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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 5, NUMBER 4, APRIL 1992

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
ENERGY POLICY AND ANALYSIS

Item #d92apr19

"Comparison of Forecasts from Aggregate and Disaggregate Models for Personal Vehicle Energy Consumption and CO₂ Emissions," R. Miles-McLean et al., K.E. Train (Dept. Econ., Univ. California, Berkeley CA 94720), Energy, 17(4), 321-329, Apr. 1992.

While disaggregate models are generally more policy sensitive than aggregate models, they may not track aggregate totals (such as total U.S. fuel consumption) as well. Forecasts of aggregate fuel consumption obtained from the DRI aggregate model and Train's disaggregate model are found to be similar, showing that in this case the disaggregate model can be used without loss of accuracy.

Item #d92apr20

"Greenhouse Gas Tax," R. Dorfman (Dept. Economics, Harvard Univ., Cambridge MA 02138), Science, 255(5049), 1194, Mar. 6, 1992. Letter arguing that a greenhouse gas tax would not cost consumers $95 billion a year as stated in a previous article; the expense would come back to them in various forms.

Item #d92apr21

Three items from a special issue on population, natural resources and development, Ambio, 21(1), Feb. 1992:

"Energy, Technology, Development," J. Goldemberg (Ministério da Educacao, Esplanada dos Ministérios, Bloco E, 40. andar, Brasilia, D.F. 70047 Brazil), 14-17. The challenge of eradicating poverty and underdevelopment in developing countries can only be met with the use of advanced technology, "leapfrogging" the path followed in the past by today's industrialized countries. Shows that energy consumption can be decoupled from economic development.

"Global Energy and Sustainability: A Complicated Matter," L. Kristoferson (Stockholm Environ. Inst., Box 2142, S-103 14 Stockholm, Swed.), 88-89. Discusses complementary and broader perspectives to the preceding paper by Goldemberg.

"World Population, Environment and Energy Demands," M. Rasmuson (Dept. Genetics, Umeå Univ., S-901 87 Umeå, Swed.), R. Zetterström, 70-74. High energy costs make the expansion of mechanized agriculture a dubious way to solve the global food crisis; it can only be solved through population control by family planning.

Item #d92apr22

"Economic Effects of a Carbon Tax in Belgium--Application with the Macrosectoral Model HERMES," F. Bossier (Bur. Plan-Planbur., Ave. des Arts, 47-49-B-1040, Brussels, Belg.), R. De Rous, Energy Econ., 14(1), 33-41, Jan. 1992.

Compares two scenarios, one with a carbon tax of about 23.5 ecus per ton of CO₂ emitted, and the other with that tax plus incentives for energy conservation investments. Results suggest that the tax alone is insufficient to achieve international targets for stabilizing CO₂ emissions; a combination of taxation with various forms of subsidies for investments is needed.

Item #d92apr23

"The Efficiency of Energy Use in the USSR--An International Perspective," R.C. Cooper (Energy Anal. Prog., Lawrence Berkeley Lab., Berkeley CA 94720), L. Schipper, Energy, 17(1), 1-24, Jan. 1992.

Presents an intensive analysis of the structure and intensity of energy use since 1960, with measures of sectoral and subsectoral activity in the industrial, transportation, residential and services sectors. In most cases the Soviet Union uses more energy than western countries to produce the same output. Aggregate measures used in previous analyses are inappropriate for comparisons of Soviet and western energy use or for predictions, because of the large differences in the structure and intensity of energy use. Concludes there is a large potential for energy savings in the Soviet economy.

Item #d92apr24

Special Issue: "Climate Change--Country Case Studies," J. Sathaye, Guest Ed., Energy Policy, 19(10), Dec. 1991. Single issues available from W. Dawson & Sons Ltd., Cannon House, Folkestone, Kent CT19 4EE, UK (tel: 0303-850101; fax: 0303-850440).

"Editor's Introduction," J. Sathaye, 906-910.

"Energy Policies and the Greenhouse Effect: A Study of National Differences," M. Grubb et al., 911-917.

"Policies to Reduce Energy Use and Carbon Emissions in the UK," G. Leach, 918-925.

"Energy and CO₂ Emissions in Korea: Long-Term Scenarios and Related Policies," H. Lee, J.C. Ryu, 926-933.

"Policies to Promote Energy Conservation in China," W. Zongxin, W. Zhihong, 934-939.

"Energy Demand and CO₂ Emissions Reduction Options in Nigeria," A.O. Adegbulugbe, 940-945.

"Energy Efficiency, Carbon Emissions and Economic Development in Venezuela," N.P. de Bustillos, A.M. Segnini, 946-952.

"Barriers to Improvements in Energy Efficiency," A.K.N. Reddy, 953-961.

"Long-Term Energy Scenarios for Mexico: Policy Options for Carbon Savings and Main Barriers," Y. Mendoza, O. Masera, P. Macías, 962-969.

"CO₂ Emissions Reduction by Price Deregulation and Fossil Fuel Taxation: A Case Study of Indonesia," S. Sasmojo, M. Tasrif, 970-977.

"Cost of Reducing CO₂ Emissions from India: Imperatives for International Transfer of Resources and Technologies," N. Mongia et al., 978-986.

