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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 5, NUMBER 8, AUGUST 1992

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS: ECOSYSTEMS

Item #d92aug33

"Predicting the Impacts of Global Warming on Wildland Fire," M.S. Torn (Energy & Resour. Group, Univ. California, Berkeley CA 94720), Clim. Change, 21(3), 257-274, July 1992.

Simulations of a doubled CO₂ climate with the Changed Climate Fire Modeling System consistently projected increases in area burned and in the frequency of escaped fires. However, the magnitude of those increases was strongly influenced by vegetation type, choice of atmospheric GCM scenario, and choice of climatic forcing variables.

Item #d92aug34

"Interactions between Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics in Estimating Net Primary Productivity for Potential Vegetation in North America," A.D. McGuire (Marine Biol. Lab., Woods Hole MA 02543), J.M. Melillo et al., Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 6(2), 101-124, June 1992.

Describes various experiments using the process-based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, including evaluation of the importance of interactions between C and N dynamics in the response of North American forest net primary productivity to an elevated temperature of 2° C. The linkages between C and N dynamics are shown to be important in several respects.

Item #d92aug35

"Ecological Implications of Projected Climate Change Scenarios in Forest Ecosystems in Northern Michigan, USA," D.D. Reed (Sch. For., Michigan Technol. Univ., Houghton MI 49931), P.V. DeSankar, Intl. J. Biometeor., 36(2), 99-107, May 1992.

To evaluate the impacts on ecologically significant weather variables such as length of the frost-free period and the ratio of precipitation to potential evaporation in summer, changes in seasonal temperature and precipitation as predicted by several GCMs were combined with a stochastic daily weather simulation model. Even the lower range of predicted climate changes could lead to ecologically and commercially significant changes in the composition and productivity of these forests.

Item #d92aug36

"Predicted Changes in the Synchrony of Larval Emergence and Budburst under Climatic Warming," R.C. Dewar, A.D. Watt (Inst. Terr. Ecol., Bush Estate, Penicuik EH26 0QB, Midlothian, Scotland, UK), Oecologia, 89(4), 557-559, 1992.

Impacts of warming modeled for the Scottish uplands show that winter moth larvae would emerge earlier but the date of budburst of Sitka spruce would not change much, resulting in decreased synchrony between these two phenological events. Discusses the general question of how a change in climate might affect phenological synchrony and insect abundance.

Item #d92aug37

"Clonal Biology of the Temperate, Caespitose, Graminoid Schizachyrium scoparium--A Synthesis with Reference to Climate Change," J.M. Welker (Merlewood Res. Sta., Inst. Terr. Ecol., Grange Sands LA11 6JU, Cumbria, UK), D.D. Briske, Oikos, 63(3), 357-365, Apr. 1992.

Examines resource allocation and other characteristics of this large sub-group of clonal plants, based in part on isotopic and severing experiments. Discusses in detail why the impact of climate change on these plants is difficult to anticipate.