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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 5, NUMBER 5, MAY 1992

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: AGRICULTURE

Item #d92may9

"Implications of Changes in Climatic Averages and Variability on Food Production Opportunities in Ontario, Canada," M. Brklacich (Land Resour. Ctr., Agric. Canada, Ottawa, Ont. K1A 0C6, Can.), B. Smit, Clim. Change, 20(1), 1-21, 1992.

Explores implications of altered temperatures and precipitation at farm, regional and provincial levels. A doubling in CO₂ would contribute to extended frost-free seasons and possibly increase annual precipitation variability. Longer frost-free seasons during low precipitation could threaten the security of the province's food sup-ply.

Item #d92may10

"The Potential Effects of Climatic Change on Agricultural Insect Pests," J.H. Porter (Atmos. Impacts Res., Sch. Geog., Univ. Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK), M.L. Parry, T.R. Carter, Agric. For. Meteor., 57(1-3), 221-240, Dec. 1991.

Illustrates the effects of increased global temperatures on insect pests by estimating the response of the European corn borer to climatic changes projected by a general circulation model. Northward shifts in the potential distribution of the borer of up to 1220 km and growth of an additional generation are indicated. Priorities for further research are discussed.

Item #d92may11

Two items from Agric. Systems, 37(4), 1991:

"Climate Change, Winter Wheat Yield and Soil Erosion on the English South Downs," D.T. Favismortlock (Brighton Polytech., Mithras House, Lewes Rd., Brighton BN2 4AT, E. Sussex, UK), R. Evans et al., 415-433.

Uses an erosion-productivity model to evaluate direct CO₂ stimulation and related climatic impacts. Yield increases are predicted under the majority of climatic scenarios used, but they are unlikely to be realized in practice due to increased pest competition. Increased erosion is predicted for wetter scenarios.

"Impacts of Future Climatic Change on Hungarian Crop Production--An Application of Crop Growth Simulation Models," Z. Bacsi (Intl. Fertilizer Develop. Ctr., Div. Agroecon., POB 2040, Muscle Shoals AL 35662), P.K. Thornton, J.B. Dent, 435-450.

Describes a method for studying changes in wheat and maize production, which analyzes farm-level impacts and possible management adjustments, then identifies regional and national changes in agroclimatic potential and the effects of possible adjustments. The method is applied to a cereal-producing region of Hungary.

Item #d92may12

"Sensitivity of Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture in Wheat Fields to Changes in Climate and Direct Effects of Carbon Dioxide," I.S. Kuchment (Acad. Sci., Inst. Water Problems, 13-3 Sadovo Chernogriazskaya, Moscow 103064, Russia), Hydrol. Sci. J. (J. des. Sci. Hydrologiques), 36(6), 631-643, 1991. In English.

A physically-based model of moisture transfer in the soil-canopy-atmosphere system applied to data from wheat fields shows that estimates of evapotranspiration responses to warming must consider the direct physiological effects of enhanced CO₂. Under some circumstances, decreased evapotranspiration can be expected, instead of the increase predicted by several models which neglect the direct CO₂ effects.

Item #d92may13

"The Sensitivity of Soil Moisture Reserves to Precipitation Amount and Frequency under Current and Future Climates," J.A. Dyer (Resour. Environ. Sect., Agric. Canada, Ottawa, K1A 0C5, Can.), Clim. Bull., 25(2), 103-117, Aug. 1991.

Examination of relationships involving monthly total precipitation, precipitation frequency and soil moisture shows that a large amount of variation in soil moisture is due solely to changes in the frequency of days with precipitation.

Item #d92may14

"CO₂-Induced Climatic Changes and Irrigation-Water Requirements," R.G. Allen (Dept. Agric. Eng., Utah State Univ., Logan UT 84322), F.N. Gichuki, C. Rosenweig, J. Water Resour. Planning Mgmt., 117(2), 157-178, Mar.-Apr. 1991.

Changes in irrigation-water (IR) requirements for the U.S. Great Plains were evaluated using results of doubled CO₂ GCM experiments and a water balance-IR model. Increased IR requirements were predicted as a result of increased evaporation and changes in precipitation patterns, especially for alfalfa. Decreases or only modest increases were predicted for winter wheat and corn.