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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 5, NUMBER 6, JUNE 1992

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
TREND ANALYSIS

Item #d92jun62

"Meridionally Propagating Interannual-to-Decadal Variability in a Linear Ocean-Atmosphere Model," (see Prof. Pubs./Global Modeling, this GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE DIGEST issue--June 1992).

Item #d92jun63

"Trends in Global Temperature," P. Bloomfield (Dept. Statistics, Box 8203, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh NC 27695), Clim. Change, 21(1), 1-16, May 1992.

Application of statistical models shows that there is uncertainty in the amount of temperature change over the past century of up to ± 0.2 ° C, but the change of about one half of a degree is significantly different from zero. Results also show that the temperature changes observed to date are compatible with a wide range of sensitivities to doubled CO₂.

Item #d92jun64

"Recent Great-Lakes Ice Trends," H.P. Hanson (CIRES, Univ. Colorado, Boulder CO 80309), C.S. Hanson, B.H. Yoo, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 73(5), 577-584, May 1992.

Ice observations made over the past 35 years by cooperative observers at shoreline stations show a statistically significant change in the North American Great Lakes ice season, with spring ice departure coming increasingly earlier at some locations. The record, combined with other types of data, could be useful for monitoring climate change.

Item #d92jun65

"Ground Temperature Histories for Central and Eastern Canada from Geothermal Measurements: Little Ice Age Signature," H. Beltrami (GEOTOP, Univ. Québec, POB 8888, Sta. A, Montréal, Qué H3C 3P8, Can.), J.-C. Mareschal, Geophys. Res. Lett., 19(7), 689-692, Apr. 3, 1992. Clear signs of a cold period (1500-1800 A.D.) were found in deep borehole temperature profiles, as well as a warming trend after 1800 that is correlated with the increase of atmospheric CO₂ reported for a Greenland ice core.

Item #d92jun66

"Australian Rainfall Trends during the Twentieth Century," N. Nicholls (Bur. Meteor. Res. Ctr., POB 1289K, Melbourne 3001, Australia), B. Lavery, Intl. J. Climatol., 12(2), 153-163, Mar. 1992. Meticulous analysis of rainfall records supports previous studies showing altered precipitation over Australia since about 1950, but it is possible the trends reflect a return to conditions of the nineteenth century rather than a greenhouse effect.

Item #d92jun67

Two items from Clim. Change, 20(3), Mar. 1992:

"The Changing Frequency of Dust Storms through Time," A.S. Goudie (Sch. Geog., Univ. Oxford, Mansfield Rd., Oxford OX1 3TB, UK), N.J. Middleton, 197-225. An extensive analysis of dust storm frequency in nine regions of the world, based on meteorological data, shows no single global pattern of dust-storm frequency trend.

"Climatic Fluctuations on the Century Time Scale: A Review of High-Resolution Proxy Data and Possible Mechanisms," T.F. Stocker (Ctr. Clim. Change Res., McGill Univ., Montréal, Québec H3A 2K6, Can.), L.A. Mysak, 227-250. A review of evidence for natural climatic variations over the past 10,000 years leads authors to propose that decadal-to-century fluctuations are dominated by natural variability in the ocean-atmosphere heat flux, rather than by external forcing (solar output).

Item #d92jun68

"Assessing Climate Persistence from Climatic `Noise,'" U. Radok (CIRES, C.B. 449, Univ. Colorado, Boulder CO 80309), ibid., 20(2), 155-167, Feb. 1992. Proposes assessing changes in climate through small-sample variances, which can be monitored on a short time scale with a sequential sampling procedure, rather than through differences of means, which require a long record of data to yield reliable results.

Item #d92jun69

"Black Spruce Growth Forms as a Record of a Changing Winter Environment at Treeline, Québec, Canada," C. Lavoie (Ctr. études Nord, Univ. Laval, St. Foy, Qué. G1K 7P4, Can.), S. Payette, Arctic & Alpine Res., 24(1), 40-49, Feb. 1992.

Winter conditions at treeline in subarctic Quebec over the past 400 years (including the Little Ice Age) have been reconstructed through comparative analysis of tree rings and growth forms of black spruce. Increased tree height and increased base level of abrasion from windblown snow indicate a trend toward warmer and snowier conditions in the 20th century.

Item #d92jun70

"Estimation of Ground Surface Temperatures from Borehole Temperature Data," K. Wang (Pacific Geosci. Ctr., Geol. Survey Canada, POB 6000, Sidney, B.C. V8L 4B2, Can.), J. Geophys. Res., 97(B2), 2095-2106, Feb. 10, 1992.

