February 28, 2007
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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999
FROM VOLUME 5, NUMBER 6, JUNE 1992
"Meridionally Propagating Interannual-to-Decadal Variability in a
Linear Ocean-Atmosphere Model," (see Prof. Pubs./Global Modeling, this GLOBAL
CLIMATE CHANGE DIGEST issue--June 1992).
"Trends in Global Temperature," P. Bloomfield (Dept. Statistics,
Box 8203, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh NC 27695), Clim. Change,
21(1), 1-16, May 1992.
Application of statistical models shows that there is uncertainty in the
amount of temperature change over the past century of up to ± 0.2
° C, but the change of about one half of a degree is significantly
different from zero. Results also show that the temperature changes observed to
date are compatible with a wide range of sensitivities to doubled CO2.
"Recent Great-Lakes Ice Trends," H.P. Hanson (CIRES, Univ.
Colorado, Boulder CO 80309), C.S. Hanson, B.H. Yoo, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,
73(5), 577-584, May 1992.
Ice observations made over the past 35 years by cooperative observers at
shoreline stations show a statistically significant change in the North American
Great Lakes ice season, with spring ice departure coming increasingly earlier at
some locations. The record, combined with other types of data, could be useful
for monitoring climate change.
"Ground Temperature Histories for Central and Eastern Canada from
Geothermal Measurements: Little Ice Age Signature," H. Beltrami (GEOTOP,
Univ. Québec, POB 8888, Sta. A, Montréal, Qué H3C 3P8,
Can.), J.-C. Mareschal, Geophys. Res. Lett., 19(7), 689-692,
Apr. 3, 1992. Clear signs of a cold period (1500-1800 A.D.) were found in deep
borehole temperature profiles, as well as a warming trend after 1800 that is
correlated with the increase of atmospheric CO2 reported for a Greenland ice
"Australian Rainfall Trends during the Twentieth Century," N.
Nicholls (Bur. Meteor. Res. Ctr., POB 1289K, Melbourne 3001, Australia), B.
Lavery, Intl. J. Climatol., 12(2), 153-163, Mar. 1992.
Meticulous analysis of rainfall records supports previous studies showing
altered precipitation over Australia since about 1950, but it is possible the
trends reflect a return to conditions of the nineteenth century rather than a
Two items from Clim. Change, 20(3), Mar. 1992:
"The Changing Frequency of Dust Storms through Time," A.S. Goudie
(Sch. Geog., Univ. Oxford, Mansfield Rd., Oxford OX1 3TB, UK), N.J. Middleton,
197-225. An extensive analysis of dust storm frequency in nine regions of the
world, based on meteorological data, shows no single global pattern of
dust-storm frequency trend.
"Climatic Fluctuations on the Century Time Scale: A Review of
High-Resolution Proxy Data and Possible Mechanisms," T.F. Stocker (Ctr.
Clim. Change Res., McGill Univ., Montréal, Québec H3A 2K6, Can.),
L.A. Mysak, 227-250. A review of evidence for natural climatic variations over
the past 10,000 years leads authors to propose that decadal-to-century
fluctuations are dominated by natural variability in the ocean-atmosphere heat
flux, rather than by external forcing (solar output).
"Assessing Climate Persistence from Climatic `Noise,'" U. Radok
(CIRES, C.B. 449, Univ. Colorado, Boulder CO 80309), ibid., 20(2),
155-167, Feb. 1992. Proposes assessing changes in climate through small-sample
variances, which can be monitored on a short time scale with a sequential
sampling procedure, rather than through differences of means, which require a
long record of data to yield reliable results.
"Black Spruce Growth Forms as a Record of a Changing Winter
Environment at Treeline, Québec, Canada," C. Lavoie (Ctr. études
Nord, Univ. Laval, St. Foy, Qué. G1K 7P4, Can.), S. Payette, Arctic &
Alpine Res., 24(1), 40-49, Feb. 1992.
Winter conditions at treeline in subarctic Quebec over the past 400 years
(including the Little Ice Age) have been reconstructed through comparative
analysis of tree rings and growth forms of black spruce. Increased tree height
and increased base level of abrasion from windblown snow indicate a trend toward
warmer and snowier conditions in the 20th century.
"Estimation of Ground Surface Temperatures from Borehole Temperature
Data," K. Wang (Pacific Geosci. Ctr., Geol. Survey Canada, POB 6000,
Sidney, B.C. V8L 4B2, Can.), J. Geophys. Res., 97(B2),
2095-2106, Feb. 10, 1992.
