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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 4, NUMBER 11, NOVEMBER 1991

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
TREND ANALYSIS

Item #d91nov9

"Do Bidecadal Oscillations Exist in the Global Temperature Record?" J.B. Elsner (Dept. Meteor., Florida State Univ., Tallahassee FL 32036), A.A. Tsonis, Nature, 353(6344), 551 ff., Oct. 10, 1991.

Recently Ghil and Vautard concluded that any greenhouse warming signal will not be detectable for at least one or two more decades, because they had found a bidecadal oscillation (attributed to oceanic circulation) in a spectrum analysis of temperature records. This study analyzed the same data, as well as five other temperature records, but found no evidence of a bidecadal oscillation.

Item #d91nov10

"On the Utility of Radiosonde Humidity Archives for Climate Studies," W.P. Elliott (ARL, NOAA, Silver Spring MD 20910), D.J. Gaffen, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 72(10), 1507-1520, Oct. 1991. Comprehensively reviews the idiosyncrasies of U.S. radiosonde data, concluding that the water vapor climatology in the upper troposphere is not well known.

Item #d91nov11

Two articles from: J. Geophys. Res., 96(D9), Sep. 20, 1991.

"Global Average Ozone Change from Nov. 1978 to May 1990," J.R. Herman (Lab. Atmos., NASA-Goddard, Greenbelt MD 20771), R. McPeters et al., 17,297-17,305, Sep. 20, 1991. Recent recalibration and reprocessing of the TOMS data have determined that the global (69° S to 69° N) total ozone decrease over the 11-year period is 3.5%, in agreement with ground-based Dobson data. Removal of the apparent solar cycle effect reduces the net ozone loss to 2.66% per decade.

"Tropospheric Ozone in the Nineteenth Century: The Moncalieri Series," D. Anfossi (Inst. Cosmogeofis., Consiglio Nazionale Richerche, Corso Fiume 4, 10137 Torino, Italy), S. Sandroni, S. Viarengo, 17,349-17,352. Analyzed a 26-year (1868-1893) series of daily ozone readings performed at Moncalieri, northern Italy, by the Schönbein test paper technique, and converted the data to ppbv values. In comparison to one century ago, the ozone level in Europe has more than doubled at the surface and in the free troposphere.

Item #d91nov12

Three articles from: Atmos. Environ., 25A(9), 1991.

"Trend Analysis of Tropospheric Ozone Concentrations Utilizing the 20-Year Data Set of Ozone Balloon Soundings over Payerne (Switzerland)," J. Staehelin (Atmos. Phys., ETH-Hönggerberg, 8093-Zürich, Switz.), W. Schmid, 1739-1749. The series indicates an increase in annual mean concentrations of about 1% per year since 1969 in the upper troposphere. Trends for the lower troposphere, corrected for diurnal variation of ozone, are as high as 1.6% per year. Observed increases occurred mostly after 1981.

"A One-Year Record of Ozone Profiles in an Alpine Valley (Zillertal/Tyrol, Austria, 600-2000 m a.s.l.)," H. Puxbaum (Inst. Anal. Chem., Tech. Univ. Vienna, A-1060 Vienna, Austria), K. Gabler et al., 1759-1765. Data taken throughout 1987 support an ozone increase of a factor of two or three since the 1950s in the free troposphere of the Eastern Alps.

"Surface Ozone and Meteorological Predictors on a Subregional Scale," U. Feister (Meteor. Serv. GDR, Main Meteor. Observ., Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, DDR-1561, Ger.), K. Balzer, 1781-1790. Analysis of data from five stations in Germany during 1972-1987 shows that changes in cloudiness are probably not the main cause of long-term changes in surface ozone; they must be related to changes in circulation or ozone precursors.

Item #d91nov13

"Wave Climate Changes in the North Atlantic and North Sea," S. Bacon (Inst. Oceanog. Sci., Deacon Lab., Brook Rd., Wormley, Surrey, GU8 5UB, UK), D.J.T. Carter, Intl. J. Climatol., 11(5), 545-558, Aug. 1991. Reviewing all available data describing long-term trends in the wave climate, using both visual and instrumental estimates of wave height, showed an increase in mean wave height over the whole of the North Atlantic in recent years (possibly since 1950) of about 2% per year.

Item #d91nov14

Two articles from: J. Clim., 4(8), Aug. 1991.

