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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 5, NUMBER 12, DECEMBER 1992

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
GENERAL INTEREST AND POLICY

Item #d92dec1

Two items from Ambio, 21(6), Sep. 1992:

"Stabilizing Atmospheric Concentrations: Towards International Methane Control," J. Rotmans (Dept. Math., RIVM, POB 1, 3720 Bilthoven, Neth.), M.G.J. den Elzen et al., 404-413.

An international policy on methane need not wait until carbon dioxide controls have been settled. Model calculations indicate that a 10% reduction of current methane emissions combined with stabilization of carbon monoxide emissions by 2025 would probably stabilize methane at present levels. Controls of CFCs, HCFCs and NOx would have an adverse effect on methane concentrations, requiring greater methane reductions. An international protocol on methane should focus on technology transfer and increased research especially in developing countries.

"Using Tropical Forests to Fix Atmospheric Carbon: The Potential in Theory and Practice," T.D. Bekkering (DVH Consultants, ARD Dept., POB 1399, 3800 BJ Amersfoort, Neth.), 414-419.

Based on predictions of population growth and land use in 117 tropical countries as well as wood utilization trends and market developments, the maximum potential for two strategies are evaluated: forest conservation and forest expansion. For sequestering CO₂, 15 countries have major potential for conservation, while afforestation should be concentrated in 11 countries. However, the contribution to reducing atmospheric CO₂ levels is at best moderate, and dramatic increases in activities of the Forestry Action Plan would be required.

Item #d92dec2

Two items from Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 73(10), Oct. 1992:

"Global Warming: A Reduced Threat?" P.J. Michaels (Dept. Environ. Sci., Univ. Virginia, Charlottesville VA 22903), D.E. Stooksbury, 1563-1577.

Examines evidence bearing on the currently popular apocalyptic vision of climate change, such as temperature histories and trace gas concentrations, artificial warming from urban heat islands, high-latitude and diurnal temperatures, direct effects of increased CO₂ on vegetation, and compensatory cooling from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. The sensitivity of climate to anthropogenic aerosols, and the general lack of previously predicted global warming could drastically alter the debate in favor of less expensive policies.

"Shifts in Perceptions of Climate Change: A Delphi Experiment Revisited," S.A. Changnon (Illinois St. Water Survey, 2204 Griffith Dr., Champaign IL 61820), W.M. Wendland, J.M. Changnon, 1623-1627.

Compares results of similar polls of atmospheric scientists in the midwestern U.S. made in 1982 and in 1992, concerning their perceptions of current climate trends and the climate-change issue. In both polls, a large majority believed that information being presented to them on the topic was confusing to them and to the lay public. Half the 1992 respondents believed that evidence that a change in climate will occur was convincing, up from 20% in 1982. In 1992 half thought enhanced global warming had begun, and half did not.

Item #d92dec3

"Profitably Stabilizing Global Climate," A.B. Lovins (Rocky Mtn. Inst., 1739 Snowmass Creek Rd., Snowmass CO 81654), L.H. Lovins, Clim. Change, 22(2), 89-94, Oct. 1992.

Summarizes a more extensive paper (pp. 433-531 in Annual Rev. Energy & Environ., 1991, listed in GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE DIGEST, Books/Energy, Oct. 1992) by countering ten prevalent myths about avoiding climate change, for instance, that abating climate change would be costly, and that if cost-effective abatements were available, they would already have been used.

Immediately following is a rebuttal by W.R. Cline (Inst. Intl. Econ., 11 Dupont Cir. NW, Washington DC 20036), who finds the implication that global warming can easily be resolved at a profit is detrimental to the policy debate; the fundamental mistake of the Lovinses is to confuse one-time shifts in efficiency with very long-term trends.

Item #d92dec4

Two items from Environment, 34(8), Oct. 1992:

"How Should We Judge UNCED's Success?" P.M. Haas (Dept. Political Sci., Univ. Massachusetts, Amherst MA 01003), M.A. Levy, E.A. Parson, 6-11, 26-33.

"A Summary of the Major Documents Signed at the Earth Summit and the Global Forum," E.A. Parson (Kennedy Sch. Govt., Harvard Univ., Cambridge MA 02138), P.M. Haas, M.A. Levy, 12-15, 34-36.

Item #d92dec5

"Institutions for the Earth: Promoting International Environmental Protection," M.A. Levy (Dept. Political Sci., Princeton Univ., Princeton NJ 08544), P.M. Haas, R.O. Keohane, ibid., 34(4), 12-17, 29-36, May 1992.

International environmental protection may only come with the assistance of international institutions that promote states' sovereignty. Analyzes the roles such institutions have played in problems such as ozone depletion and acid rain. Includes a section on greenhouse gas negotiations.

Item #d92dec6

"A Proposal in Observation of Biosphere Day: Repairing the Biosphere through a Global Commons Trust Fund," C.D. Stone (Law Ctr., Univ. Southern California, Los Angeles CA 90089), Environ. Conserv., 19(1), 3-5, Spr. 1992.

Proposes a fund for correcting and preventing global environmental damage, to be raised as user fees on common resources. These would take the form of taxes on carbon-based fuels, certain pollutants, waste dumping in the oceans, ocean fishing and the like. Explains how the necessary infrastructure exists, and how this proposal differs from others.

Item #d92dec7

"Future Concentrations of Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases CO₂, CFC, and CH₄: An Assessment on the Educational Level," S. Hoppenau (M. Planck Inst. Meteor., Bundesstr. 55, D-2000, Hamburg 13, Ger.), Amer. J. Phys., 60(5), 408-415, May 1992.

Describes a model, designed as a teaching tool, that is suitable for a personal computer, and takes into account CO₂, CFC and CH₄ emissions, and deforestation and population growth.

Item #d92dec8

"Barry Commoner: Making Peace with the Planet," K.A. Strasser (Law School, Univ. Connecticut, Storrs CT 06269), Ecology Law Quart., 19(2), 413-430, 1992. In a lengthy review of Commoner's book (Pantheon Books, 292 pp., 1990, $19.95), the author concludes that policy makers must realize how economics and politics are essential for crafting a more effective environmental agenda.

Item #d92dec9

"Adapting to Climate Change: A Study of International Rivers and Their Legal Arrangements," G. Goldenman (Comm. European Communities, Environ. Directorate, Brussels, Belg.), ibid., 17(4), 741-802, 1990. Examines the legal and institutional arrangements among nations which share rivers, to assess what can be done now to develop peaceful, equitable and cooperative ways of accommodating and mitigating the impacts of climate change.

Item #d92dec10

"Towards Sustainable Development," R.E. Munn (Inst. Environ. Studies, Univ. Toronto, Toronto ON M5S 1A4, Can.), Atmos. Environ., 26A(15), 2725-2731, Oct. 1992.

Considers the meaning, history and application to the future of sustainable development. Because long-term environmental policy formation always involves uncertainty, there is an urgent need for methods of policy formation that leave options open and permit continuous review and adaptation of policies. Examples from Canada and IIASA in Austria are discussed.