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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 6, NUMBER 9, SEPTEMBER 1993

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
TEMPERATURE TRENDS

Item #d93sep19

"Defining and Estimating Global Mean Temperature Anomalies," R.F. Gunst (Dept. Statistical Sci., Southern Methodist Univ., Dallas TX 75275), S. Basu, R. Brunell, J. Clim., 6(7), 1368-1374, July 1993.

Defines global mean temperature and investigates the adequacy of using weighted average anomalies to estimate a global mean anomaly, with special emphasis on gridding and data reuse.

Item #d93sep20

"Global Surface Temperatures and the Atmospheric Electrical Circuit," C. Price (NASA Goddard Inst. Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York NY 10025), Geophys. Res. Lett., 20(13), 1363-1366, July 9, 1993.

Presents evidence that global thunderstorm activity is nonlinearly related to diurnal, seasonal and interannual temperature variations, and that variations of ionospheric potential measured at a single location may indicate global surface temperature fluctuations.

Item #d93sep21

Two items from J. Clim., 6(6), June 1993:

"The Effects of Imperfect Spatial and Temporal Sampling on Estimates of the Global Mean Temperature: Experiments with Model Data," R.A. Madden (NCAR, POB 3000, Boulder CO 80307), D.J. Shea et al., 1057-1066. Shows that information on the spatial sampling problem derived from model output can also be determined using a simple statistical sampling equation and a simple Monte Carlo experiment. The latter techniques could be applied to observed global-mean surface temperatures.

"Precision Lower Stratospheric Temperature Monitoring with the MSU: Technique, Validation, and Results 1979-1991," R.W. Spencer (Code ES43, Marshall Space Flight Ctr., Huntsville AL 35812), J.R. Christy, 1194-1204. Microwave Sounding Unit data from the TIROS-N series of satellites are intercalibrated to provide a continuous global record over the period. Comparison with radiosonde data shows that the sondes are 0.21·C cooler; causes of the discrepancy are discussed.

Item #d93sep22

"Spatial Correlations of Interdecadal Variation in Global Surface Temperatures," M.E. Mann (Dept. Geol., Yale Univ., POB 6666, New Haven CT 06511), J. Park, Geophys. Res. Lett., 20(11), 1055-1058, June 7, 1993.

Using multi-taper coherence estimates from 140-year records, finds that correlations between hemispheres are significant at >95% confidence for most of the frequency band between 0.06 and 0.24 cycles per year. Other relationships are reported.

Item #d93sep23

"An Evaluation of Climate Change in Phoenix Using an Automatic Synoptic Climatological Approach," S. Cheng (Dept. Geog., Univ. Delaware, Newark DE 19716), L.S. Kalkstein, World Resour. Rev., 5(2), 180-189, June 1993.

Uses a synoptic climatological categorization based on principal components analysis and clustering analysis to examine trends over the past 40 years. Mean temperatures within the four air mass groups have increased 0.9-3.0·C; these changes are closely related to growth in the Phoenix area over the period.

Item #d93sep24

"A 3620-Year Temperature Record from Fitzroya cupressoides Tree Rings in Southern South America," A. Lara, R. Villalba, Science, 260(5111), 1104-1106, May 21, 1993. (See Global Climate Change Digest, p. 87, June 1993).

Item #d93sep25

"Southwest Pacific Temperatures: Diurnal and Seasonal Trends," M.J. Salinger (Nat. Inst. Atmos. Res., POB 3047, Wellington, N.Z.), J. Hay et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., 20(10), 935-938, May 21, 1993.

Temperature trends in the region differ from those documented for Northern Hemisphere land areas, where warming has occurred mainly through increases in minimum temperatures. Results suggest that sulfate aerosol effects may be less important in the Southern Hemisphere.

Item #d93sep26

"Recent Changes in the North American Arctic Boundary Layer in Winter," R.S. Bradley (Dept. Geol., Univ. Massachusetts, Amherst MA 01003), F.T. Keimig, H.F. Diaz, J. Geophys. Res., 98(D5), 8851-8858, May 20, 1993.

Radiosonde data show a systematic reduction in midwinter surface-based inversion depths over the past few decades, along with a rise in surface temperature. The changes are significant for studies of Arctic haze.

Item #d93sep27

"Global Warming and the Problem of Testing for Trend in Time Series Data," W.A. Woodward (Dept. Statistical Sci., Southern Methodist Univ., Dallas TX 75275), H.L. Gray, J. Clim., 6(5), 953-962, May 1993.

Provides evidence from autoregressive moving average models to show that tests for trend of the form Yt = a + bt + Et, often applied to global warming, should be used with caution to predict future behavior.

Item #d93sep28

"The Global Greenhouse and Washington, D.C., Weather," B.R. Doe (USGS, Reston, Va.), Eos, 227-228, May 18, 1993.

Considers the preferential setting of records for daily high temperature over those for low temperature as an indication of the greenhouse effect.

Item #d93sep29

"Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Circulation Anomalies and Recent January Land Surface Temperature Trends," M.A. Palecki (Dept. Geog., Univ. Nebraska, Lincoln NE 68588), D.J. Leathers, Geophys. Res. Lett., 20(9), 819-822, May 5, 1993.

Demonstrates that long-term January temperature trends are strongly related to decadal-scale variations in extratropical mid-tropospheric circulation modes.

Item #d93sep30

"Change in Global Temperature: A Statistical Analysis," G.R. Richards (Nat. Assoc. Manufacturers, 1331 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, S. 1500-N, Washington DC 20004), J. Clim., 6(3), 546-559, Mar. 1993.

Investigates several issues using statistical techniques that impose minimal restrictions on the data. Finds, among other things, that the global temperature increase since the last century is systematic (not a result of random fluctuations). Multivariate tests for causality show that atmospheric CO₂ is a significant forcing factor.

Item #d93sep31

"Upper-Air Temperature Trends over the Globe, 1958-1989," A.H. Oort (GFDL, Princeton Univ., POB 308, Princeton NJ 08542), H. Liu, ibid., 6(2), 292-307, Feb. 1993.

Evaluates a time series composed of soundings from the global radiosonde network (700-800 stations), and compares it to results derived earlier from a subset of those stations and to satellite microwave sounder data.

Item #d93sep32

"Are There Any Changes in the Warming Influence of Moscow?" L.V. Klimenko, Soviet Meteor. Hydrol., No. 1, 77-78, 1992. (English translation; Allerton Press.) Analysis of air temperature data in and around Moscow shows that the warming influence of Moscow stopped increasing after the 1960s. Discusses previously-reported temperature analyses in light of this result.

Item #d93sep33

"Discontinuous Climate Changes in Japan after 1900," T. Yonetani (Nat. Res. Inst. Earth Sci., Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305, Japan), J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 70(6), 1125-1136, Dec. 1992.

Reports analyses of temperature and sea-level pressure using the Lepage test, which reveals several discontinuous changes since 1900.