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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 6, NUMBER 12, DECEMBER 1993

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: AGRICULTURE

Item #d93dec118

Special issues: MINK Study. Clim. Change, 24(1-2), June 1993, consists of six papers plus an introductory editorial by N.J. Rosenberg on a project supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, to develop methods for assessing the regional agricultural consequences of climate change. The study focused on Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas (MINK) in the central U.S. These papers draw primarily but not entirely on a set of DOE reports previously listed in Global Climate Change Digest. A special issue of Agric. For. Meteor. (59(1-2), Apr. 15, 1992) contains five papers discussing details of the project's approaches to calculating crop productivity and responses.

Item #d93dec119

"Potential Impacts of Shifts in Climate on the Crop Insurance Industry," E.R. Fosse (c/o Illinois State Water Surv., Champaign IL 61820), S.A. Changnon, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74(9), 1703-1708, Sep. 1993.

Insurance rates are based on historical data, and it will be difficult for the industry to react to changing storm frequencies or intensities. Industry adaptations may include declining coverage, reduced coverage per unit area, and lower yield guarantees. These acts would lead to more self-insurance by crop producers, which would involve more crop diversification and dispersion of crops over a greater area.

Item #d93dec120

"Effects of Changes in Temperature and CO₂ Concentration on Simulated Spring Wheat Yields in the Netherlands," S. Nonhebel (Dept. Theor. Production Ecol., Agric. Univ., POB 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, Neth.), Clim. Change, 24(4), 311-329, Aug. 1993.

A model simulation showed that a temperature rise would result in decreased yield due to a shortened growing period. Increased CO₂ would increase yield, and the two effects in combination would result in small yield increases in wetter years, and large yield increases in drier years.

Item #d93dec121

Comment and reply on the economic effects of climate change on world agriculture, ibid., 24(3), 273-280, July 1993.

Item #d93dec122

"Probable Effects of CO₂-Induced Climatic Warming on the Thermal Environment of Ponded Shallow Water," S. Ohta (Sch. Human Sci., Waseda Univ., 2-579-15 Mikajima, Tokorozawa, Saitama 359, Japan), Z. Uchijima et al., ibid., 23(1), 69-90, Jan. 1993.

A physical model of rice fields showed that water temperature under CO₂ doubling rose 2· to 4·C, which would significantly shift northward the isotherm for the dates for safe transplanting of rice seedlings.

Item #d93dec123

"Probability Analysis of Climate Change Impact on Potential Productivity of Agricultural Ecosystems," E.E. Zhukovskii, G.G. Belchenko, T.M. Brunova, Soviet Meteor. & Hydrol., 3, 70-79 (p. 92 Russian Ed.), 1992.

Bases the analysis on the comparison among frequency curves for yield resulting from specific meteorological conditions. The frequency curves are evaluated by the Monte Carlo method for different climatic scenarios.

Item #d93dec124

"Potential Impacts of CO₂-Induced Climate Change Using the GISS, GFDL and CCC Scenarios on Corn Yields in the Essex County Region of Ontario, Canada," A.A. Viau (Dépt. Sci. géodés., Univ. Laval, Ste.-Foy PQ G1K 7P4, Can.), C.M. Mitic, Clim. Bull., 26(2), 79-105, Aug. 1992.

Multivariate regression leads to estimates of a 6.3-14.4% decrease in corn yields as a result of water stress, indicating that irrigation systems will be more important.