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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 8, NUMBER 4, APRIL 1995

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
OF GENERAL INTEREST: TREND ANALYSIS

Item #d95apr19

"Increase in Lower Stratospheric Water Vapour at a Mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere Site from 1981 to 1994," S.J. Oltmans (CMDL, NOAA, 325 Broadway, Boulder CO 80303), D.J. Hofmann, Nature, 374(6518), 146-149, Mar. 9, 1995.

Measurements show a significant increase in water-vapor concentration in the lower stratosphere over the period, larger than might be expected from the stratospheric oxidation of increasing concentrations of atmospheric methane. The increase may be linked to other climate variations, such as the observed global temperature rise in recent decades.

Item #d95apr20

"Climatic Warming and the Decline of Zooplankton in the California Current," D. Roemmich (Marine Life Group, Scripps Inst. Oceanog., La Jolla CA 92093), J. McGowan, Science, 267(5202), 1324-1326, Mar. 3, 1995.

Since 1951, the biomass of macrozooplankton in waters off southern California has decreased by 80%. The surface layer of water has warmed over the same period, by more than 1.5·C in some places, causing increased stratification and less upwelling of inorganic nutrients for new biological production. The cause of the warming is unclear, but the findings show that if the global temperature rises 1-2·C in the next 40 years and if stratification increases globally, the biological consequences could be devastating.

Item #d95apr21

"Tropospheric Budget of Reactive Chlorine," T.E. Graedel (AT&T Bell Labs., Murray Hill NJ 07974), W.C. Keene, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 9(1), 47-77, Mar. 1995.

Reactive chlorine in the lower atmosphere is important to precipitation acidity, corrosion, foliar damage, and the chemistry of the marine boundary layer. A synthesis of available information shows that the tropospheric reactive chlorine burden appears to be increasing by several percent per year. Coal combustion is one source, although there are substantial natural sources. Concentrations are anticipated to increase in the next several decades, particularly near urban areas in the rapidly developing countries.

Item #d95apr22

"Long-Term Changes of the Surface Air Temperature in Relation to Solar Inertial Motion," I. Charvátová (Geophys. Inst. AS CR, Bocní II, 141 31 Praha 4 - Sporilov, Czech Rep.), J. Strestír, Clim. Change, 29(3), 333-352, Mar. 1995.

An exploratory study of the possible influence (on surface air temperature) of the inertial motion of the sun around the center of mass of the solar system. Statistical examination of instrumental temperature records suggests a basic cycle of 180-200 years, which would coincide with the relative warmth observed during 1760-70 and 1940-50. During the period 1990 to 2040, the sun is in another period of chaotic motion, which may decrease temperature as much as 0.5·C. However, following 2040, the Sun will enter a very long period of ordered motion which occurs every 2160 years; a long-term temperature maximum similar to that observed during the last such period (80 B.C. to 160 A.D.) could ensue.

Item #d95apr23

"Forest Dieback in Russia: Causes, Distribution and Implications for the Future," O.N. Krankina (Dept. Forest Sci., Oregon State Univ., Corvallis OR 97331), R.K. Dixon et al., World Resour. Rev., 6(4), 524-534, Dec. 1994.

Over 20% of the world's forest resources and about half the boreal forest are located on Russian territory. The total area of dead forests there is 26.5 X 106 ha; further forest decline is expected to add about 2 X 106 ha per year. Natural disturbance accounts for most (70-99%) of the decline, but projected global climate change is likely to dramatically increase forest decline and dieback. Widespread and increasing weather-related dieback recently could indicate that shifts in climate may have started.