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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 6, NUMBER 12, DECEMBER 1993

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: HYDROLOGY

Item #d93dec79

"Application of a Land Class Hydrological Model to Climatic Change," G.W. Kite (Nat. Hydrol. Res. Inst., 11 Innovation Blvd., Saskatoon SK S7N 3H5, Can.), Water Resour. Res., 29(7), 2377-2384, July 1993.

Developed a model in which parameters are based on land use, and verified it for a watershed in the Rocky Mountains of British Columbia. Estimated the changes in land use associated with a doubled CO₂ and reran the model incorporating the changed climate and changed land use.

Item #d93dec80

"Use of Output from High-Resolution Atmospheric Models in Landscape-Scale Hydrologic Models: An Assessment," S.W. Hostetler (USGS, 3215 Marine St., Boulder CO 80303), F. Giorgi, ibid., 29(6), 1685-1695, June 1993.

Used output from two year-round simulations by a regional climate model to drive a lake model and a streamflow model. Found that such coupling of models may be a useful approach to evaluate the effects of climate change on hydrologic systems.

Item #d93dec81

"Recent Hydroclimatic Fluctuations and Their Effects on Water Resources in Illinois," K. Smith (Dept. Environ. Sci., Univ. Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, UK), Clim. Change, 24(3), 249-269, July 1993.

Examines the impacts of observed climatic fluctuations on physical hydrology in order to match the spatial scale of the fluctuations to the scale of the hydrologic systems. Explores the extent to which changing climate may have created water resource problems and prompted managerial adjustments.

Item #d93dec82

"Characterizing the Distribution of Observed Precipitation and Runoff over the Continental United States," J. Dolph (ManTech Environ. Technol., U.S. EPA Res. Lab., 200 SW 35th St., Corvallis OR 97330), D. Marks, ibid., 22(2), 99-119, Oct. 1992.

Developed a geographic database of historical precipitation and runoff measurements, and used it in spatial analysis and in assessment of the utility and limitation of historical data. The incorporation of high elevation snow measurements into the precipitation record significantly improved the water balance estimates and enhanced the use of historical data in some areas.

Item #d93dec83

"Groundwater Fluxes in the Global Hydrologic Cycle: Past, Present and Future," I.S. Zektser (Dept. Geog., Univ. California, Santa Barbara CA 93106), H.A. Loaiciga, J. Hydrol., 144(1-4), 405-427, Apr. 1993.

Analyzes groundwater contributions to river runoff, direct sub-marine discharges to the ocean floor, and salt throughput to oceans. Discusses anthropogenic modifications over the last 300 years, and the likely role of potential global warming.

Item #d93dec84

"Repercussions of a CO₂ Doubling on the Water Balance: A Case Study in Switzerland," F. Bultot (Swiss Nat. Hydrol. & Geol. Surv., Bern, Switz.), D. Gellens et al., ibid., 137(1-4), 199-208, Aug. 15, 1992.

Investigated the impact on a Swiss catchment using a daily step conceptual hydrological model.

Item #d93dec85

"Long-Term Variations in Regional Rainfall in the South-West of Western Australia and the Difference between Average and High-Intensity Rainfalls," B. Yu (Dept. Biogeog. & Geomorphol., Australian Nat. Univ., Canberra ACT 2601, Australia), D.T. Neil, Intl. J. Climatol., 13(1), 77-88, Jan.-Feb. 1993.

Records for the region suggest that, in a CO₂-warmed world, high-intensity rainfall may occur more frequently, irrespective of local change to average rainfall.

Item #d93dec86

"Australian Runoff Scenarios from a Runoff Climate Model," M.P. Morassutti (Sch. Earth Sci., Macquarie Univ., N. Ryde NSW 2109, Australia), ibid., 12(8), 797-813, Dec. 1992.

Estimated changes in annual runoff for three regions under three scenarios of transient trace gas levels. Predicted that all regions would have significant increases in mean annual runoff under all scenarios, due to intense aridity and changes in precipitation and evaporation.

Item #d93dec87

"Simulated Changes in Daily Rainfall Intensity Due to the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect: Implications for Extreme Rainfall Events," H.B. Gordon (CSIRO, POB 1, Mordialloc Vic. 3195, Australia), P.H. Whetton et al., Clim. Dynamics, 8(2), 83-102, Dec. 1992.

A general circulation model predicts that, for CO₂ doubling, rainfall intensity and the frequency of heavy rainfall events will increase in most of the world, even though total rainfall may decrease. The findings have implications in terms of frequency and severity of floods. Discusses the uncertainties and potential of this type of model.

