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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 5, NUMBER 1, JANUARY 1992

REPORTS...
GENERAL INTEREST AND POLICY

Item #d92jan72

Canadian Reports released Dec. 18, 1991 (both also available in French):

Understanding Atmospheric Change--A Survey of the Background Science and Implications of Climate Change and Ozone Depletion (SOE Rep. 91-2), H. Hengeveld, 68 pp., Mar. 1991. Available from State of the Environ. Reporting, Environ. Canada, Ottawa, Ont. K1A 0H3.

The first in a series of annual reports on the state of Canadian climate, intended to provide Canadians with careful, objective analysis and interpretation of data on conditions and trends. Background information is followed by a summary of expected impacts on Canada and other parts of the world, Canadian and international policy responses, and the role of the individual in daily life.

Climate Change and Canadian Impacts: The Scientific Perspective (CCD 91-01), Can. Climate Prog. Board, 30 pp., 1991. Single copies from Can. Climate Ctr., 4905 Dufferin St., Downsview, Ont. M3H 5T4 (no charge).

The first definitive Canadian summary of current scientific knowledge about global warming, prepared by a board of experts from government, universities and the private sector, based on the recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as well as on other studies conducted in Canada. It concludes that while some impacts on Canada could be positive, most will likely be negative, and Canada could be significantly affected by changes in world trade patterns, especially in agricultural products. Industrial countries including Canada will be expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through vigorous energy efficiency and conservation programs and major reforestation.

Item #d92jan73

The Cost of Controlling Carbon Dioxide Emissions (CRA No. 858.00), W.D. Montgomery (Charles River Assoc.), 32 pp., Dec. 1991. Single copies no charge from Pub. Relations, Amer. Petroleum Inst., 1220 L St. NW, Washington DC 20005 (202-682-8112).

(See News Notes, this GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE DIGEST issue--Jan. 1992.) Reviewed the results of four economic models of the impact of energy on the economy (Manne-Richels Global 2100, Jorgenson-Wilcoxen, Edmonds-Reilly from Oak Ridge, and Data Resources Inc.), and two recent technology studies that use engineering calculations to assess potential gains in energy efficiency (U.S. Off. Technol. Assessment, Nat. Acad. Sci.). The economic models appear to be superior policy guides to the technology studies, which incorrectly claim that government policies can reduce CO₂ emissions at no cost. However, policy makers can learn from all six analyses; Global 2100 has insights into new energy technologies, and Jorgenson-Wilcoxen captures some of the market dynamics of investment and industry shifts. But no current model adequately treats commercial and industrial purchases of new energy technologies, especially end-use technology.

Concludes that stabilizing CO₂ emissions would require a carbon tax of $200 per ton or more, which would decrease the gross national product by 1.7% by the year 2020. Economic benefits would not appear until the end of the next century and might not exceed 0.5% of GNP. Allowing time for improvements in nuclear power and other nonfossil energy sources and technologies might reduce greenhouse gases more cheaply than immediate controls.

Item #d92jan74

Survey of Scientists' Views on the IPCC Report, R. Kerr, J. McManus, Sep. 1991. Washington Inst., 1015 18th St. NW, S. 300, Washington DC 20036 (202-293-7440); $20.

(See News Notes, this GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE DIGEST issue--Jan. 1992.) Questionnaires were sent to 126 scientists: most of the American IPCC participants, who wrote chapter drafts; 31 reviewers of the drafts; and a group of 24 uninvolved with the IPCC process who hold skeptical attitudes on the subject. Forty percent of those involved with the IPCC and nearly all the skeptical group believed the summary might convey a misleading message to the public, through its emphasis on the certainty of a natural greenhouse effect. Nearly all the IPCC group agreed (1) with a conclusion found in the full report that it is not possible to attribute even a large part of the observed global warming since 1890 to enhanced greenhouse effect, based on observational data; (2) existing climate models have not been adequately validated using the existing climate record.

Item #d92jan75

State of the World 1992, L.R. Brown et al., 250 pp., Jan. 1992. Worldwatch Inst., 1776 Mass. Ave. NW, Washington DC 20036 (202-452-1999); $19.95 hbk./$10.95 pbk.; volume discounts available.

This year's report includes chapters on shifting to a sustainable energy economy, strengthening international environmental governance and several other topics. Tables include world fossil fuel use and carbon emissions for 1990 (see News Notes, this GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE DIGEST issue--Jan. 1992).

Item #d92jan76

Ozone Protection Policies: A Briefing Book, several hundred pp., Nov. 1991. Alliance for CFC Responsibility, 1901 N. Ft. Myer Dr., 12th Fl., Arlington VA 22209 (703-243-0344); $125. A desk reference emphasizing U.S. policy and regulations at the federal, state and local levels. Contains a section of industrial information, and excerpts from the Montreal Protocol.

Item #d92jan77

Carbon Dioxide and Climate: Summaries of Research in FY 1991 (DOE/ER-0508T), U.S. Dept. Energy, 204 pp., Oct. 1991. From Carbon Dioxide Info. Analysis Ctr., Oak Ridge Nat. Lab., Oak Ridge TN 37831 (615-574-0390); no charge.

Provides general program goals and organization as well as roughly one-page summaries of individual projects funded inside and outside of the Department of Energy, in categories including oceanic and atmospheric modeling, the Earth's radiation balance, quantitative links between atmospheric composition change and climate change, resource analysis, vegetation research, information and integration, and projects through the National Institute for Global Environmental Change.