A new method of inferring past climatic fluctuations from temperature-depth profiles applied to data from Canada shows a brief cold period around the turn of this century followed by rapid warming until 1940-1950, in good agreement with the trend of Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures.

Item #d92jun71

"The Spatial Distribution of the Association between Total Ozone and the 11-Year Solar Cycle," K. Labitzke (Inst. Meteor., Free Univ. Berlin, Dietrich-Schäfer Weg 6-10, 1000 Berlin 41, Germany), H. van Loon, Geophys. Res. Lett., 19(4), 401-403, Feb. 21, 1992. A method for removing the influence of the solar cycle from ozone analyses, used in the WMO ozone assessment report to compare two-year means a decade apart, was not completely effective.

Item #d92jun72

Two items from J. Geophys. Res., 97(D2), Feb. 20, 1992:

"Global Average Concentration and Trend for Hydroxyl Radicals Deduced from ALE/GAGE Trichloroethane (Methyl Chloroform) Data for 1978-1990," R. Prinn (Ctr. Global Change Sci., Mass. Inst. Technol., 54-1312, Cambridge MA 02138), D. Cunnold et al., 2445-2461.

Measurements of the anthropogenic chemical methyl chloroform made between 1978 and 1990 show an increase of 4.4% per year, and imply that the global average OH concentration is increasing at 1.0 ± 0.8% per year. The OH increase has implications for the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere, particularly of methane, and is qualitatively consistent with hypothesized changes in tropical OH due to biomass burning and other influences.

"Surface Ozone Levels at the End of the Nineteenth Century in South America," S. Sandroni (Environ. Inst., Joint Res. Ctr., 21020 Ispra, Italy), D. Anfossi, S. Viarengo, 2535-2539.

Provides evidence that the two- to three-fold increase in tropospheric ozone observed over the past century in the Northern Hemisphere was also present in the Southern Hemisphere. Examination of late nineteenth century observations from Uruguay and Argentina shows that ozone levels at that time were comparable to those in Europe at the same time.

Item #d92jun73

"Effect of Melting Glaciers on the Earth's Rotation and Gravitational Field--1965-1984," A.S. Trupin (Dept. Phys., Univ. Colorado, Boulder CO 80309), M.F. Meier, J.M. Wahr, Geophys. J. Intl., 108(1), 1-15, Jan. 1992.

Finds a smaller decrease in glacier volume over the period 1965 to 1984 than in the period 1900 to 1961. Empirical orthogonal function analysis shows that satellites may eventually be able to discern changes in the Earth's glaciers through the gravitational field.

Item #d92jun74

Two items from J. Clim., 4(12), Dec. 1991:

"Low-Frequency Changes in El Niño Southern Oscillation," D.B. Enfield (NOAA/AOML/PHOD, 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami FL 33149), L. Cid S., 1137-1146. A statistical analysis of El Niño occurrences recorded since 1525 A.D. shows that the recurrence rate is stationary with respect to long-term climate changes, and return intervals of strong events are nonstationary at centenary time scales.

"Stratospheric Temperature Change as a Function of Height and Sunspot Number during 1972-89 Based on Rocketsonde and Radiosonde Data," J.K. Angell (ARL, ERL, NOAA, Silver Spring MD 02910), 1170-1180. Greenhouse gases are expected to produce stratospheric cooling. This analysis shows a stratospheric temperature decrease during 1979-1985 in agreement with results presented in WMO Report No. 20, but suggests that much of that cooling is associated with a change in sunspot number.

Item #d92jun75

"Spectral Analysis and Trend of Total Ozone Observations at Vigna-di-Valle," M. Cervino (CNR, Fisbat, I-40126 Bologna, Italy), G. Giovanelli, Il Nuovo Cimento, 14C(6), 575-585, Nov.-Dec. 1991. Measurements made at this Italian observatory show a decrease in total ozone of 0.4% per decade over the period 1970 to 1987, presumably related to destruction by CFCs, whereas the longer period 1959 to 1987 showed an increasing trend of 0.1% per decade.

Item #d92jun76

"Statistical Analysis of Trends in Climatic Series," V.G. Alekseyev (Inst. Atmos. Phys., USSR Acad. Sci.), Izvestiya, Atmos. Ocean Phys., 26(6), 1990 (English Ed., p. 415 ff., Jan. 1991). Proposes statistical estimates of the first and second derivatives of the trend of a climatic time series at the end point of the observation interval, and applies the technique to precipitation data from Moscow and Athens.

