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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999

FROM VOLUME 8, NUMBER 12, DECEMBER 1995

PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
IMPACTS: ATMOSPHERIC BEHAVIOR

Item #d95dec48

"Climatic Response of the Indian Subcontinent to Doubled CO₂ Concentrations," B. Bhaskaran (Hadley Ctr. Clim. Pred., London Rd., Bracknell RG12 2SY, UK), J.F.B. Mitchell et al., Intl. J. Climatol., 15(8), 873-892, Aug. 1995.

A coupled climate model simulation of doubled CO₂ concentration predicts temperature increases of 1-4 K during winter and monsoon seasons. The monsoon circulation would shift by 10° latitude towards the north and intensify by about 10% in the warmer atmosphere. The interannual variability of monsoon onset dates and intraseasonal variability of monsoon rainfall would not be significantly different. However, the model predicts increased interannual variability of the monsoon rainfall and a greater number of heavy rainfall days during the monsoon.

Item #d95dec49

"Simulation of the Effect of Doubled Atmospheric CO₂ on the Climate of Northern and Central California," J.F. Stamm (Dept. Geol. Sci., Case Western Reserve Univ., 10900 Euclid Ave., Cleveland OH 44106), A. Gettelman, Clim. Change, 30(3), 295-325, July 1995.

A high-resolution local climate model predicts temperature increases of 3° C in January and 2° C in July, and precipitation increases of 37% in January and 46% in July.

Item #d95dec50

"Simulation of Daily Variability of Surface Temperature and Precipitation over Europe in the Current and 2 ´ CO₂ Climates Using the UKMO [U.K. Meteorological Office] Climate Model," J.M. Gregory (Hadley Ctr., Meteor. Off., London Rd., Bracknell RG12 2SY, UK), J.F.B. Mitchell, Quart. J. Royal Meteor. Soc., 121(526), 1451-1476, July 1995 Pt. B.

A general circulation model simulation predicts reductions in temperature variability in winter and increases in summer. Precipitation in all seasons will show a significant tendency to more dry days and to heavier events, with less frequent moderate daily amounts. Concludes that simulation of daily variability is strongly dependent on local physical processes and the parameterizations used to represent them.

Item #d95dec51

"Simulation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation-Like Variability in a Global AOGCM [Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model] and Its Response to CO₂ Increase," S. Tett (address ibid.), J. Clim., 8(6), 1473-1502, June 1995.

Compares the variability produced by the model with past observations, then applies the model to a doubled CO₂ scenario. Finds no significant change in the one- to ten-year interannual variance of sea surface temperature (SST) in the east Pacific, suggesting that the size of the SST anomalies during warm or cold events under doubled CO₂ may not be significantly different from those of today.

Item #d95dec52

"Greenhouse Warming and Threshold Temperature Events in Victoria, Australia," K.J. Hennessy (Div. Atmos. Res., Commonwealth Sci. & Indus. Res. Organization, P.B. 1, Mordialloc, Victoria 3195, Australia), A.B. Pittock, Intl. J. Climatol., 15(6), 591-612, June 1995.

A sensitivity study shows that up to four more summer days over 35° C will occur for a 1° C warming and more than twice that for a 3° C warming. A low-warming scenario study predicts at least 25% more days over 35° C in summer and spring and at least 25% fewer winter days below 0° C. A high-warming scenario study predicts 50-100% more extremely hot summer and spring days and 50-100% fewer extremely cold winter days. Although a reduction in frost frequency may benefit agriculture, more extremely hot temperatures may increase bushfire potential, human mortality, and heat stress to livestock and crops.

Item #d95dec53

"The Effect of Enhanced Greenhouse Warming on Winter Cyclone Frequencies and Strengths," S.J. Lambert (Canadian Ctr. Clim. Modeling & Anal., POB 1700, MS 3339, Victoria BC V8W 2Y2, Can.), J. Clim., 8(5), 1447-1452, May 1995 Pt. 2.

For doubled CO₂ a general circulation model predicts that, although the total number of cyclones will decrease, the frequency of intense cyclones will increase, with this behavior being more significant in the Northern Hemisphere. Examination of the storm tracks in current and doubled CO₂ simulations shows little difference in their geographical positions with global warming.

Item #d95dec54

"Analysis of Variability and Diurnal Range of Daily Temperature in a Nested Regional Climate Model: Comparison with Observations and Doubled CO₂ Results," L.O. Mearns (NCAR, POB 3000, Boulder CO 80307), F. Giorgi et al., Climate Dynamics, 11(4), 193-209, May 1995.

The regional climate model was nested in a general circulation model to analyze daily mean, diurnal range, and variability of surface air temperature in 3½-year-long climate simulations over the U.S. The most significant findings for CO₂ doubling are substantial decreases in daily variability in winter over large portions of the domain, and localized increases in summer. Causes for these changes are traced to fluctuation in the intensity and position of the jet stream.

Item #d95dec55

"Interannual Variability of Regional Climate and Its Change Due to the Greenhouse Effect," X.-Z. Liang (Atmos. Sci. Res. Ctr., State Univ. New York, Albany NY 12205), W.-C. Wang, M.P. Dudek, Global & Planetary Change, 10(1-4), 217-238, Apr. 1995.

Compares global climate model simulations with observations to identify model biases and climate change signals due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. The model agrees with observations of interannual variability for global surface air temperature, Arctic sea-ice extent, and regional variability of surface air temperature, sea level pressure and 500 mb height over about one-quarter of the observed data domains. However, substantial biases exist. Results indicate that regional changes in interannual variability are associated with mechanisms that depend on the variable and season.

Item #d95dec56

"Changes in Dimensions of Atmospheric Vortices Under Climatic Changes," V.M. Gryanik (Atmos. Phys. Inst., Russian Acad. Sci.), T.N. Doronina et al., Phys. Atmos. & Ocean, 29(5), 572-583, Apr. 1994.

Uses simple vortex models to analyze changes in synoptic vortices. Estimates the sensitivity of vortical circulation cell dimensions to temperature changes in flows with a horizontal and vertical velocity shear. Derives a formula for the sensitivity parameter for vertical dimensions of circulation cells.