Item #d93dec88

"Sensitivity of Runoff to Climate Change: A Hortonian Approach," J.C.I. Dooge (Ctr. Water Resour. Res., Univ. Coll., Dublin, Ire.), Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 73(12), 2013-2024, Dec. 1992.

Reviews the late Robert Horton's approach, and suggests that his techniques give insight into the nature of this problem through a partial analysis of the phenomena involved.

Item #d93dec89

"Contemplating Old Clues to the Impact of Future Greenhouse Climates in South Africa," P.B. Beaumont (McGregor Museum, POB 316, Kimberley 8300, SA), G.H. Miller, J.C. Vogel, South African J. Sci., 88(9-10), 490-498, Sep.-Oct. 1992.

Evidence from archeological sites in the summer-rainfall region of the subcontinent suggests that increased and more seasonal rainfall may accompany warming during the next half century. These changes may cause severe biosphere stress and accelerating losses of biological diversity.

Item #d93dec90

"Sensitivity of Pacific Northwest Water Resources to Global Warming," D.P. Lettenmaier (Dept. Civil Eng. FX-10, Univ. Washington, Seattle WA 98195), K.L. Brettmann et al., Northwest Environ. J., 8(2), 265-283), 1992.

Developed models to identify water management conflicts that might arise in the region under a warming of 2· and 4·C. Found that water supply reliability would be degraded by an earlier spring runoff pattern, and that more efficient reservoir operation alone would not mitigate the problem.

Item #d93dec91

"Impacts of Climatic Change on River Flow Regimes in the U.K.," N.W. Arnell (Inst. Hydrol., Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, UK), J. Inst. Water & Environ. Mgmt., 6(4), 432-442, Aug. 1992.

Summarizes possible effects of warming on average annual runoff, and on seasonal variation in rainfall, evapotranspiration and river flow. Stresses the high degree of uncertainty in the predictions.

Item #d93dec92

"Effect of Rising Sea Level on Runoff and Groundwater Discharge to Coastal Ecosystems," W.K. Nuttle (Ocean Sci. Ctr., Memorial Univ. Newfoundland, St. John's Newfoundl., Can.), J.W. Portnoy, Estuarine, Coastal & Shelf Sci., 34, 203-212, 1992.

The link between sea level rise and runoff is dependent on the sensitivity of runoff to changes in the watertable. Demonstrates this link for a coastal watershed on Cape Cod, where a 10 cm rise in the watertable would increase surface runoff by 70% and decrease groundwater discharge by 20%.

Item #d93dec93

Two items from Nordic Hydrol., 23(3), 1992:

"Worldwide Testing of the Snowmelt Runoff Model with Applications for Predicting the Effects of Climate Change," A. Rango (USDA ARS, Bldg. 265, Beltsville MD 20705), 155-172. Tested the model for the evaluation of impacts of climate change on over 50 basins in different climatic regions. Initial results showed potentially serious problems involving water supply, flooding and drought.

"Stability of River Flow Regimes," I. Krasovskaia (Hydroconsult AB, Drottninggaten 4, S-75220 Uppsala, Swed.), L. Gottschalk, 137-154. Develops a classification for flow regimes (the seasonal distribution of flow and the time of occurrence of high and low flow) to aid in the formulation of environmental and economic policies.

Item #d93dec94

"Impacts of GISS-Modeled Climate Changes on Catchment Hydrology," D. Panagoulia (Dept. Civil Eng., Natl. Tech. Univ. Athens, GR-15773 Athens, Greece), Hydrological Sci. J.--J. des Sci. Hydrologiques, 37(2), 141-163, Apr. 1992.

All three scenarios of CO₂ doubling simulated for a mountainous catchment in Greece indicate decreased average snow accumulations, spring and summer runoff, and soil moisture, but increased winter runoff, soil moisture storage and spring evapotranspiration.

Item #d93dec95

"The Response of Fluvial Systems to Climate Change--An Example from the Central Great Plains," C.W. Martin (Dept. Geog., Kansas State Univ. Agric. & Appl. Sci., Manhattan KS 66506), Physical Geog., 13(2), 101-114, Apr.-June 1992.

A late Holocene alluvial chronology for a Nebraska river, and late Holocene alluvial and paleoclimatic records of the central Great Plains, illustrate the problems inherent in relating fluvial activity to climatic change. Further study is needed but is limited by the paucity of fluvial systems unaltered by human activity.