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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 8, NUMBER 4, APRIL 1995

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
TREND ANALYSIS

Item #d95apr82

"Influence of Lunar Phase on Daily Global Temperatures," R.C. Balling Jr. (Off. Climatol., Arizona State Univ., Tempe AZ 85287), R.S. Cerveny, Science, 267(5203), 1481-1482, Mar. 10, 1995.

Lunar influence is a potential forcing mechanism on short-term global temperatures. Results confirm the accuracy of global temperature measurements by satellite.

Item #d95apr83

Three items from J. Clim., 8(3), Mar. 1995:

"Detection of Forced Climate Signals. Part I: Filter Theory," G.R. North (Coll. Geosci. & Maritime Stud., Texas A&M Univ., Coll. Sta. TX 77843), K.-Y. Kim et al., 401-408. Discusses the construction of a linear smoothing filter for estimating the forced part of a change in a climatological field such as surface temperature. The filter suppresses the natural variability or "noise" relative to the forced part or "signal" to the maximum extent possible. Gives practical examples.

"...Part II. Simulation Results," G.R. North (addr. immed. above), K.-Y. Kim, 409-417. Tests the procedures from Part I to learn which factors deserve the most attention and which parts of the procedure are most sensitive to assumptions.

"Large-Scale Atmospheric Forcing of Recent Trends Toward Early Snowmelt Runoff in California," M.D. Dettinger (USGS, 5735 Kearny Villa Rd., Suite O, San Diego CA 92123), D.R. Cayan, 606-623. Since the late 1940s, snow melt has come increasingly early in northern and central California due to a long-term fluctuation in winter circulation over the North Pacific Ocean and North America that is not easily distinguished from natural variability. Winter wind fields have moved southward over the central North Pacific and northward over the West Coast. These shifts are associated with concurrent shifts in West Coast air temperatures and North Pacific sea surface temperatures.

Item #d95apr84

"Long-Term Monitoring of Carbon and Oxygen Isotope Ratios of Stratospheric CO₂ over Japan," T. Gamo (Ocean Res. Inst., Univ. Tokyo, 1-15-1, Minamidai, Nakano, Tokyo 164, Japan), M. Tsutsumi et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., 22(4), 397-400, Feb. 15, 1995.

Presents the first temporal d13C and d18O records between 1985 and 1991. Stratospheric d13C is gradually decreasing at a rate of -0.03% per year due to anthropogenic effects.

Item #d95apr85

Two items from ibid., 22(3), Feb. 1, 1995:

"Decline of Hexachlorocyclohexane in the Arctic Atmosphere and Reversal of Air-Sea Gas Exchange," T.F. Bidleman (Atmos. Environ. Serv., 4905 Dufferin St., Downsview ON M3H 5T4, Can.), L.M. Jantunen et al., 219-222. Measurements for 1979-1993 indicate that atmospheric concentrations of a-HCH have declined significantly. The decline has reversed the net direction of air-sea gas exchange to the point where some northern waters are now sources of the pesticide instead of sinks.

"Analysis of German Climatic Variations During the Period of Instrumental Record," R.C. Balling Jr. (Off. Climatol., Arizona State Univ., Tempe AZ 85287), 223-226. In the past 140 years, Germany's mean annual temperature has warmed by 0.66·C. However, in the most recent 80 years, Germany has shown no statistically significant warming. The diurnal temperature range has declined slightly and has a strong negative correlation with precipitation over the period 1950-1989.

Item #d95apr86

"Interdecadal Changes in El Niño Onset in the Last Four Decades," B. Wang (Dept. Meteor., Univ. Hawaii, 2525 Correa Rd., HIG 331, Honolulu HI 96822), J. Clim., 8(2), 267-285, Feb. 1995.

The characteristics of the onset of Pacific basin-wide warming have changed since the late 1970s due to a change in the background state on which El Niño evolves.

Item #d95apr87

"Changes in Oceanic and Terrestrial Carbon Uptake Since 1982," R.J. Francey (CSIRO, Priv. Bag 1, Mordialloc 3195, Australia), P.P. Tans et al., Nature, 373(6512), 326-330, Jan. 26, 1995.

Presents measurements of d13C for Northern and Southern Hemispheres over the past decade. Finds that the large and continuing decrease in CO₂ growth starting in 1988 involves increases in both terrestrial and oceanic uptake, the latter persisting through 1992.

Item #d95apr88

Three items from Intl. J. Climatol., 15(1), Jan. 1995:

"Trends in Wind and Sea-Level Pressure in the Tropical Pacific Ocean for the Period 1950-1979," M. Inoue (Coastal Stud. Inst., Louisiana State Univ., Baton Rouge LA 70803), G.R. Bigg, 35-52. Examines the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmospheric Data Set (COADS) sea-level pressure observations to check for dynamical consistency between observed trends in wind-speed components and trends in sea-level pressure pattern. Results suggest that the qualitative nature of observed trends in the trade winds in the Pacific since 1950 is real.

"Recent Frost Date Trends in the North-Eastern USA," E.J. Cooter (ARL, NOAA, Res. Triangle Pk. NC 27711), S.K. Leduc, 65-75. On average for New England, there is a significant linear trend indicating earlier initiations of frost-free conditions from 1961 to 1990.

"Temperature Variations in a Tropical-Subtropical Environment: Queensland, Australia, 1910-1987," J.M. Lough (Australian Inst. Marine Sci., PMB 3, Townsville MC, Queensland 4810, Australia), 77-95. Minimum daily temperatures have increased significantly and the daily temperature range has decreased significantly in both summer and winter. The trends, which are not unprecedented, cannot be attributed to urban warming.

