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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 8, NUMBER 12, DECEMBER 1995

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
IMPACTS: AGRICULTURE

Item #d95dec44

"A Reassessment of the Economic Effects of Global Climate Change on U.S. Agriculture," R.M. Adams (Dept. Agric. & Resour. Econ., Oregon State Univ., Corvallis OR 97331), R.A. Fleming et al., Clim. Change, 30(2), 147-167, June 1995.

Uses three general circulation models, along with plant science and water supply data, and economic modeling. The Goddard Institute of Space Studies model and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory QFlux model predict aggregate economic gains. The U.K. Meteorological Office model predicts losses. The yield-enhancing effects of atmospheric CO₂ are important in determining potential economic consequences. The magnitude of economic effects estimated in this study are a small percentage of U.S. agricultural value.

Item #d95dec45

"Insect Crop Pests and the Changing Climate," R. Harrington (Rothamsted Exp. Sta., Harpenden, Hertfordshire, UK), I.P. Woiwod, Weather, 50(6), 200-208, June 1995.

Uses 30 years of data for aphids and moths in the U.K. to detect long- and short-term trends in insect distribution, abundance and timing during relatively warm years. The data indicate that both aphid and moth problems in the U.K. will probably increase as temperature rises. The five aphid species studied so far have already changed consistent with climate change predictions. (Adapted from a report written for Greenpeace.)

Item #d95dec46

"Climate Change, Interannual Weather Differences and Conflicting Responses Among Crop Characteristics: The Case of Forage Quality," N.G. Seligman, T.R. Sinclair (ARS, USDA, Univ. Florida, POB 110840, Gainesville FL 32611), Global Change Biol., 1(2), 157-160, Apr. 1995.

Used a mechanistic simulation model of plant development and growth to analyze the forage response to climate change. When low soil nitrogen was not a constraining factor, higher CO₂ concentration caused dry matter and digestibility to increase and protein concentration and leaf:stem ratio to decrease. Increased temperature had opposite effects. The combined effects of CO₂ concentration and temperature are complex, and annual weather variations are dominant. Limited reliability of crop response predictions for future decades indicates that it may be prudent to direct research efforts toward preparing for a wide range of climatic contingencies.

Item #d95dec47

"Global Warming Effect on Agroclimatic Resources and Agricultural Productivity in Russia," O.D. Sirotenko (Russian Res. Inst. Agric. Meteor.), E.V. Abashina, Russian Meteor. & Hydrol., No. 4, 70-79, 1994.

Estimates the effect of global warming using both general circulation model scenarios and paleoclimatic reconstructions from the Eemian interglacial period, which yield conflicting results. The direct effect of increased atmospheric CO₂ could compensate in part for any agricultural losses, although this compensation will be diminished by future anthropogenic degradation of soils and increased conentrations of gases such as ozone. Whatever the effects of global warming, they will require a radical reconstruction of the entire agricultural system.