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Global Climate Change Digest
A Guide to Information on Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Depletion
Published July 1988 through June 1999
FROM VOLUME 8, NUMBER 1, JANUARY 1995
PROFESSIONAL PUBLICATIONS...
OF GENERAL INTEREST: SCIENCE
Item #d95jan9
 Two
related items in Nature, 372(6501), Nov. 3, 1994:
"Rapid Climate Transitions in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere
Model," S. Rahmstorf (Inst. Meereskunde, Düsternbrooker Weg
20, 24105 Kiel, Ger.), 82-85. Recent geochemical data suggest
that rapid climate fluctuations in the North Atlantic at the end
of the last glacial resulted when ocean circulation switched
between a warm, deep mode and a cold, shallow mode. The
simulations presented here show this kind of transition,
triggered by a brief freshwater pulse, resulting in a drop in sea
surface temperature by up to 5·C within 10 years.
"Conveying Past Climates," E. Boyle (Dept. Earth
Sci., Mass. Inst. Technol., Cambridge MA 02139), A. Weaver,
41-42. The fact that in the previous study a small change in the
treatment of heat flux caused sweeping changes in the behavior of
the model is a cautionary lesson.
Item #d95jan10
"Smudging the Fingerprints," T.R. Karl (NCDC, NESDIS,
NOAA, 37 Battery Park Ave., Asheville NC 28801), Nature, 371(6496),
380-381, Sep. 29, 1994.
Comments on a recent paper concerning detection of climate
change by D.J. Karoly et al. (Dept. Math., Monash Univ., Clayton,
Vic., Australia 3168; tel: 613 565 44130; fax: 613 565 44030),
published in Climate Dynamics, 10, 97-105, 1994
(Springer). The method of Karoly et al. for detecting a possible
"fingerprint" of climate change entails testing for
differences between observed and modeled fields of vertical
temperature change in the upper troposphere and stratosphere.
They do not claim detection of climate change, but their work
illustrates many of the complexities of such an attempt. Karl
discusses these, and the scientific requirements for improving
our confidence in predicting the effects of rising levels of
greenhouse gases.
Item #d95jan11
"A
Report on Workshops: General Circulation Model Study of
Climate-Chemistry Interaction," W.-C. Wang (Atmos. Sci. Res.
Ctr., State Univ. New York, 100 Fuller Rd., Albany NY 12205),
I.S.A. Isaksen, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75(9),
1671-1675, Sep. 1994.
Summarizes discussions in two workshops held in 1992 and 1993
on the climatic effects of changes in levels of atmospheric ozone
and sulfate aerosols.
Item #d95jan12
"A
Comparison of GCM Sensitivity to Changes in CO2 and
Solar Luminosity," S. Marshall (Dept. Geog., Univ. N.
Carolina, Charlotte NC 28223), R.J. Oglesby et al., Geophys.
Res. Lett., 21(23), 2487-2490, Nov. 15, 1994.
Experiments with the NCAR climate model are compared using a
formal sensitivity analysis. Since the nature of the model
response does not seem to be sensitive to the nature of the
forcing, validation of model performance using warm climates of
the recent past may be a good indication of its ability to model
future warming from CO2.
Item #d95jan13
"Early Trends in the Global Tropospheric Abundance of
Hydrochlorofluorocarbon-141b and 142b," S.A. Montzka (CMDL,
NOAA, 325 Broadway, Boulder CO 80303), R.C. Myers et al., ibid.,
2483-2486.
Reports the first global time series of two HCFCs that are
considered interim CFC replacements because they also contain
chlorine. Results suggest that HCFCs are currently used
extensively to replace CFCs in selected applications; measured
tropospheric levels are significantly higher than expected based
on available emission estimates and consumption predictions.
Item #d95jan14
"Global Warming and the Phosphorus Cycle," N.P.
Tarasova (Mendeleev Univ. of Chem. Technol., Miusskaya Sq. 9,
Moscow 125190, Russia), Y.V. Smetannikov, V. Yu Balitsky, World
Resour. Rev., 6(3), 336-342, Oct. 1994.
Compares a general dynamic system for soils and several years
of field monitoring to determine how changes in climate and other
environmental conditions influence the phosphorous cycle. The
nutrient effects of phosphorous are highly temperature sensitive;
greenhouse-induced climate change could seriously alter the
cycle.
Item #d95jan15
Discussion of an article by Penner et al. (GCCD, p. 3,
March 1994) concerning the uncertainty of climate forcing by
anthropogenic aerosols, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75(12),
2312-2316, Dec. 1994.
Item #d95jan16
"Is
Sea Level Rising or Falling?" Nature, 371(6497),
481, Oct. 6, 1994. Comment on article by Sahagian et al. (GCCD,
p. 3, Feb. 1994) concerning the effects on sea level of
anthropogenic modifications to the hydrologic cycle.
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