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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 6, NUMBER 1, JANUARY 1993

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
GENERAL INTEREST--POLICY AND SCIENCE

Item #d93jan1

"Strategies for Addressing Climate Change: Policy Perspectives from around the World," M.D. Levine (Energy Analysis Prog., Lawrence Berkeley Lab., Berkeley CA 94720), J.A. Sathaye et al., Energy, 17(12), 1121-1136, Dec. 1992.

Surveys attitudes and policy responses among nations, based in part on a series of papers commissioned by the Electric Power Research Institute. Since opinion is widespread that mitigation of climate change can conflict with economic goals, policies should be implemented that are good ideas independent of greenhouse gas considerations. What is feasible to accomplish depends on the changing attitudes of citizens of the world, and evaluations such as this one should be carried out routinely and made available to global policy makers. Suggests research on costs and on institutional issues.

Item #d93jan2

"An Optimal Transition Path for Controlling Greenhouse Gases," W.D. Nordhaus (Econ. Dept., Yale Univ., New Haven CT 06520), Science, 258(5080), 1315-1319, Nov. 20, 1992.

Demonstrates, using the DICE (dynamic integrated climate-economy) model, how the tools of optimal economic growth analysis can be used to evaluate the global economic costs and benefits of different environmental control strategies. Evaluation of five alternative policies suggests that a modest carbon tax would be an efficient approach to slow global warming and would entail lower overall costs than taking no action, while rigid approaches for stabilizing emissions or climate would impose significant net economic costs. The advantage of geoengineering over other policies is enormous, assuming the existence of environmentally benign geoengineering options.

Item #d93jan3

"Possibility of an Arctic Ozone Hole in a Doubled-CO₂ Climate," J. Austin (Meteor. Off., London Rd., Bracknell RG12 2SZ, UK), N. Butchart, K.P. Shine, Nature, 360(6401), 221-225, Nov. 19, 1992.

Results from a numerical model of the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere show that doubled CO₂ leads to the formation of an Arctic ozone hole comparable to that observed over Antarctica, because the expected cooling of the lower stratosphere increases the formation of polar stratospheric clouds. (Implications of the work are discussed by J.D. Mahlman on pp. 209-210.)

Item #d93jan4

Two items from Nature, 360(6404), Dec. 10, 1992:

"IPCC Strategies Unfair to the South," J.K. Parikh (Gandhi Inst. Development Res., Goregaon (East), Bombay 400 065, India), 507-508.

Assumptions concerning future growth rates of different regions for the IPCC reference scenario should have considered who has responsibility for reducing emissions, who needs more energy for development, and who has reached a stage where emission growth rates are already reduced. Suggestions are made for reducing such unfairness to developing countries in post-Rio activities.

"Deriving Global Climate Sensitivity from Palaeoclimate Reconstructions," M.I. Hoffert (Dept. Appl. Sci., New York Univ., New York NY 10003), C. Covey, 573-576.

Uncertainties in climate model estimates of the expected change in surface temperature due to a doubling of CO₂ range from 1.5· to 4.5·C, largely because of uncertainties in how the models handle cloud processes. This gives an alternative estimate based on paleoclimatic analysis of 2.3· ± 0.9·C, consistent with model results and inferences from other work. Further analysis of the geological record may lead to more precise estimates of climate sensitivity. (This paper is discussed by E.J. Barron on p. 533.)

Item #d93jan5

"The Use of Iron and Other Trace-Element Fertilizers in Mitigating Global Warming," J.R. Benemann (1212 Kelley Ct., Pinole CA 94564), J. Plant Nutrition, 15(10), 2277-2313, 1992.

Reviews approaches to increasing CO₂ sequestration. Since long-term studies are needed on ocean fertilization with iron, this is not currently an option for mitigation. However, forest fertilization with trace elements and even major nutrients could be an affordable and near-term method for reducing future global warming.

Item #d93jan6

"The Heard Island Feasibility Test," A. Baggeroer (Dept. Ocean Eng., Mass. Inst. Technol., Cambridge MA 02139), W. Munk, Physics Today, 22-30, Sep. 1992.

Presents results of a field experiment which demonstrated that coded underwater acoustic signals can be received world-wide and serve as a method for measuring global ocean warming. Such measurements could also help improve climate models. Discusses future experiments and establishment of a world-wide acoustic network.