A new method of inferring past climatic fluctuations from temperature-depth
profiles applied to data from Canada shows a brief cold period around the turn
of this century followed by rapid warming until 1940-1950, in good agreement
with the trend of Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures.
"The Spatial Distribution of the Association between Total Ozone and
the 11-Year Solar Cycle," K. Labitzke (Inst. Meteor., Free Univ. Berlin,
Dietrich-Schäfer Weg 6-10, 1000 Berlin 41, Germany), H. van Loon, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 19(4), 401-403, Feb. 21, 1992. A method for removing the
influence of the solar cycle from ozone analyses, used in the WMO ozone
assessment report to compare two-year means a decade apart, was not completely
Two items from J. Geophys. Res., 97(D2), Feb. 20, 1992:
"Global Average Concentration and Trend for Hydroxyl Radicals Deduced
from ALE/GAGE Trichloroethane (Methyl Chloroform) Data for 1978-1990," R.
Prinn (Ctr. Global Change Sci., Mass. Inst. Technol., 54-1312, Cambridge MA
02138), D. Cunnold et al., 2445-2461.
Measurements of the anthropogenic chemical methyl chloroform made between
1978 and 1990 show an increase of 4.4% per year, and imply that the global
average OH concentration is increasing at 1.0 ± 0.8% per year. The OH
increase has implications for the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere,
particularly of methane, and is qualitatively consistent with hypothesized
changes in tropical OH due to biomass burning and other influences.
"Surface Ozone Levels at the End of the Nineteenth Century in South
America," S. Sandroni (Environ. Inst., Joint Res. Ctr., 21020 Ispra,
Italy), D. Anfossi, S. Viarengo, 2535-2539.
Provides evidence that the two- to three-fold increase in tropospheric ozone
observed over the past century in the Northern Hemisphere was also present in
the Southern Hemisphere. Examination of late nineteenth century observations
from Uruguay and Argentina shows that ozone levels at that time were comparable
to those in Europe at the same time.
"Effect of Melting Glaciers on the Earth's Rotation and
Gravitational Field--1965-1984," A.S. Trupin (Dept. Phys., Univ. Colorado,
Boulder CO 80309), M.F. Meier, J.M. Wahr, Geophys. J. Intl., 108(1),
1-15, Jan. 1992.
Finds a smaller decrease in glacier volume over the period 1965 to 1984 than
in the period 1900 to 1961. Empirical orthogonal function analysis shows that
satellites may eventually be able to discern changes in the Earth's glaciers
through the gravitational field.
Two items from J. Clim., 4(12), Dec. 1991:
"Low-Frequency Changes in El Niño Southern Oscillation,"
D.B. Enfield (NOAA/AOML/PHOD, 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami FL 33149), L.
Cid S., 1137-1146. A statistical analysis of El Niño occurrences recorded
since 1525 A.D. shows that the recurrence rate is stationary with respect to
long-term climate changes, and return intervals of strong events are
nonstationary at centenary time scales.
"Stratospheric Temperature Change as a Function of Height and Sunspot
Number during 1972-89 Based on Rocketsonde and Radiosonde Data," J.K.
Angell (ARL, ERL, NOAA, Silver Spring MD 02910), 1170-1180. Greenhouse gases are
expected to produce stratospheric cooling. This analysis shows a stratospheric
temperature decrease during 1979-1985 in agreement with results presented in WMO
Report No. 20, but suggests that much of that cooling is associated with a
change in sunspot number.
"Spectral Analysis and Trend of Total Ozone Observations at
Vigna-di-Valle," M. Cervino (CNR, Fisbat, I-40126 Bologna, Italy), G.
Giovanelli, Il Nuovo Cimento, 14C(6), 575-585, Nov.-Dec. 1991.
Measurements made at this Italian observatory show a decrease in total ozone of
0.4% per decade over the period 1970 to 1987, presumably related to destruction
by CFCs, whereas the longer period 1959 to 1987 showed an increasing trend of
0.1% per decade.
"Statistical Analysis of Trends in Climatic Series," V.G.
Alekseyev (Inst. Atmos. Phys., USSR Acad. Sci.), Izvestiya, Atmos. Ocean
Phys., 26(6), 1990 (English Ed., p. 415 ff., Jan. 1991). Proposes
statistical estimates of the first and second derivatives of the trend of a
climatic time series at the end point of the observation interval, and applies
the technique to precipitation data from Moscow and Athens.
