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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 4, NUMBER 6, JUNE 1991

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Item #d91jun18

The journal Plant, Cell, Environ. has announced a new section, "Plants and Climate Change," with Steve Long (Essex, U.K.) as editor. Expected are papers on physiological investigations, from plant cell to plant community, relating to how plants will respond to the combined changes in atmospheric CO₂ levels, increased temperatures, changed growing seasons, altered soil moisture levels associated with the greenhouse effect and increased ultraviolet radiation. For a free sample copy, contact Anna Rivers, Blackwell Sci. Pubs. Ltd., Osney Mead, Oxford OX2 0EL, UK.

Item #d91jun19

"The Development of Impact-Oriented Climate Scenarios," P.J. Robinson (Dept. Geog., Univ. N. Carolina, Chapel Hill NC 27514), P.L. Finkelstein, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 72(4), 481-490, Apr. 1991.

Surveyed a relatively small number of people familiar with using scenarios for impact assessment. Most respondents require regional scenarios with a temporal resolution of one day and a spatial resolution of 100 km. Techniques of climate analysis were reviewed for their suitability to meet specified scenario needs. Experience with scenario development and impact assessment is limited. Refinements will make scenarios more reliable and useful.

Item #d91jun20

"Sensitivity of Oxidant Concentrations on Changes in U.V. Radiation and Temperature," F.A.A.M. De Leeuw (Nat. Inst. Publ. Health & Environ. Protect., POB 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, Neth.), H.J. Van Rheineck Leyssius, Atmos. Environ., 25A(5-6), 1025-1032, 1991.

Modeled the sensitivity of episodic and long-term averaged ozone and oxidant concentrations on changes in temperature and UV radiation, for a receptor point in the central Netherlands. For a 10% decrease in ozone column density and a 10% increase in surface temperature, the increase in O3 98 percentile value is about 2.7%, increasing the number of exceedences of threshold values. A possible increase in natural VOC emissions from forests due to a global warming may further enhance the exceedences.

Item #d91jun21

"The Greenland Ice Sheet and Greenhouse Warming," P. Huybrechts (Geog. Inst., Vrije Univ. Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, B-1050 Brussels, Belg.), A. Letreguilly, N. Reeh, Global Planet. Change, 3(4), 399-412, Mar. 1991.

Used output from a comprehensive mass balance model to drive a high-resolution 3-D thermomechanic model of the ice sheet. The ice sheet is sensitive to global warming and ice volume will diminish if temperatures rise, despite a number of uncertainties in the analysis. A 1° C temperature increase would lead to a rise in worldwide sea level of 0.22 mm per year.

Item #d91jun22

"The Impact of Increasing Summer Mean Temperatures on Extreme Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in Phoenix, Arizona," R.C. Balling Jr. (Lab. Clim., Arizona State Univ., Tempe AZ 85287), J.A. Skindlov, D.H. Phillips, J. Clim., 3(12), 1491-1494, Dec. 1990. Analysis of observed temperatures shows that considerable caution should be used in predicting the occurrence of extreme temperatures from projected increases in mean temperature levels.

Item #d91jun23

"Climatic Change and Its Ecological Implications at a Sub-Antarctic Island," V.R. Smith (Dept. Bot., Univ. Orange Free State, Bloemfontein, S. Africa 9301), M. Steenkamp, Oecologia, 85(1), 14-24, Nov. 1990.

Marion Island (47° S, 38° E), typical of sub-Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems, is species poor with a simple trophic structure. A scenario is presented of the implications of rising CO₂ levels and ameliorating temperatures for ecosystem structure and functioning. Colonization by new biota as a result of changing ocean circulation patterns may be a major influence.

Item #d91jun24

"Impacts of Greenhouse Warming on Water Temperature and Water Quality in the Southern United States," E.J. Cooter (AREAL, US EPA, MD-80, Res. Triangle Pk. NC 27711), W.S. Cooter, Clim. Res., 1, 1-12, Sep. 9, 1990.

Uses well-established techniques to relate air temperature scenarios produced by GISS, GFDL and OSU global climate models to surface water temperatures, and, subsequently, to water quality through a waste load allocation model for streams. Surface water temperature increases of up to 7° C can be expected. Even though existing advanced treatment technology for drinking water supplies would be sufficient to maintain desirable levels of instream dissolved oxygen, it would be needed on a much wider scale. Shading from extensive riparian vegetation could offset some temperature increases.

Item #d91jun25

"Predicted Global Warming and Douglas-Fir Chilling Requirements," D.D. McCreary (Dept. Forestry, Univ. California, POB 249, Browns Valley CA 95918), D.P. Lavender, R.K. Hermann, Ann. Sci. For., 47, 325-330, 1990. Effects of various chilling periods on subsequent growth and bud break were examined for potted seedlings. The longest and coldest chilling treatment produced the greatest growth response for all seed sources. Results are discussed with reference to predicted global warming.

Item #d91jun26

"Natural Hydrocarbons, Urbanization and Urban Ozone," C.A. Cardelino (Sch. Earth, Atmos. Sci., Georgia Inst. Technol., Atlanta GA 30332), W.L. Chameides, J. Geophys. Res., 95(D9), 13,971-13,979, Aug. 20, 1990. Because a NOx-based ozone abatement strategy appears to be less sensitive to temperature increases than does a hydrocarbon-based strategy, model results suggest that a NOx strategy may prove to be more effective if temperatures continue to rise from urbanization and the greenhouse effect.

Item #d91jun27

"Effects of Climatic Change on the Thornthwaite Moisture Index," G.J. McCabe Jr. (US Geol. Survey, 810 Bear Tavern Rd., S. 206, W. Trenton NJ 08628), D.M. Wolock et al., Water Resour. Bull., 26(4), 633-643, Aug. 1990.

This useful indicator compares precipitation in an area to potential evapotranspiration. Estimates of changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation for doubled atmospheric CO₂ conditions derived from three general circulation models are used to study the response of the moisture index in the U.S. The index will decrease, implying a drier climate for most of the country. Changes in the moisture index are related mainly to changes in the mean annual potential evapotranspiration through mean annual temperature, rather than to changes in the mean annual precipitation.

Item #d91jun28

"Agroclimatology and Modeling--Water Relations of Differentially Irrigated Cotton Exposed to Ozone," P.J. Temple (Statewide Air Pollut. Res. Ctr., Univ. California, Riverside CA 92521), Agron. J., 82(4), 800-805, July-Aug. 1990. Field studies suggest that O3 may have little or no effect on the potential of cotton to adapt to or tolerate drought.

Item #d91jun29

"Vulnerability of the Indian Coastal Region to Damage from Sea Level Rise," S.R. Shetye (Nat. Inst. Oceanog., Dona Paula, Goa 403 004, India), A.D. Gouveia, M.C. Pathak, Current Sci., 59(3), 152-156, Feb. 1990.

The dominant effects will be a submergence of low-lying coastal areas and increased erosion, an increase in storm surges, and possible saltwater intrusion into coastal freshwater aquifers. The region most vulnerable to inundation is the Lakshadweep archipelago; the belt between 12° N and 18° N on the west coast is least vulnerable.