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Published July 1988 through June 1999
FROM VOLUME 6, NUMBER 6, JUNE 1993
SPECIAL ISSUE: POLICY MODELING FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
21(3), Mar. 1993 (Pergamon Press) contains the following 12 papers.
Single issues available from Dawson & Sons Ltd., Cannon House, Folkestone,
Kent CT19 5EE, UK (tel: 0303-850101; fax: 0303-850440).
"Policy Modelling for Climate Change: The Missing Models," M.
Grubb (Royal Inst. of Intl. Affairs, 10 St. James's Square, London SW1 4LE, UK),
203-208. At the present stage of modeling, expert judgement is a better guide to
policy than any particular model result, but models and related sensitivity
studies are already an important source of understanding and are rapidly
"A Model Framework for Integrated Studies of the Climate Problem,"
H. Dowlatabadi (Dept. Engin., Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh PA 15213), M.G.
Morgan, 209-221. Describes a computer model framework suitable for accommodating
various alternative results and submodels, and applies it, together with expert
judgement, to setting research priorities.
"CO2 Emissions Control: Comparing Policy Instruments," S.C. Peck
Elec. Power Res. Inst., 3412 Hillview Ave., Palo Alto CA 94303), T.J. Teisberg,
222-230. Use of a global model shows that the relative merits of three
alternative policy instruments--period-specific emission limits, period-specific
taxes, and a cumulative emissions limit--depend on assumptions regarding how
well we know costs and benefits.
"World Energy to 2050: Outline Scenarios for Energy and Electricity,"
R.J. Eden (Cavendish Lab., Cambridge Univ., Cambridge CB3 0HE, UK), 231-237. Of
the two scenarios explored, the one with lower environmental impact involves a
targeted efficiency future in which per capita energy use in the industrialized
countries is halved by the year 2050, while in the developing countries it is
"Structural Comparison of the Models in EMF 12," R. Beaver
(Strategic Decisions Group, 2440 Sand Hill Rd., Menlo Pk. CA 94025), 238-248.
Analyzes the structure of the 14 energy and economic models represented in the
recently completed Stanford University Energy Modeling Forum study, Economic
Impacts of Policies to Reduce Energy-Sector Carbon Dioxide Emissions.
Focuses on the representation of capital stock dynamics and of market
penetration of carbon-free energy sources.
"Exploring the Gap: Top-Down Versus Bottom-Up Analyses of the Cost of
Mitigating Global Warming," D. Wilson (Energy Sys. Studies, Lund Univ.,
Gerdagatan 13, S-223 62 Lund, Sweden), J. Swisher, 249-263. Analyzes the
differences between the two types of models, which were conceived and designed
through different disciplines for different purposes, and which lead to
"Using Scenarios to Explore Future Energy Demand in Industrialized
Countries," L. Schipper (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., Berkeley CA 94720), S.
Meyers, 264-275. With a mixture of pricing and other policies, OECD primary
energy use in 2010 could be 20-25% less than currently seems likely if fairly
determined efforts are made. It would be very challenging but not impossible to
increase that reduction to 40-45%.
"An Analytical Model to Compare Energy-Efficiency Indices and CO2
Emissions in Developed and Developing Countries," L. Pinguelli Rosa
(COPPE/Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Centro de Tecnologia--Bloco C,
21949-900 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), M. Tiomno Tolmasquim, 276-283. Conventional
definitions of efficiency and energy intensity, which are based on the
technological and economic framework of developed countries, can mask the
situation in developing countries. Points out how deregulation and free market
international forces are pushing Brazil towards increased use of fossil fuels.
"The Cost of Reducing CO2 Emissions: A Comparison of the German and UK
Power Sectors," M.B. Morrison (Caminus Energy Ltd., Caminus Hse., Castle
Pk., Cambridge CB3 0RA, UK), P. ten Brink, 284-295. This economic comparison
determines the value of cooperation in reaching a 20% CO2 reduction target.
"A UK Carbon/Energy Tax: The Macroeconomic Effects," T. Barker
(Dept. Appl. Econ., Univ. Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 9DE, UK), S. Baylis, P.
Madsen, 296-308. Presents an extensive analysis made using a large-scale
energy-environment-economy model. The effects on the energy intensive industries
are expected to be small in all the scenarios examined, but 14% of tax revenues
are lost if the industries are exempt.
"Modelling Long-Run Scenarios: Methodology Lessons from a Prospective
Study on a Low CO2 Intensive Country," J.-C. Hourcade (Ecole des Hautes
Etudes en Sci. Sociales, 1 rue du 11 Nov. 92120, Montrouge, France), 309-326.
Draws generally applicable conclusions from a long-term study of CO2 emissions
in France, and discusses new research priorities. Proposes a more encompassing
definition of "no regrets" policy.
"Policy Analysis of the Greenhouse Effect: An Application of the PAGE
Model," C. Hope (Judge Inst. Mgmt. Studies, Univ. Cambridge, Cambridge CB2
1RX, UK), J. Anderson, P. Wenman, 327-338. Model results confirm that it is
difficult to overcome the problem of global warming by taking preventive action
alone; the argument for introducing an aggressive adaptive policy is very
strong. Sources of uncertainty have a great influence on the costs and impacts
of the combined strategy.
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