February 28, 2007
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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999
FROM VOLUME 8, NUMBER 12, DECEMBER 1995
IMPACTS: ATMOSPHERIC BEHAVIOR
Response of the Indian Subcontinent to Doubled CO2 Concentrations,"
B. Bhaskaran (Hadley Ctr. Clim. Pred., London Rd., Bracknell RG12 2SY, UK),
J.F.B. Mitchell et al., Intl. J. Climatol.,
15(8), 873-892, Aug. 1995.
A coupled climate model simulation of doubled CO2 concentration
predicts temperature increases of 1-4 K during winter and monsoon seasons. The
monsoon circulation would shift by 10° latitude towards the north and
intensify by about 10% in the warmer atmosphere. The interannual variability of
monsoon onset dates and intraseasonal variability of monsoon rainfall would not
be significantly different. However, the model predicts increased interannual
variability of the monsoon rainfall and a greater number of heavy rainfall days
during the monsoon.
the Effect of Doubled Atmospheric CO2 on the Climate of Northern and
Central California," J.F. Stamm (Dept. Geol. Sci., Case Western Reserve
Univ., 10900 Euclid Ave., Cleveland OH 44106), A. Gettelman,
Clim. Change, 30(3), 295-325, July 1995.
A high-resolution local climate model predicts temperature increases of 3°
C in January and 2° C in July, and precipitation increases of 37% in
January and 46% in July.
Daily Variability of Surface Temperature and Precipitation over Europe in the
Current and 2 ´ CO2 Climates Using the UKMO [U.K.
Meteorological Office] Climate Model," J.M. Gregory (Hadley Ctr., Meteor.
Off., London Rd., Bracknell RG12 2SY, UK), J.F.B. Mitchell, Quart. J. Royal
Meteor. Soc., 121(526), 1451-1476, July 1995 Pt. B.
A general circulation model simulation predicts reductions in temperature
variability in winter and increases in summer. Precipitation in all seasons will
show a significant tendency to more dry days and to heavier events, with less
frequent moderate daily amounts. Concludes that simulation of daily variability
is strongly dependent on local physical processes and the parameterizations used
to represent them.
"Simulation of El
Niño-Southern Oscillation-Like Variability in a Global AOGCM
[Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model] and Its Response to CO2
Increase," S. Tett (address ibid.), J. Clim., 8(6),
1473-1502, June 1995.
Compares the variability produced by the model with past observations, then
applies the model to a doubled CO2 scenario. Finds no significant
change in the one- to ten-year interannual variance of sea surface temperature
(SST) in the east Pacific, suggesting that the size of the SST anomalies during
warm or cold events under doubled CO2 may not be significantly
different from those of today.
Warming and Threshold Temperature Events in Victoria, Australia," K.J.
Hennessy (Div. Atmos. Res., Commonwealth Sci. & Indus. Res. Organization,
P.B. 1, Mordialloc, Victoria 3195, Australia), A.B. Pittock,
Intl. J. Climatol., 15(6), 591-612, June 1995.
A sensitivity study shows that up to four more summer days over 35° C
will occur for a 1° C warming and more than twice that for a 3° C
warming. A low-warming scenario study predicts at least 25% more days over 35°
C in summer and spring and at least 25% fewer winter days below 0° C. A
high-warming scenario study predicts 50-100% more extremely hot summer and
spring days and 50-100% fewer extremely cold winter days. Although a reduction
in frost frequency may benefit agriculture, more extremely hot temperatures may
increase bushfire potential, human mortality, and heat stress to livestock and
"The Effect of
Enhanced Greenhouse Warming on Winter Cyclone Frequencies and Strengths,"
S.J. Lambert (Canadian Ctr. Clim. Modeling & Anal., POB 1700, MS 3339,
Victoria BC V8W 2Y2, Can.), J. Clim., 8(5), 1447-1452, May 1995
For doubled CO2 a general circulation model predicts that,
although the total number of cyclones will decrease, the frequency of intense
cyclones will increase, with this behavior being more significant in the
Northern Hemisphere. Examination of the storm tracks in current and doubled CO2
simulations shows little difference in their geographical positions with global
Variability and Diurnal Range of Daily Temperature in a Nested Regional Climate
Model: Comparison with Observations and Doubled CO2 Results,"
L.O. Mearns (NCAR, POB 3000, Boulder CO 80307), F. Giorgi et al.,
Climate Dynamics, 11(4), 193-209, May 1995.
The regional climate model was nested in a general circulation model to
analyze daily mean, diurnal range, and variability of surface air temperature in
3½-year-long climate simulations over the U.S. The most significant
findings for CO2 doubling are substantial decreases in daily
variability in winter over large portions of the domain, and localized increases
in summer. Causes for these changes are traced to fluctuation in the intensity
and position of the jet stream.
Variability of Regional Climate and Its Change Due to the Greenhouse Effect,"
X.-Z. Liang (Atmos. Sci. Res. Ctr., State Univ. New York, Albany NY 12205),
W.-C. Wang, M.P. Dudek, Global & Planetary Change, 10(1-4),
217-238, Apr. 1995.
Compares global climate model simulations with observations to identify
model biases and climate change signals due to the enhanced greenhouse effect.
The model agrees with observations of interannual variability for global surface
air temperature, Arctic sea-ice extent, and regional variability of surface air
temperature, sea level pressure and 500 mb height over about one-quarter of the
observed data domains. However, substantial biases exist. Results indicate that
regional changes in interannual variability are associated with mechanisms that
depend on the variable and season.
Dimensions of Atmospheric Vortices Under Climatic Changes," V.M. Gryanik
(Atmos. Phys. Inst., Russian Acad. Sci.), T.N. Doronina et al., Phys. Atmos.
& Ocean, 29(5), 572-583, Apr. 1994.
Uses simple vortex models to analyze changes in synoptic vortices. Estimates
the sensitivity of vortical circulation cell dimensions to temperature changes
in flows with a horizontal and vertical velocity shear. Derives a formula for
the sensitivity parameter for vertical dimensions of circulation cells.
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