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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 6, NUMBER 9, SEPTEMBER 1993

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
CLIMATE PROJECTIONS

Item #d93sep16

Two items from Nature, 364(6434), July 15, 1993 (see Research News):

"The Oceans and Global Warming," A.J. Weaver (Sch. Ocean Sci., Univ. Victoria, POB 1700, Victoria BC V8W 2Y2, Can.), 192-193. Discusses results of the following paper, emphasizing the importance of oceans in climate change and the large uncertainties surrounding the atmosphere's role.

"Century-Scale Effects of Increased Atmospheric CO₂ on the Ocean-Atmosphere System," S. Manabe (GFDL, Princeton Univ., POB 308, Princeton NJ 08542), R.J. Stouffer, 215-218. Used a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model to study the evolution of the world's climate over the next 500 years, with either a doubling or quadrupling of CO₂ concentrations. Global surface mean air temperature increases by about 3.5·C and 7·C, respectively. In the latter case, the ocean settles into a new stable state in which the thermohaline circulation has ceased, with profound impacts on the carbon cycle and biogeochemistry of the coupled system.

Item #d93sep17

"Model Simulations of the Competing Climatic Effects of SO2 and CO₂," Y.J. Kaufman (NASA-Goddard, Greenbelt MD 20771), M.-D. Chou, J. Clim., 6(7), 1241-1252, July 1993.

A detailed, 2-D model representation of the impacts of SO2 emissions on climate through enhanced cloud formation indicates that this cooling mechanism can currently counteract 50% of CO₂ greenhouse warming. Projections are made into the next century using IPCC emission scenarios. The complete removal of SO2 from emissions (such as to control acid rain) leads to a warming surge of 0.4·C in the following few years.

Item #d93sep18

"Accuracy of Assessments of Future Climate Conditions," M.I. Budyko (State Hydrol. Inst.), Soviet Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 5, 1-6, 1992. (English translation; Allerton Press.)

Discusses methods for calculating the accuracy of assessments of expected climate changes, especially by regions, a topic generally overlooked by non-Russian researchers. Presents data demonstrating the reliability of climate projections based on analogs to warm epochs of the past.