February 28, 2007
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FROM VOLUME 6, NUMBER 5, MAY 1993
SEA LEVEL IMPACTS: ECOSYSTEMS AND COASTAL MORPHOLOGY
"Numerical Simulation of Vertical Marsh Growth and
Adjustment to Accelerated Sea Level Rise, North Norfolk,
UK," J.R. French (Dept. Geog., Univ. Coll. London, London
WC1H 0AP, UK), Earth Surface Proc. & Landforms, 18(1),
63-81, Feb. 1993.
Simulations with a simple one-dimensional mass balance model
show that only the most dramatic scenarios of mean sea level rise
through the next century result in ecological
"drowning" and reversion to tidal flat. Currently
favored scenarios give rise to sedimentary deficits that are
clearly sustainable in the short term.
"Vegetation Change on a Northeast Tidal Marsh--Interaction
of Sea Level Rise and Marsh Accretion," R.S. Warren (Dept.
Bot., Connecticut Coll., New London CT 06320), W.A. Niering, Ecology, 74(1),
96-103, Jan. 1993.
Examines vegetation changes in a Long Island Sound marsh over
four decades, which may be related to documented increased rates
of relative sea level rise, and may serve as a model for
potential future effects on New England tidal marshes.
"Accretion Rates of Low Intertidal Salt Marshes in the
Pacific Northwest," R.M. Thom (Battelle Marine Sci. Lab.,
439 W. Sequim Bay Rd., Sequim WA 98382), Wetlands, 12(3),
147-156, Dec. 1992.
Measurements in several locations suggest that the scenarios
of moderate and high rise-rate through the year 2050 would
threaten the existence of salt marshes in the region in the
absence of increased sediment supply, although more data is
needed to refine predictions.
"Application of Geoprocessing and Simulation Modeling to
Estimate Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the Northeast Coast of
Florida," J.K. Lee (Sch. Public Affairs, Indiana Univ.,
Bloomington IN 47405), R.A. Park, P.W. Mausel, Photogrammetric
Eng. & Remote Sensing, 58(11), 1579-1586, Nov.
Results indicate that sea level rise of scenarios of 0.5 m,
1.0 m and 1.25 m would result in wetland losses of 6.5%, 31.9%
and 40.0%, respectively.
Geohydrologic Continuum Theory for the Spatial and Temporal
Evolution of Marsh-Estuarine Ecosystems," R. Dame (Coastal
Carolina Coll., Conway SC 29526), D. Childers, E. Koepfler, Neth.
J. Sea Res., 30, 63-72, Dec. 1992.
Presents a new holistic theory to explain the spatial and
temporal behavior of marsh-estuarine ecosystems along the
marine-estuarine-freshwater gradient in response to sea level
rise, using ecosystem development theory and the river continuum
concept as starting points.
"Predictive Estimates of Coastal Evolution as a Result of
Possible Fast Sea Level Rise During Global Climatic
Warming," V.B. Belyaev (Lomonosov State Univ., Moscow
117234, Russia), P.A. Kaplin et al., Okeanologiya, 32(4),
742-751, Jul.-Aug. 1992. In Russian.
Presents a preliminary map of coastal evolution for the former
Soviet Union under a one-meter sea level rise, with natural
coastal "risk zones" delineated.
"Shoreface Translation Model: Computer Simulation of Coastal
Sand Body Response to Sea Level Rise," P.J. Cowell (Dept.
Geog., Univ. Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia), P.S. Roy, R.A. Jones, Mathematics
& Computers in Simulation, 33(5-6), 603-608, Apr.
A model based on the principles of sand mass conservation and
geometric rules for shoreface and barrier morphology is
illustrated with an assessment of coastal erosion risks in the
face of sea level rise from global warming, and an example
involving mineral exploration on the continental shelf.
"Effect of Rising Sea Level on Runoff and Groundwater
Discharge to Coastal Ecosystems," W.K. Nuttle (23 Lakeview
Terr., Ottawa ON K1S 3H3, Can.), J.W. Portnoy, Estuarine,
Coastal & Shelf Sci., 34(2), 203-212, Feb. 1992.
Demonstrates that the link between sea level rise and runoff
is critically dependent on the sensitivity of surface runoff to
changes in the elevation of the water table, using an example
from Cape Cod (Massachusetts). Effects on near-shore ecosystems
include changes in nutrient fluxes and in the salinity of the
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