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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 5, NUMBER 8, AUGUST 1992

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
TREND ANALYSIS

Item #d92aug45

Two items from Clim. Change, 21(3), July 1992:

"Climate Spectra and Detecting Climate Change," P. Bloomfield (Dept. Statistics, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh NC 27695), D. Nychka, 275-287.

Considers how large a change in a climatic measurement can be expected as a result of natural variability, by modeling 128 years of global temperature data as a stationary Gaussian time series. Results highlight the time scales on which it is important to know the magnitude of natural variability.

"Breaking Recent Global Temperature Records," G.W. Bassett (Dept. Econ. (MC-144), Univ. Illinois, Box 802451, Chicago IL 60680), 303-315.

Assesses the probability that the global surface temperature record of 1988 will be surpassed in the next few years, using a variety of simple statistical models, and shows how record breaking is greatly influenced by alternative model specifications. Results suggest that another record in the next few years would not be a rare event.

Item #d92aug46

"The Recent Maximum Temperature Anomalies in Tucson: Are They Real or an Instrumental Problem?" R. Gall (NCAR, POB 3000, Boulder CO 80307), K. Young et al., J. Clim., 5(6), 657-665, June 1992.

Several analyses indicate that the temperature measurement system at the Tucson National Weather Service Office indicates daytime temperatures that are 2 to 3 degrees too high, and nighttime temperatures that are too cool. Discusses the impact on the climate record of this measurement system, used at many other sites in the country.

Item #d92aug47

"Geothermal Research Related to Past Climate," T. Lewis (Geolog. Surv. Can., Pacific Geosci. Ctr., Sidney, B.C. V8L 4B2, Can.), Eos, 73(25), 265, 269, June 23, 1992.

An overview of attempts to determine recent climate by analyzing temperature perturbations still propagating downward in bedrock. Results from Canada confirm the temperature minimum in the mid- to late-19th century determined from tree ring analysis.

Item #d92aug48

"Comparisons of Observed Ozone and Temperature Trends in the Lower Stratosphere," A.J. Miller (NOAA Clim. Analysis Ctr., 5200 Auth Rd., Washington DC 20233), Geophys. Res. Lett., 19(9), 929-932, May 4, 1992.

Uses a 62-station set of rawindsonde observations to compare negative trends in stratospheric ozone from 1970 with trends in temperature at the same altitude, and compares results to changes in temperature determined from a radiative equilibrium model. Calculated and observed trends agree in shape and magnitude.

Item #d92aug49

"Middle Atmosphere Cooling," R.R. Garcia (NCAR, POB 3000, Boulder CO 80307), Nature, 357(6373), 18, May 1992.

Discusses findings of the paper by Clemesha et al. (next entry) which adds to evidence, like the recently reported increase in the frequency of polar mesospheric clouds, that the initial signs of global change are to be sought in the upper atmosphere.

Item #d92aug50

"A Long-Term Trend in the Height of the Atmospheric Sodium Layer: Possible Evidence for Global Change," B.R. Clemesha (Inst. Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, CP 515, 12201, Sao José dos Campos, Sao Paulo, Brazil), D.M. Simonich, P.P. Batista, Geophys. Res. Lett., 19(5), 457-460, Mar. 3, 1992.

Analysis of a series of lidar measurements shows the existence of a long-term trend in the centroid height of the atmospheric sodium layer, which fell by about 700 m between 1972 and 1987. The observed change is consistent with long-term trends in mesospheric temperatures detected by other techniques, and may be a result of greenhouse warming.

Item #d92aug51

"Aspects of Monitoring Local Regional Climate Change in a Tropical Region," E. Jauregui (Ctr. Ciencias Atmosfera, Natl. Autonomous Univ. Mexico, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico), Atmosfera, 5(2), 69-78, Apr. 1, 1992.

Uses annual mean minimum temperatures to examine climatic change in Mexico over the past half century. Urban warming is evident at stations located in tropical cities with rapidly growing populations; records from smaller cities follow global temperature changes (warming before the 1940s and cooling in the 1960s and 1970s).

Item #d92aug52

"Spatial and Subseasonal Patterns of the Long-Term Trends of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall," K. Rupa Kumar (Indian Inst. Trop. Meteor., Bhabha Rd., Pune-411008, India), G.B. Pant et al., Intl. J. Clim., 12(3), 257-268, Apr. 1992.

Monthly data from 306 stations well distributed over India were analyzed over 114 years (1871-1984) for monthly and seasonal trends. Some broad contiguous areas showing significant trends were identified. The subseasonal patterns indicate that the excess or deficiency of the monsoon rainfall is more frequently realized in the later half of the season.

Item #d92aug53

"Discontinuous Changes of Precipitation in Japan after 1900 Detected by the Lepage Test," T. Yonetani (Natl. Res. Inst. for Earth Sci. & Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305, Japan), J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 70(1), 95-104, Feb. 1992.

Regional changes in precipitation were statistically analyzed using data from 52 stations. Sharp changes in annual precipitation occurred over wide areas of Japan around 1924, 1949 and 1960; similar changes were also detected in seasonal amounts. Results correspond to reports of discontinuous climate changes on a global scale in the 1920s and around 1950.

Item #d92aug54

"Urban Bias Influences on Long-Term California Air Temperature Trends," J.D. Goodridge (31 Rondo Ct., Chico CA 95928), Atmos. Environ., 26B(1), 1-7, 1992.

Analysis of shelter-level temperatures over an 80-year interval at 112 stations show that warming by sea surface temperatures and urban heat island effects influence the magnitude of the warming trend observed in the overall data set.

Item #d92aug55

"Problems Associated with Smoothing and Filtering of Geophysical Time-Series Data," D.A. Howarth (Dept. Geog., Univ. Louisville, Louisville KY 40292), J.C. Rogers, Phys. Geog., 13(1), 81-99, Jan.-Mar. 1992.

Presents guidelines for the construction of simple time-series filters that facilitate the analysis of geophysical data. Examples of filter design and associated problems are illustrated using precipitation data from South America.