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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 5, NUMBER 10, OCTOBER 1992

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS: WATER RESOURCES

Item #d92oct28

"Application of Stochastic Simulation to Climatic-Change Studies," M.-K. Woo (Dept. Geog., McMaster Univ., Hamilton, Ont. L8S 4K1, Can.), Clim. Change, 20(4), 313-330, Apr. 1992.

Stochastic modeling can be used to predict the probabilities that events of various magnitudes will occur for different climatic change scenarios. Examples of the application of models for daily air temperature and daily precipitation include the derivation of snowfall and river-ice data using simulated temperature and precipitation.

Item #d92oct29

"Factors Controlling the Effects of Climate Change on River Flow Regimes in a Humid Temperature Environment," N.W. Arnell (Inst. Hydrol., Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, England), J. Hydrol., 132(1-4), 321-342, Mar. 1992.

Used a monthly water balance model to examine factors controlling effects on 15 catchments in the U.K. representing a range of climatic and geological conditions. Factors determining average annual runoff and changes in monthly runoff are evaluated for several climate change scenarios.

Item #d92oct30

"Effects of Climatic Change and Climatic Variability on the Thornthwaite Moisture Index in the Delaware River Basin," G.J. McCabe Jr. (U.S. Geol. Survey, 810 Bear Tavern Rd., West Trenton NJ 08628), D.M. Wolock, Clim. Change, 20(2), 143-153, Feb. 1992.

Temperature and precipitation estimates from three GCMs were used to study the response of the moisture index for steady-state doubled CO₂, and for a gradual change to doubled-CO₂ conditions. Altered temperature and precipitation will cause the Thornthwaite index to decrease, implying drier conditions in the Delaware River basin, but the change will be partly masked by year-to-year variability.

Item #d92oct31

"Simulation of Climate Change Impacts on Water Balances in the Central United States," S.A. Thompson (Dept. Geog., Millersville Univ., Millersville PA 17551), Phys. Geog., 13(1), 31-52, Jan.-Mar. 1992.

A stochastic weather generator model was forced to simulate a 2.5° C temperature increase and a 10% precipitation increase over a 50-year period, as input to a water balance model. Even under a scenario of increasing precipitation, summer soil moisture would decrease in a region ranging from semiarid western Kansas to humid eastern Missouri. Temperature and potential evapotranspiration are sensitive indicators of climatic change, while annual runoff is not useful.

Item #d92oct32

"Institutional Response to Climate Change: Water Provider Organizations in the Denver Metropolitan Region," S.L. Rhodes (NCAR, POB 3000, Boulder CO 80307), K.A. Miller, L.J. MacDonnell, Water Resources Res., 28(1), 11-18, Jan. 1992.

Assesses the potential responses of urban water suppliers to reduced water availability, by examining an analogous case of reduced supply to Denver after the U.S. EPA vetoed a proposed water storage project (Two Forks Dam). Useful lessons for climatic change can be drawn from this analysis of institutional responses.

Item #d92oct33

"Extreme Storm Rainfall and Climatic Change," P. Burlando (Dept. Hydraulic Eng., Politecnico di Milano, 32 Leonardo da Vinci, Milano I-20133, Italy), R. Rosso, Atmos. Res., 27(1-3), 169-189, Dec. 1991.

Proposes an approach for linking GCM climate scenarios to local changes in precipitation patterns, using a stochastic model based on the theory of point process. Gives a sensitivity analysis as well as examples of application to data.

Item #d92oct34

"Climatic Change, River Flow Extremes and Fluvial Erosion--Scenarios for England and Wales," M. Newson (Dept. Geog., Univ. Newcastle-upon-Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK), J. Lewin, Prog. Phys. Geog., 15(1), 1-17, 1991.

Synthesizes the work of fluvial geomorphologists to assess the relative influences of climatic factors and human influences on fluvial action under expected climatic changes. Discusses implications for river flood protection and erosion control policies.

Item #d92oct35

"Evaluating the Water Resource Impacts of Climatic Warming in Cold Alpine Regions by the Water Balance Model--Modeling the Urumqi River Basin," Z.M. Lai (Lanzhou Inst. Glaciol. & Geocryol., Lanzhou 730000, PRC), B.S. Ye, Sci. in China Ser. B, 34(11), 1362-1371, Nov. 1991.

Impacts on a basin in the Xinjiang region of China are evaluated for climate scenarios representing temperature increases of 2K and 4K and precipitation change ranging from -20% to +20%. Runoff changes depend mainly on precipitation changes in the glacier-free or less glaciated basins in cold alpine regions.

Item #d92oct36

Special Issue: "Landscape Ecological Impacts of Climatic Change on Fluvial Systems in Europe," Earth Surface Proc. & Landforms, 16(7), Nov. 1991. (Published by Wiley & Sons, Baffins Lane, Chichester, West Sussex PO19 1UD, UK; tel: 0243 779777). Contains nine papers from a conference on the topic (Dec. 1989, The Netherlands):

"Global Energy Balance and Regional Hydrology: A Burgundian Case Study," J. Gunn (Garrow & Assoc., 1921 Billabong Lane, Chapel Hill NC 27516), C.L. Crumley, 579-592.