"Decreasing Diurnal Temperature Range: CO2 Greenhouse or SO2 Energy
Balance Effect?" R.C. Balling Jr. (Dept. Geog., Arizona State Univ., Tempe
AZ 85287), S.B. Idso, Atmos. Res., 26(5), 455-459, Sep. 1991.
The trend in U.S. diurnal temperature range over the past 63 years appears
related to the trend of global industrial productivity. This observation
implicates SO2-modulated energy balance perturbations, rather than a CO2
greenhouse effect, as the agent responsible for the observed decrease in diurnal
temperature range over the past three decades.
Two items from Theor. Appl. Clim., 44(3-4), 1991:
"Sulfate Aerosols of the Stratosphere and Troposphere: Combined Effects
on Surface Air Temperature," R.C. Balling Jr. (address above), S.B. Idso,
Data show that the decrease in stratospheric sulfate aerosols over the past
century has led to a global surface air warming of 0.17° C. The post-war
growth in tropospheric sulfate aerosols has caused the Northern Hemisphere to
cool substantially compared to the Southern, where we may see the earliest
possible estimate of any trace gas warming effect unadulterated by aerosol
"A Statistical Hypothesis on Global Greenhouse-Induced Temperature
Change," C.-D. Schönwiese (Inst. Meteor. Geophys., J.W. Goethe Univ.,
Praunheimer Landstr. 70, DW-6000, Frankfurt a. M. 90, Ger.), 243-245. Uses a
statistical model to separate past and future impacts on global mean temperature
of greenhouse gases, compared to volcanic, solar and ENSO forcing.
"The Missing Part of the Greenhouse Effect," A. Zacca (Dip.
Fis., Univ. Trento, Trento, Italy), R.S. Brusa, Il Nuovo Cimento, 14C(5),
523-532, Sep.-Oct. 1991. Analysis of global average temperatures from 1860 to
1989 with a simple fitting procedure supports an albedo increase caused by SO2
emissions. Greenhouse warming in the near future could be faster than has been
"Detecting Climatic Transitions: Statistical and Dynamical Aspects,"
S. Vannitsem (Inst. Roy. Météor. Belg., 3 Av. Circulaire, B-1180,
Bruxelles, Belg.), C. Nicolis, Beitr. Phys. Atmos., 64(3),
245-254, Aug. 1991. Surveys statistical tests designed to determine whether
transitions have occurred in a climatic record, evaluates their characteristics
using mathematically generated time series, and applies them to records of
annual surface temperature and oxygen isotopes.
Two items from Theor. Appl. Clim., 44(1), 1991:
"Surface Air Temperature Response to Increasing Global Industrial
Productivity: A Beneficial Greenhouse Effect?" S.B. Idso (Dept. Geog.,
Arizona State Univ., Tempe AZ 85287), R.C. Balling Jr., 37-41.
Comparison of data on global industrial production and U.S. climate records
suggests that the net effect of greenhouse gases and certain biologically
modulated negative feedbacks related to cloud characteristics may be increased
nighttime minimum temperatures, with no effect on daytime values. Such a
response could be beneficial.
"Long-Term Decline in the Frequency of Gale-Force Winds in West
Germany," G.R. Weber, 43-46. A significant decline has been observed over
the period 1956-1989, especially in the 1970s.
"Analysis of Australian Rainfall Data with Respect to Climate
Variability and Change," R. Srikanthan (Hydrol. Branch, Bur. Meteor., GPO
Box 1289K, Melbourne 3001, Australia), B.J. Stewart, Aust. Meteor. Mag.,
39(1), 11-20, Mar. 1991. While annual rainfall data from 69 stations
indicate no conclusive evidence of climate change impacts, a third of the
stations show a change in winter rainfall occurring around the turn of the
"Recursive Forecasting, Smoothing and Seasonal Adjustment of
Non-stationary Environmental Data," P.C. Young (Inst. Environ. Studies,
Univ. Lancaster, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK), C.N. Ng et al., J. Forecasting,
10(1-2), 57-89, Jan. 1991. Presents a unified approach based on
time-variable parameter versions of various well-known time series models, and
demonstrates its utility on atmospheric CO2 and sea surface temperature anomaly
"Structure and Variability of the Modern Climate," G.V. Gruza,
Soviet Meteor. Hydrol., No. 7, 9-13 (Eng. trans. of Meteor.
i Gidrol., No. 7, 14-18, 1990). Presents new evaluations of characteristics
of the Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature record for 1891-1985, based
on recommendations of the WMO.
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Index of Abbreviations