"An Energy Development Strategy for the USSR: Minimizing Greenhouse Gas Emissions," A.A. Makarov, I. Bashmakov, 987-994.

"Opportunities for Carbon Emissions Control in Poland," S. Sitnicki et al., 995-1002.

"CO₂ Savings in Brazil: The Importance of a Small Contribution," G.M.G. Graca, A.N. Ketoff, 1003-1010.

Item #d92apr25

Four items from The Energy J., 12(4), Dec. 1991:

"Optimizing Tax Strategies to Reduce Greenhouse Gases without Curtailing Growth," R.E. Brinner, M.G. Shelby (Off. Policy Anal., U.S. EPA, 401 M St. SW, Washington DC 20460) et al., 1-14.

Summarizes a large study carried out by DRI/McGraw-Hill for the U.S. EPA, which estimated the levels of gasoline tax necessary to stabilize CO₂ emissions from the light vehicle fleet over a 20-year period, and the economic impacts of such a tax. Three options for utilizing revenues generated were examined. Two options resulted in reduced economic growth, while the third, a reduction in the employer-paid portion of income taxes, had positive long-term economic impacts.

"Testing for Barriers to Energy Conservation--An Application of a Vintage Model," A. Ingham (Univ. Southampton, Southampton SO9 5NH, UK), J. Maw, A. Ulph, 41-64.

Applies a sophisticated vintage model of the production structure of the U.K. manufacturing sector to analyze the pattern of energy conservation over the period 1971-1987. Half the improvement in energy efficiency resulted from replacing outdated capital present in 1971; after 1980, technical progress became increasingly important. No evidence of significant market barriers were found.

"The Trade-Off between Economic and Environmental Objectives in Japan's Power Sector," H. Amagai (Energy Prog., East-West Ctr., 1777 East-West Rd., Honolulu HI 96848), P.S. Leung, 95-105.

Presents a quantitative study of the trade-off between cost minimization and CO₂-emission minimization for electricity generation in Japan in the year 2000. Examines the nature of the trade-off curve, and the extent of power generation by various sources.

"Limits on the Economic Effectiveness of a Carbon Tax," R.K. Kaufmann (Ctr. Energy Environ. Studies, 675 Commonwealth Ave., Boston Univ., Boston MA 02215), 139-144.

The effectiveness of a carbon tax for reducing CO₂ emissions rests in part on the expectation that the tax would encourage the use of fuels (such as natural gas) which emit relatively less carbon. However, this assumption about fuel substitution is only partly confirmed by some recent analyses.

Correction to "The Cost of Australian Carbon Dioxide Abatement," 149-150.

Item #d92apr26

"Saving Energy: Pros and Cons," Issues Sci. Technol., 16-19, Winter 1991-92. Four letters on the M. Shepard article, "How to Improve Energy Efficiency."

Item #d92apr27

"Energy and Technology Options for CO₂ Emission Reduction: Towards Symbiotic Use of Nuclear Energy and Fossil Fuels," S. Yasukawa (Japan Atomic Energy Res. Inst., Tokyo, Japan), O. Sato et al., J. Atomic Energy Soc. Japan, 33(12), 1131-1141, Dec. 1991. In Japanese.

The potential for CO₂ emission reduction is analyzed by the MARKAL model applied to Japan between 1985 and roughly 2030, taking into account reduction measures such as energy conservation, fuel switching and technology substitution. Finds that nuclear power offers a large CO₂ reduction potential, through electric power generation and process heat applications.

Item #d92apr28

"Reducing Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Australian Energy Use," R. Marks (Grad. School Mgmt., Univ. New South Wales, POB 1, Kensington NSW 2033, Australia), Sci. Tot. Environ., 108(1-2), 111-121, Oct. 1991.

Analyzes three policy options for emission reduction in Australia: market-based, regulatory, and those based on persuasion and education. Recommends carbon taxes and lower interest rates.

Item #d92apr29

"Combined Heat and Power as a Contributory Means of Maintaining a Green Environment," Y. Taki (Dept. Appl. Energy, Cranfield Inst. Technol., Bedford MK43 0AL, UK), R.F. Babus'Haq, S.D. Probert, Appl. Energy, 39(2), 83-91.

Small-scale combined heat-and-power (CHP) systems are cheaper and environmentally cleaner than conventional generators, and deserve to be supported by the U.K. electric industry. This feasibility assessment compares CO₂ emissions from a mini-packaged CHP unit for a high-rise block of 126 flats, to the corresponding emissions from conventional power sources.

Item #d92apr30

"Energy Demands, Resources, Impact and Technology," M.A. Jefri (Dept. Chem., King Abdulaziz Univ., POB 9027, Jeddah 21413, Saudi Arabia), A.H. Zahed, Energy Sources, 13(4), 505-516, 1991.

Following an assessment of current world energy demand and resources, with an emphasis on the influence of the energy sources of Saudi Arabia, energy-related technologies such as hydrogen, solar and geothermal sources are examined. Impacts of energy use such as greenhouse gases are discussed, and a global perspective of energy conservation as related to the development of energy resources and developing countries is given.