"Recent Interannual Variations in Solar Radiation, Cloudiness and Surface Temperature at the South Pole," E.G. Dutton (Clim. Monitor. Lab., ERL/NOAA, 325 Broadway, Boulder CO 80303), R.E. Stone et al., 848-858. Examines year-to-year variability in the weekly, monthly and yearly average solar irradiance for 1976-1989, and monthly averages of observed sky cover and air temperature. Irradiance unexpectedly decreased steadily by 15% over the period during the late austral summer season, and was accompanied by increasing cloud cover; no trend is apparent for September through December.

"Secular Trend Surface Temperature at an Elevated Observatory in the Pyrenees," A. Bücher (Observ. Midi-Pyrénées, Univ. P. Sabatier, Toulouse, France), J. Dessens, 859-868. Mean annual temperature increased 0.83° C from 1882 to 1970 at an observatory located above the planetary boundary layer (2862 m MSL). Daily minimum temperature increased more (+2.11° C) while daily maximum decreased by 0.45° C. A 15% increase observed in mean annual cloudiness suggests the temperature trend probably results from increased cloud cover and possibly an increasing greenhouse effect.

Item #d91nov15

Two articles from J. Geophys. Res., 96(D8), Aug. 20, 1991.

"Spectroscopic Observations of Atmospheric Trace Gases over Kitt Peak. 3. Long-Term Trends of Hydrogen Chloride and Hydrogen Fluoride from 1978 to 1990," L. Wallace (Kitt Peak Observ., POB 26732, Tucson AZ 85726), W. Livingston, 15,513-15,521. Over the 12-year period HCl increased by a factor of two and HF by a factor of three. The fractional increases for these species, found primarily in the stratosphere, are comparable to published increases in the ground level concentrations of the halocarbons. The close correlation observed in the complicated variability of the species indicates a single mechanism is primarily responsible.

"Infrared Measurements of HF and HCl Total Column Abundances above Kitt Peak," 1977-1990: Seasonal Cycles, Long-Term Increases and Comparisons with Model Calculations," D.G. Rinsland (Atmos. Sci. Div., NASA-Langley, Hampton VA 23665), J.S. Levine et al., 15,523-15,540. Over the 13-year period, the HCl and HF total columns increased by factors of 1.8 and 3.2, respectively. The seasonal cycles show an early spring maximum and an early fall minimum. Results are compared with those of a 2-D, time-dependent photochemical model.

Item #d91nov16

"Global Warming as a Manifestation of a Random Walk," A.H. Gordon (Inst. Atmos. Sci., Flinders Univ. S. Australia, Bedford Pk., S. Australia), J. Clim., 4(6), 589-597, June 1991.

Examines year-to-year changes in global and hemispheric series of surface temperature anomalies to isolate any features that might contribute to the global warming of about 0.5° C observed over the past 100 years. Hypothesizes that the series are the result of a Markov process; the climate system is subjected to various forms of random impulses, but fails to return to its former state after reacting to an impulse because a net positive feedback slightly alters the environmental state.

Item #d91nov17

"Some Updated Statistical Assessments of the Surface Temperature Response to Increased Greenhouse Gases," D.-D. Schönwiese (Inst. Meteor., Univ. Frankfurt, Feldbergstr. 47, D-6000 Frankfurt a.M., Ger.), K. Runge, Intl. J. Clim., 11(3), 237-250, Apr. 1991. Revisions of an earlier multiple regression analysis include improved climatic data, the addition of ENSO and improvement of volcanic forcing parameters, introduction of a phase shift and inclusion of greenhouse gases other than CO₂.

Item #d91nov18

"Recent Trends in United States Precipitation," S.B. Idso, R.C. Balling (Lab. Clim., Arizona State Univ., Tempe AZ 85287), Environ. Conserv., 18(1), 71-73, Spring 1991.

Analysis of records from 934 U.S. stations shows that precipitation was constant from 1901 to 1954, but increased notably afterwards; the authors associate this increase with a coincident increase in SO2 emissions associated with industrialization. They suggest that, similarly, biological processes could be stimulated by increased CO₂, and this hypothesis should be researched further.

Item #d91nov19

Discussion on "Recent Trends in Precipitation in Eastern Canada," Atmos.-Ocean, 29(1), 175-178, Mar. 1991.

Item #d91nov20

"Can a Trend Be Ascertained in the Temperature of the Troposphere at Berlin?" W. Elling (M. Plank Inst. Aeronomie, D-3411 Lindau, Ger.), H. Schwentek, Beitr. Phys. Atmos., 64(1), 65-71, Feb. 1991.

Analysis of daily radiosonde data for 1958 to 1986 shows no sign of a trend. Due to scatter in the data, a significant trend can be determined at Berlin only if the change in temperature of the entire troposphere exceeds 0.6 + or - 0.1 K per decade.