Item #d95apr89

Three items from J. Geophys. Res., 99(D12), Dec. 20, 1994:

"Trends in the Vertical Distribution of Ozone: An Analysis of Ozonesonde Data," J.A. Logan (Dept. Earth & Planetary Sci., Harvard Univ., Cambridge MA 02138), 25,553-25,585. Presents an analysis of trends since 1970 and discusses the quality of the data and inconsistencies among data records.

"Global-Scale Modes of Surface Temperature Variability on Interannual to Century Timescales," M.E. Mann (Dept. Geol. & Geophys., POB 208109, Yale Univ., New Haven CT 06520), J. Park, 25,819-25,833. Analysis suggests a recent transition to a regime of higher ENSO frequency. An interdecadal mode in the 15-18 years period range appears to represent long-term ENSO variability. This mode has a sizeable projection onto global average temperature, and accounts for much of the anomalous global warmth of the 1980s.

"Summer Temperatures Across Northern North America: Regional Reconstructions from 1760 Using Tree-Ring Densities," K.R. Briffa (Sch. Environ. Sci., Univ. E. Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK), P.D. Jones, F.H. Schweingruber, 25,835-25,844. Reconstructions represent an extension of the mean climate history of over 100 years for three regions. The dates of the extreme cold summers in each series emphasize the strong volcanic influence on extreme high-latitude temperatures. The reconstructions also highlight the large regional differences in the magnitude of this influence.

Item #d95apr90

"Recent Decreasing Trend of Solar Radiation and Its Effect on Summer Monsoon Rainfall of Eastern China," X. Qun (Jiangsu Meteor. Inst., Bei-Ji-Guo, No. 2, Nanjing 210008, China), World Resour. Rev., 6(4), 535-544, Dec. 1994.

The downward trends of S and Q for 1959-1988 are

-20.9% and -12.7% respectively. They are positively correlated with the northward extent of the monsoon belt in eastern China during summer, which has resulted in drought in north China and floods in the Yangtze Valley for 14 recent summers.

Item #d95apr91

"Satellite Detection of Increased Cyanobacteria Blooms in the Baltic Sea: Natural Fluctuation or Ecosystem Change?" M. Kahru (Scripps Inst. Oceanog., La Jolla CA 92093), U. Horstmann, O. Rud, Ambio, 23(8), 469-472, Dec. 1994.

Satellite data for 1982-1993 shows that the total area covered by the blooms increased in the 1990s, reaching 62,000 km in 1992, indicating significant changes in the Baltic environment.

Item #d95apr92

"The Effect of Overgrazing on Historical Temperature Trends," H.A. Nasrallah, R.C. Balling Jr. (Off. Climatol., Arizona State Univ., Tempe AZ 85287), Agric. & For. Meteor, 71(3-4), 425-430, Nov. 1994.

Examination of temperature records for 1901-1990 for a latitudinal band extending from 10·N to 50·N, and of a UNEP map of areas affected by overgrazing, shows that overgrazed areas have warmed compared to nonimpacted land. While the temperature increase may be important locally and regionally, the impact of overgrazing probably accounts for less than 1% of global warming for the time period.

Item #d95apr93

Three related items in Science, 266(5185), Oct. 28, 1994 (see Global Climate Change Digest, Feb. 1994):

"Did the Tropical Pacific Drive the World's Warming?"

"Simulations of Atmospheric Variability Induced by Sea Surface Temperatures and Implications for Global Warming."

"Causes of Decadal Climate Variability over the North Pacific and North America."

Item #d95apr94

"Pattern of Annual Snow Accumulation Along a West Greenland Flow Line: No Significant Change Observed During Recent Decades," M. Anklin (Phys. Inst., Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switz.), B. Stauffer et al., Tellus, 46B(4), 294-303, Sep. 1994.

Shallow drillings and pit studies at ten locations showed no change in accumulation rates for the last 40 years, and no significant evidence for a pronounced increase in the Greenland surface mass balance as suggested by satellite altimetry.

Specialized Papers

Item #d95apr95

Comment and reply on "A Long Term Decrease in Arctic Haze at Barrow, Alaska," Geophys. Res. Lett., 22(6), 739-742, Mar. 15, 1995.

Item #d95apr96

"Optimal Averaging for the Determination of Global Mean Temperature: Experiments with Model Data," R.O. Weber (Würenlingen & Villigen, CH-5232 Villigen PSI, Switz.), R.A. Madden, J. Clim., 8(3), 418-430, Mar. 1995.

Item #d95apr97

"Interpolation of Missing Data Using Nonlinear and Chaotic System Analysis," R.E. Amritkar (Dept. Phys., Univ. Poona, Ganeshkhind, Pune 411007, India), P.P. Kumar, J. Geophys. Res., 100(D2), 3149-3154, Feb. 20, 1995.

Item #d95apr98

"Taking Serial Correlation into Account in Tests of the Mean," F.W. Zwiers (Atmos. Environ. Serv., Univ. Victoria, POB 1700, MS 3339, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Can.), H. von Storch, J. Clim., 8(2), 336-351, Feb. 1995.

Item #d95apr99

"Climate Variability and Change Within the Discharge Time Series: A Statistical Approach," H.T. Mitosek (Inst. Geophys., Polish Acad. Sci., ul. Ksiecia Janusza 64, 01-452 Warsaw, Poland), Clim. Change, 29(1), 101-116, Jan. 1995.

Item #d95apr100

"Linear Least Squares Method for Time Series Analysis with an Application to a Methane Time Series," M.A.K. Khalil (Global Change Res. Ctr., Oregon Graduate Inst., 20000 NW Walker Rd., Beaverton OR 97006), F.P. Moraes, J. Air & Waste Mgmt. Assoc., 45(1), 62-63, Jan. 1995.