GCM with transient and doubled CO₂ climate changes, to forecast future droughts. Both indices show increasing drought for the U.S. during the next century, with effects becoming apparent in the 1990s. If greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase rapidly, the model results suggest that severe drought will occur about 50% of the time by the 2050s.

Item #d91jan90

"Model Test of CCN-Cloud Albedo Climate Forcing," S.J. Ghan (Lawrence Livermore Nat. Lab., L-264, Livermore CA 94550), K.E. Taylor, J.E. Penner, Geophys. Res. Lett., 17(5), 607-610, Apr. 1990. There appear to be no significant compensating changes in cloud properties that would counteract the 1.7% global albedo increase resulting from a fourfold increase in marine CCN concentration.

Item #d91jan91

"Simple Model of Global Tropospheric Distribution of Chemically Low-Active Gases from Industrial Sources," A.S. Kabanov (Taifun Sci. Indus. Assoc.), Soviet Meteor. Hydrol., No. 3, 47-54, 1990. Eng. trans. of Meteor. i Gidrol., No. 3, 59-67, 1989.

A simple stationary diffusion model incorporating transport by large-scale atmospheric vortexes is proposed for gases whose lifetimes in the troposphere are much greater than their characteristic mixing time, and verified using observed global fields of CO₂. In a sample calculation, the concentration of carbonyl sulfide, the major source for the background sulfuric acid aerosol layer in the stratosphere, varied markedly with latitude in the Northern Hemisphere.

Item #d91jan92

"Climate Change and the Middle Atmosphere. Part I: The Doubled CO₂ Climate," D. Rind (NASA-Goddard, 2880 Broadway, New York NY 10025), R. Suozzo et al., J. Atmos. Sci., 47(4), 475-494, Feb. 15, 1990.

Using the GISS global climate/middle atmosphere model, found that doubled CO₂ produces warmer temperatures in the troposphere and generally cooler temperatures in the stratosphere. The middle atmosphere dynamical differences are on the order of 10% to 20% of the model values for the current climate, and along with the calculated temperature differences of up to some 10° C, may have an impact on the chemistry of the future atmosphere including that of stratospheric ozone and basic atmospheric composition.

Item #d91jan93

"The Representation of Continental Surface Processes in Atmospheric Models," R. Avissar (Dept. Meteor., Cook Coll., Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ 08903), M.M. Verstraete, Rev. Geophys., 28(1), 35-52, Feb. 1990.

An overview that focuses on issues rather than on details of implementation. Discusses the role of surface processes as an essential coupling between the surface and the atmosphere. In addressing parameterization of small-scale processes in large-scale models, pays special attention to the cases of bare ground and vegetated surfaces.

Item #d91jan94

"Implications of Tropical Deforestation for Climate: A Comparison of Model and Observational Descriptions of Surface Energy and Hydrological Balance," R.E. Dickinson (NCAR, POB 3000, Boulder CO 80307), Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond., 324B(1223), 423-431, Aug. 31, 1989.

Quantitative estimates of the impacts of tropical deforestation on climate can only be considered through use of models of climate that contain adequate treatments of both land and atmospheric components. The major source of discrepancy in models is found to be a large excess of simulated net surface radiation and an excess rainfall interception loss, a consequence of the excess radiation.

Item #d91jan95

"Climate Studies with a Coupled Atmosphere-Upper-Ocean-Ice Sheet Model," T. Fichefet (Inst. d'Astronomie, Univ. Catholique de Louvain, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium), C. Tricot et al., ibid., 329A, 249-261, 1989. In response to a projected CO₂ trend based on the scenario of Wuebbles et al., a two-dimensional zonally averaged model shows the annual hemispheric mean surface temperature to increase by 2° C between 1983 and 2063.