Item #d92jun77

"Decreasing Diurnal Temperature Range: CO₂ Greenhouse or SO2 Energy Balance Effect?" R.C. Balling Jr. (Dept. Geog., Arizona State Univ., Tempe AZ 85287), S.B. Idso, Atmos. Res., 26(5), 455-459, Sep. 1991.

The trend in U.S. diurnal temperature range over the past 63 years appears related to the trend of global industrial productivity. This observation implicates SO2-modulated energy balance perturbations, rather than a CO₂ greenhouse effect, as the agent responsible for the observed decrease in diurnal temperature range over the past three decades.

Item #d92jun78

Two items from Theor. Appl. Clim., 44(3-4), 1991:

"Sulfate Aerosols of the Stratosphere and Troposphere: Combined Effects on Surface Air Temperature," R.C. Balling Jr. (address above), S.B. Idso, 239-241.

Data show that the decrease in stratospheric sulfate aerosols over the past century has led to a global surface air warming of 0.17° C. The post-war growth in tropospheric sulfate aerosols has caused the Northern Hemisphere to cool substantially compared to the Southern, where we may see the earliest possible estimate of any trace gas warming effect unadulterated by aerosol effects.

"A Statistical Hypothesis on Global Greenhouse-Induced Temperature Change," C.-D. Schönwiese (Inst. Meteor. Geophys., J.W. Goethe Univ., Praunheimer Landstr. 70, DW-6000, Frankfurt a. M. 90, Ger.), 243-245. Uses a statistical model to separate past and future impacts on global mean temperature of greenhouse gases, compared to volcanic, solar and ENSO forcing.

Item #d92jun79

"The Missing Part of the Greenhouse Effect," A. Zacca (Dip. Fis., Univ. Trento, Trento, Italy), R.S. Brusa, Il Nuovo Cimento, 14C(5), 523-532, Sep.-Oct. 1991. Analysis of global average temperatures from 1860 to 1989 with a simple fitting procedure supports an albedo increase caused by SO2 emissions. Greenhouse warming in the near future could be faster than has been predicted.

Item #d92jun80

"Detecting Climatic Transitions: Statistical and Dynamical Aspects," S. Vannitsem (Inst. Roy. Météor. Belg., 3 Av. Circulaire, B-1180, Bruxelles, Belg.), C. Nicolis, Beitr. Phys. Atmos., 64(3), 245-254, Aug. 1991. Surveys statistical tests designed to determine whether transitions have occurred in a climatic record, evaluates their characteristics using mathematically generated time series, and applies them to records of annual surface temperature and oxygen isotopes.

Item #d92jun81

Two items from Theor. Appl. Clim., 44(1), 1991:

"Surface Air Temperature Response to Increasing Global Industrial Productivity: A Beneficial Greenhouse Effect?" S.B. Idso (Dept. Geog., Arizona State Univ., Tempe AZ 85287), R.C. Balling Jr., 37-41.

Comparison of data on global industrial production and U.S. climate records suggests that the net effect of greenhouse gases and certain biologically modulated negative feedbacks related to cloud characteristics may be increased nighttime minimum temperatures, with no effect on daytime values. Such a response could be beneficial.

"Long-Term Decline in the Frequency of Gale-Force Winds in West Germany," G.R. Weber, 43-46. A significant decline has been observed over the period 1956-1989, especially in the 1970s.

Item #d92jun82

"Analysis of Australian Rainfall Data with Respect to Climate Variability and Change," R. Srikanthan (Hydrol. Branch, Bur. Meteor., GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne 3001, Australia), B.J. Stewart, Aust. Meteor. Mag., 39(1), 11-20, Mar. 1991. While annual rainfall data from 69 stations indicate no conclusive evidence of climate change impacts, a third of the stations show a change in winter rainfall occurring around the turn of the century.

Item #d92jun83

"Recursive Forecasting, Smoothing and Seasonal Adjustment of Non-stationary Environmental Data," P.C. Young (Inst. Environ. Studies, Univ. Lancaster, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK), C.N. Ng et al., J. Forecasting, 10(1-2), 57-89, Jan. 1991. Presents a unified approach based on time-variable parameter versions of various well-known time series models, and demonstrates its utility on atmospheric CO₂ and sea surface temperature anomaly data.

Item #d92jun84

"Structure and Variability of the Modern Climate," G.V. Gruza, Soviet Meteor. Hydrol., No. 7, 9-13 (Eng. trans. of Meteor. i Gidrol., No. 7, 14-18, 1990). Presents new evaluations of characteristics of the Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature record for 1891-1985, based on recommendations of the WMO.