"Climatic Effects on the Runoff Conditions in Hungary," B. Nováky (Res. Ctr. Water Resour. Devel. Vituki, H-1095 Kvassay Jenô út 1, Budapest, Hungary), 593-599.

"A Model for Heat and Water Balance Estimation and Its Application to Land Use and Climate Variation," J. Olejnik (Dept. Agrometeor., Agric. Acad. Poznan, Witosa 45, 60-667 Poznan, Poland), 601-617.

"Impact of a CO₂-Induced Climatic Change on River Flow Variability in Three Rivers in Belgium," D. Gellens (Royal Meteor. Inst. Belg., Ave. Circulaire, 3B-1180 Brussels, Belg.), 619-625.

"Sensitivity of the River Rhine Discharge to Environmental Change, A First Tentative Assessment," J.C.J. Kwadijk, Geographical Sci., Univ. Utrecht, POB 80.115, 3508 TC Utrecht, Neth.), 627-637.

"Landscape Ecological and Spatial Impacts of Climatic Change in Two Areas in the Netherlands," R.H.G. Jongman (Dept. Phys. Planning, Agric. Univ., Gen. Foulkesweg 13, 6703 BJ Wageningen, Neth.), 639-652.

"Summer and Winter Regimes of Runoff Generation and Soil Erosion on Cultivated Loess Soils (The Netherlands)," F.J.P.M. Kwaad (Landscape Environ. Res., Univ. Amsterdam, Nieuwe Prinsengracht 130, 1018 VZ Amsterdam, Neth.), 653-662.

"Assessment of the Sensitivity of the Landscape in a Sample Area in Hungary for Climatic Variability," A. Kerényi (Dept. Geog., Kossuth Univ., H-4010 Debrecen, POB 9, Hungary), P. Csorba, 663-673.

"The Influence of Sediment Supply on the Channel Morphology of Upland Streams: Howgill Fells, Northwest England," A.M. Harvey (Dept. Geog., Univ. Liverpool, POB 147, Liverpool L69 3BX, UK), 675-684.

Item #d92oct37

"Hydrological Response of a Medium-Sized Mountainous Catchment to Climate Changes," D. Panagoulia (Dept. Civil Eng., Natl. Tech. Univ. Athens, GR-15773 Athens, Greece), Hydrological Sci. J.--J. des Sci. Hydrologiques, 36(6), 525-547, 1991.

Snow accumulation and ablation and runoff from the Mesochora catchment in central Greece were simulated using the U.S. Weather Service snowmelt and soil moisture models. All climate change scenarios significantly decreased winter snow accumulation and runoff as well as spring and summer runoff. Changes in the monthly distribution exceeded those in the annual average, and have implications for future water resources design and management.

Item #d92oct38

"Potential Effects of Changed Climates on Heavy Rainfall Frequencies in the Midwest," S.A. Changnon (Illinois State Water Survey, 2204 Griffith Dr., Champaign IL 61820), F.A. Huff, Water Resour. Bull., 27(5), 753 ff, Oct. 1991.

Estimates of possible changes in the intensity or frequency of heavy rainfall events in the humid continental climate of the American Midwest were derived from spatial and temporal analogs. Spatial analogs indicated a 10%-15% increase in the frequency of rain events having recurrence intervals of 5-50 years; dry period analogs indicated 5%-15% decreases in the number of 2- to 10-year heavy rain events.

Item #d92oct39

"Possible Impacts of Climatic Warming Scenarios on Water Resources in the Saskatchewan River Sub-Basin, Canada," S.J. Cohen (Can. Clim. Ctr., Atmos. Environ. Serv., Downsview, Ont. M3H 5T4, Can.), Clim. Change, 19(3), 291-317, Oct. 1991.

A pilot study was undertaken to provide initial estimates of impacts, elucidate methodology problems and identify future research needs. Results based on scenarios from five GCMs indicate decreases in summer soil moisture and increases in irrigation demand, but no consensus on runoff or annual net basin supply.

Item #d92oct40

"Hydrological Effects of Changes in Levels of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide," D.M. Wolock (U.S. Geol. Survey, 810 Bear Tavern Rd., West Trenton NJ 08628), G.M. Hornberger, J. Forecasting, 10(1-2), 105-116, Jan. 1991.

In addition to the more direct effects of temperature and precipitation changes, climate change will affect hydrology since elevated CO₂ will alter evapotranspiration through control of natural stomatal resistance. Effects of all three factors were evaluated for a forested catchment in Virginia. Stochastic variability in temperature and precipitation would obscure runoff trends even if the trends in precipitation, temperature and stomatal resistance were significant.